Private habits of Putin (Russian Crisis)

[greengiraffe]

Military display in Pacific and Ukraine to show ‘Russia is back’
THE AUSTRALIAN NOVEMBER 13, 2014 9:50AM

G20 clear for policy
Military to show ‘Russia is back’Russian President Vladimir Putin in Vladivostok this week. Source: AP

G20 clear for policyMilitary to show ‘Russia is back’
RUSSIAN warships heading towards Australia and a new military build-up in the Ukraine region are a push by Vladimir Putin to show that “Russia is back”, according to former army chief Peter Leahy.

On the eve of the G20 leaders’ summit in Brisbane this weekend, which Mr Putin will attend, Russia is making its military presence felt in the Pacific and Europe.

Russian troops, tanks, artillery and air defence systems have entered east Ukraine, NATO’s military commander said, stoking fears of a return to all-out war in the region.

Mr Putin had made a clear decision to risk the peace of Europe by flouting international security principles, said General Philip Breedlove, Supreme Allied Commander Europe. Kiev said that its forces were preparing “for combat operations” to resume.

Meanwhile a fleet of four Russian warships that has arrived in international waters to Australia’s north is being monitored by the Australian Navy.

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MOREPetty, puerile and more than silly
MOREUkraine prepares for war as Russian tanks roll in
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The arrival of the ships comes after weeks of tension between Mr Putin and Tony Abbott, including the Prime Minister’s vow to “shirt-front” the Russian leader over the shooting down of flight MH17, which killed 38 Australians.

INTERACTIVE: The G20 explained

The Russian fleet’s arrival followed reported moves in recent weeks to send bombers towards NATO airspace in Europe, towards the US and over Japanese territorial waters, and a search by Sweden for a suspected Russian submarine in its waters.

The director of the National Security Institute at the University of Canberra and former Australian chief of army, Mr Leahy said the warships were “a demonstration of power, but I’d say it’s a less than subtle demonstration of power”.

“I think Russia is sending us a message. And as I’ve said, it’s less than subtle, but it’s saying it’s a maritime power, it’s got global reach, it’s got interests in this part of the world,” he told the ABC’s AM program today.

“But frankly I’d be more concerned about what’s happening over in the Ukraine.”

NATO’s General Breedlove said in Sofia: “We have seen columns of Russian equipment, primarily Russian tanks, Russian artillery, Russian air defence systems and Russian combat troops entering into Ukraine. There is no question any more about Russia’s direct military involvement in Ukraine.”

The military build-up represented “a clear decision by Moscow to reject the international principles that have shaped international security for over 25 years, the foundation for a Europe that is a whole, free and at peace”, he added.

The claims were swiftly dismissed as “unfounded” by Russia’s defence ministry.

The Kremlin denies that it is involved in the fighting that has rocked eastern Ukraine since early April. However, Russia openly gives political backing to the separatist east, and it is unclear how else the rebels could have acquired their heavy weaponry.

Mr Leahy said: “I think it is really a less than subtle demonstration that Russia is back.

“Some commentators are saying, I think quite correctly, that Russia’s angry. They’ve been down for a while, they’ve got a lot of pressure and they’re reacting to that pressure from NATO up against their borders in the area of Europe. But they’re also saying to us, righto, we’ve got interests in the Pacific. We can pursue them.”

Mr Leahy said Russia had sent warships to hover near international meetings before, off Singapore for an APEC meeting in 2009 and off San Francisco during a meeting in 2010.

“I rather think it’s likely to be pre-planned and it’s more associated with the APEC meeting in Brisbane rather than the comments from the Prime Minister (over MH17).”

Additional reporting: The Times, AFP

[bmann025]

Yes, the US oligarchs, their press and the Neocons just can't bear it, that Putin removed their oligarch friends from power in Russia.

And , of course, that he prevented Obama from bombing and destroying the rest of Syria and Iran and finally made the oligarch,
Neo-nazi spearheaded coup in Ukraine another fail. Read consortiumnews, they are independent, have the real stuff for 20 years now, from insiders in US intelligence and award winning investigative journalist Robert Parry.

