NYT: Welcome to the Everything Boom, or Maybe the Everything Bubble

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#1
Welcome to the Everything Boom, or Maybe the Everything Bubble
Date
July 8, 2014 - 9:04AM

Around the world, nearly every asset class is expensive by historical standards.
Around the world, nearly every asset class is expensive by historical standards. Photo: Peter Riches
In Spain, where there was a debt crisis just two years ago, investors are so eager to buy the government’s bonds that they recently accepted the lowest interest rates since 1789.

In New York, the Art Deco office tower at One Wall Street sold in May for $585 million, only three months after the going wisdom in the real estate industry was that it would sell for more like $466 million, the estimate in one industry tip sheet.

In France, a cable-television company called Numericable was recently able to borrow $11 billion, the largest junk bond deal on record — and despite the risk usually associated with junk bonds, the interest rate was a low 4.875 per cent.

Welcome to the Everything Boom — and, quite possibly, the Everything Bubble. Around the world, nearly every asset class is expensive by historical standards. Stocks and bonds; emerging markets and advanced economies; urban office towers and Iowa farmland; you name it, and it is trading at prices that are high by historical standards relative to fundamentals. The inverse of that is relatively low returns for investors.

The phenomenon is rooted in two interrelated forces. Worldwide, more money is piling into savings than businesses believe they can use to make productive investments. At the same time, the world’s major central banks have been on a six-year campaign of holding down interest rates and creating more money from thin air to try to stimulate stronger growth in the wake of the financial crisis.

“We’re in a world where there are very few unambiguously cheap assets,” said Russ Koesterich, chief investment strategist at BlackRock, one of the world’s biggest asset managers, who spends his days scouring the earth for potential opportunities for investors to get a better return relative to the risks they are taking on. “If you ask me to give you the one big bargain out there, I’m not sure there is one.”

But frustrating as the situation can be for investors hoping for better returns, the bigger question for the global economy is what happens next. How long will this low-return environment last? And what risks are being created that might be realised only if and when the Everything Boom ends?

Safe assets, like United States Treasury bonds, have been offering investors paltry returns for years, ever since the global financial crisis.

What has changed in the past two years is that risky assets, like stocks, junk bonds, real estate and emerging market bonds, have also joined the party.

Want to buy shares of American companies? At the current level of the Standard & Poor’s 500 index, every dollar invested in stocks buys you about 5.5 cents of corporate earnings, down from 7.4 cents two years ago — and lower than just before the global financial crisis in 2007-8.

Prefer a more solid asset? The price of office and apartment building has risen similarly; office space in central business districts nationwide costs $300 per square foot on average, up from $147 in early 2010, according to Real Capital Analytics. In Manhattan, an investor in an office building can expect rent payments after expenses to add up to only a 4.4 per cent return, known as the capitalisation rate, lower than even in 2007, the top of the last boom.

What about overseas investments? Spain and other Southern European countries that were the nexus of the European debt crisis are not the only places where bond rates have plummeted (even Greece was able to issue bonds at favourable rates earlier this year). Emerging markets, which generally have higher interest rates because of higher inflation and less political stability, are offering record low interest rates as well. Bonds issued by the governments of Brazil and Malaysia, for example, are currently yielding only around 4 per cent.

The high valuations now aren’t as extreme as those of stocks in 2000 or houses in 2006; rather, what is new is that it applies to such a breadth of assets. In 2000, when the stock market was, with hindsight, a speculative bubble, other assets like bonds, emerging market investments and real estate looked reasonable.

The Everything Boom brings obvious economic risks. In the most pleasant outcome, global economic growth would pick up, causing today’s expensive assets to begin looking more reasonably priced. But other outcomes are also possible, including busts in one or more markets that could create a new wave of economic ripples in a world economy still not fully recovered from the last crisis.

There are two principal reasons behind this low-return environment, though people might dispute which is the cause and which is the effect.

Global central banks have been on an unprecedented campaign of trying to stimulate growth through low interest rates and of buying assets with newly created money. If the Federal Reserve keeps its short-term interest rate target near zero until next year, as most officials of the central bank expect, it will have maintained the zero-interest-rate policy for seven years. The Fed held $900 billion in assets in August 2008; now that number is $4.4 trillion and counting, with the third round of asset-buying set to expire at the end of the year. Central banks in Britain, Japan and the euro zone have pursued similar policies.