Treating Putin Like a Lunatic

http://consortiumnews.com/2014/10/25/tre...a-lunatic/

[HitandRun]

Military display in Pacific and Ukraine to show ‘Russia is back’
THE AUSTRALIAN NOVEMBER 13, 2014 9:50AM
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Mr Putin had made a clear decision to risk the peace of Europe by flouting international security principles, said General Philip Breedlove, Supreme Allied Commander Europe. Kiev said that its forces were preparing “for combat operations” to resume.
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Additional reporting: The Times, AFP

Very funny leh... I thought it was the US with its allies, made a clear decision to risk the peace of Europe by overthrowing a democratically elected Viktor Yanukovych. This include turning a blind eye to the massacre of civilians in Eastern Ukraine by their dear friends in Kiev.

At the same time, the US and its allies are happy to blame ISIS for the problems in Iraq while conveniently sidestepping their involvement in funding ISIS against the Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria.

What's that? Yeah, yeah, I remember now, Lord Palmerston said so many years back:

“Nations have no permanent friends or allies, they only have permanent interests.”

[greengiraffe]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102182999

Ukraine, Putin and the options that remain
Everett Rosenfeld | @Ev_Rosenfeld
13 Hours Ago
CNBC.com


While reports circulate that Russian troops with heavy equipment are moving into eastern Ukraine, experts say the West is largely out of economic ways to retaliate against the Kremlin.

There are only three sectors that matter much to Russia's political elite—military weaponry, banking and energy—and the U.S. and Europe are hard-pressed to find new ways to penalize those industries in ways that aren't overly drastic, according to Lauren Goodrich, senior Eurasia analyst at global intelligence and advisory firm Stratfor.

"There's nothing that isn't a nuclear option left on the table," she said. "There isn't too much more to do."

Pro-Russian rebel military vehicle with Russian flag on top of it, rolls towards Donetsk, eastern Ukraine, Nov. 10, 2014.
Mstyslav Chernov | AP
Pro-Russian rebel military vehicle with Russian flag on top of it, rolls towards Donetsk, eastern Ukraine, Nov. 10, 2014.
With a ban on weapon sales, the Russian military sector has been hit about as hard as it can be, she said. Meanwhile, additional energy or financial sanctions would have massive global implications: The U.S. and Europe could ban energy companies' operations in Russia, but the Western business community would never allow that to happen, experts said.

Read MoreUkraine: The pain is far from over
"The U.S. business community does not want to go down that road," said Donald Jensen, fellow at Johns Hopkins University's Center for Transatlantic Relations. "And the EU especially doesn't want that."

On the financial industry side, sanctions could bar Visa, MasterCard and SWIFT (which manages international money transfers) from operating inside Russia. Such actions "would be a big problem for Russia," Goodrich said, explaining that they would virtually shut down the nation's digital commerce because that's "one of those sectors that takes years, if not decades, to build."
Such drastic measures could become possible if Russian President Vladimir Putin were to order a major incursion into the heart of Ukraine, Jensen said.


Politicians have floated the idea of minor sanctions, such as travel restrictions on more Russian officials, but these are unlikely to have any effect, experts told CNBC.

Ineffective, or otherwise, new sanctions may be on their way, according to some international observers.

As violence intensifies in the far east of Ukraine, "Brussels and Washington will hold Russia chiefly responsible, and they will expand existing sanctions in the coming months. This will not, however, change Putin's policy or calculus in Ukraine," Alexander Kliment, director of Russia and EM research at Eurasia Group, wrote in an email to CNBC.

One way to bolster existing sanctions' impact would be a law that permanently codifies them. Many expect such a bill to be passed by the U.S. Congress—especially when Republicans take control of the Senate in January—but it is unclear whether President Barack Obama would sign it.

"Once you pass a law, it's hard to repeal a law," Jensen said.

Read More Ukraine economy in 'free fall,' banking group says
But even that move could be ineffective without coordination with Europe—which is far from a sure bet.

"If the U.S. does it, it doesn't mean the Europeans will follow suit. And as long as it's just us, the action remains weak," Goodrich said. "You have to get the Europeans on board, and it's not an option for them."

The best course of action to keep economic pressure on Russia, both Goodrich and Jensen said, would be to maintain the current sanctions for years to come. But Europe may be less inclined to renew its restrictions when they expire next year, they said.

—CNBC's Dina Gusovsky contributed reporting.

[LionFlyer]

The current oil prices are more effective than the sanctions on the Russians. But they are the financial equivalent of a nuclear bomb versus the sanction 'smart bombs'.

A couple of us joke that its a conspiracy between the Saudis and the Americans; the Americans help take care of IS while the Saudis don't resist the sliding crude prices which take care of the Russians.

[BlueKelah]

Oil price down doesn't affect Putin much despite what the Western media publishes. He is still sending his warships to accompany him for G20 today. In fact making Russia poorer just makes Putin more powerful and popular back home. China is also a big ally of Russia which Russians can depend on.

On the other hand, if the oil price continues downwards, US shale projects will start to shut down and this will impact their O&G industry, increasing their unemployment.

US is now enpoverished by their high debt load. Just look at Japan, we know how that ends up

[LionFlyer]

I beg to differ.

Oil and gas revenue account for at least half of Russian revenues and the Russian Finance minister himself admitted recently[1] that their rearmament plan was based on the assumption that crude stays at $100 pb. With the ruble deflating and oil prices declining, it is hitting their pockets where it really hurts. As for China, they ain't doing much to directly support the Russian economy, but if any, it's more profiting from it.

Your question is really, what is Russia's end game with Ukraine? Would hurting their pockets stop the tanks from rolling and ships from sailing, because it doesn't seem to do squat now? I can't read the crystal ball but Putin seem to be the sort that don't want to lose face. He has committed his political capital to the Ukrainian adventure and he can only back away if he is seen as winning. It also means that he is prepared to let the economy go to shits if he has too.



Ref:
[1] http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/0...H420141007

[greengiraffe]

Russia braces for long economic war with the West

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard International Business Editor
1073 words
11 Nov 2014
The Telegraph Online
TELUK
English
The Telegraph Online © 2014. Telegraph Media Group Ltd.

Russia's central bank warns that capital outflows will reach $128bn this year and slashes its growth forecast to zero for 2015 as the ceasefire collapses in Ukraine

Russia is battening down the hatches for a long battle with the West, expecting sanctions to last until at least 2017 and admitting that capital flight has been significantly higher than previously claimed.

The central bank slashed its growth forecast for next year to zero and warned of near-recession conditions until late in the decade. It said capital outflows would reach $128bn this year.

The new realism ends the pretence that Russia is strong enough to weather the end of the commodity supercycle without suffering serious damage, or that Western sanctions are little more than an irritation. President Vladimir Putin had previously said the effect would dissipate within months.

It comes as the ceasefire in eastern Ukraine disintegrates and international monitors (OSCE) report large incursions of heavy weapons, tanks and troops moving into the Donbass region, clearly from Russia. The White House called it a “blatant violation” of the Minsk accord agreed in September.

The rouble soared 3pc despite the bad news after Mr Putin vowed to “take action” to stabilise the currency and denied any plans to impose capital controls. The rouble closed at 45.74 against the dollar, still down 32pc this year and clearly still in danger.

The central bank ditched its strategy of defending the currency with half-hearted measures, instead threatening liquidity curbs and a lightning strike on speculators to prevent an exchange rate crash.

The bank said the rouble would be allowed to float freely. This ends Russia’s dual-currency basket and its attempts to stem the currency slide with fixed dollops of intervention, $350m for every five kopecks, which became a one-way bet for traders. The bank has burned through $40bn of foreign reserves since the start of October.

Crucially, the bank vowed to act with force against “financial stability threats”. It will tighten rouble liquidity used by local speculators for bets on the dollar, evoking punishing memories of the 2008 crisis, when overnight rates briefly punched to 3,000pc and scorched those caught on the wrong side of the trade. “Rouble liquidity is being used for games on the currency markets,” said Elvira Nabiulina, the bank’s governor.

“The rouble is rallying because of a short squeeze but it doesn’t change the big picture,” said Tim Ash, at Standard Bank. “They’ve got their heads in the sand if they think this is driven by speculators. Fundamentals and war risk are behind this.”

One hedge fund manager said traders were wary of a sudden counter-strike by the authorities. “Russia can still put up a good fight. We can argue over whether Russia has enough reserves in the end, but it certainly has enough to destroy your position as a trader on any given day if it wants to. We’re not talking about Nigeria or Ghana here,” he said.

Yet Russia remains in the eye of the storm as sanctions bite deeper and the collapse of oil prices change the economic landscape. Mr Ash said Russia was already suffering from the “Dutch Disease” before the invasion of Crimea, addicted to commodity exports that hollowed out the country’s industry and pushed the rouble too high. Non-oil exports have fallen from 21pc to 8pc of GDP since 2000.

Urals crude has fallen from $115 to $83 a barrel since June, prompting speculation by Mr Putin that the move is part of an orchestrated political campaign by Russia's enemies, clearly meaning the US and Saudi Arabia. Otkritie Capital, in Moscow, said the fall in crude is likely to pull down EU gas prices by 22pc next year due to linkage in Gazprom contracts. This will further erode Russia's foreign revenues.

Renaissance Capital said in a report that the marginal cost of new oil projects in Russia is around $90, warning that the country could lose 350,000 barrels a day of output next year if "economic logic" prevails.

The central bank has to pick between two poisons. The slide of the rouble is stoking inflation and asphyxiating companies with dollar debts, yet currency intervention entails monetary tightening and risks a banking crisis. The authorities learned the hard way in 2008 that selling reserves into a recession has ferocious side-effects. “The money base contracts and it crushes the economy,” said Lars Christensen, at Danske Bank. “We think Russia is already in recession, and contraction is going to get worse over coming quarters.”

The central bank expects oil to average $95 next year, an optimistic forecast as China steers its economy away from heavy industry, and renewed supply floods the market from Libya, Iraq and perhaps soon Iran. Deutsche Bank says the “fiscal break-even” price needed to balance the Russian budget and pay for the country’s growing military machine is around $100.

Mrs Nabiulina said foreign reserves will drop to $422bn by December, $35bn lower than previous estimates. This is still ample but not as large as it seems. Russian banks, companies and state entities have $731bn of external debt, mostly in dollars. They must roll over $162bn in the next few months, yet global capital markets remain almost entirely shut.

Oil giant Rosneft has requested $49bn in state aid, while VTB bank has reportedly sought $4.8bn. The bank’s president Andrei Kostin said it was thinking of http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsb...tions.html to make it easier to raise capital.

Lubomir Mitov, from the Institute for International Finance, said it would be “very dangerous” if reserves fell below $330bn. Foreigners have pulled back almost entirely and the financing gap has reached 3pc of GDP each year. A further fall in oil prices would push Russia into a current account deficit. “Russia is already in a perfect storm,” he said.

Circumstances are very different from 1998, when the crash in oil prices pushed Russia into default on its external debts. Yet the trauma of that episode is still fresh in people’s minds, and the illusion of high reserves can evaporate fast. “If they lose another 100bn in three months they’ve got a problem. People would start to panic, it could turn vicious very fast,” said Mr Ash.


Telegraph Media Group Ltd.

Document TELUK00020141110eaba005bq

[BlueKelah]

Getting off topic, should start another thread covering Russia economy?'

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[greengiraffe]

Related lah mate... Putin is Russia, Russia is Putin until another leader emerges...

Getting off topic, should start another thread covering Russia economy?'

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