In a view widespread in the capital markets, the low returns are a by-product of those low rates. The Fed and other central banks have siphoned off trillions of dollars’ worth of the supply of global investments, and private investors are having bidding wars for whatever is left.

“Interest rates are so low,” said Peter J. Clare, a managing director and co-head of the United States buyout group at private equity firm the Carlyle Group. “There are few other attractive places where investors can direct their money, so it drives investor money into equity markets. It’s just the most basic of supply and demand equations: When there’s more demand, it drives up the price and pushes valuations where they are today.”

But while central banks can set the short-term interest rate, over the long run rates reflect a price that matches savers who want to earn a return on their cash and businesses and governments that wish to invest that savings — whether in new factories or office buildings or infrastructure.

In this sense, high global asset prices could be the result of a world in which there is simply too much savings floating around relative to the desire or ability of businesses and others to invest that savings productively. It is a reassertion of a phenomenon that the former Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke (among others) described a decade ago as a “global savings glut".

But to call it that may not get things quite right either. What if the problem is not too much savings, but a shortage of good investment opportunities to deploy that savings? For example, businesses may feel that capital expenditures are unwise because they won’t pay off.

Mr Bernanke himself has been wrestling with the possibility that the original framing of a global savings glut got the problem in reverse.

“I may have made a mistake in trying to assign a name,” Mr Bernanke, now at the Brookings Institution, said in an interview. “A glut means more than is wanted. But it doesn’t necessarily arise because people want to save more. It can be because they invest less.

“It’s entirely possible that if you look at the world, you have slow growing advanced economies, China cutting back on capital investments, that the rate of return is just going to be low.”

If this analysis of the world is correct, investors have an unpleasant choice: consign themselves to returns lower than the historical norm, or chase ever more obscure investments that might offer an extra percentage point or two of return.

- New York Times
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#2
http://www.theage.com.au/business/commen...zt1x6.html

Reaching for the stars in cheap money free-for-all
Date
July 9, 2014

Michael Pascoe
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Dutch interest rates have not been lower in 500 years
Dutch interest rates have not been lower in 500 years Photo: Penny Bradfield
My local optometrist keeps telling me monetary policy should be tightened, that it’s not healthy for rates to be this low. The Bank of International Settlements more than agrees with him, but on a global scale.

It’s one thing for the central bankers’ central bank to warn of cheap money distorting the world’s markets, but it’s another for more comprehensible anecdotes to start adding up to the trillions. In short order:

At the riskier end of the bond market, the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global High Yield Index has soared to more than US$2 trillion. Last year a record US$477 billion worth of high-yield bonds were sold, but US$340 billion worth have been offloaded in just the first half of 2014.

Dutch interest rates have never been lower, not in 500 years.

Fuelled by cheap money, there are more American mergers and acquisitions underway than there were at the previous peak in the heady pre-GFC days of 2007.

The Japanese government is lending trillions of yen to Japanese banks for almost nothing, at just 0.1 per cent, but the banks are turning around and giving the money back to the government by purchasing bonds at a fraction more than almost nothing. In the past three weeks, the yield on four-year JGBs has fallen from 0.131 per cent to 0.108 per cent.

The Australian mortgage securitisation business is back in full swing with second-tier banks able to get as much funding as they desire at record low rates.

Spanish and Italian bonds have been trading on record low yields. For all their problems, Rome and Madrid can borrow for around 2.7 per cent – substantially less than the AAA Australian government.

According to Bloomberg, US radio broadcaster Clear Channel Communications Inc has a credit rating so low that it implies default is almost a certainty, but so many investors wanted the company’s junk bonds that it more than doubled the initial size of a May issue to US$850 million.

Westfield spin-off, Scentre Management, owner of Australian and New Zealand shopping malls, is barely weeks old, but was nearly knocked over in the rush for its inaugural transaction, raising $2.8 billion in Europe overnight. Scentre is paying just 1.13 per cent more for sterling than the UK government does.

For BNP Paribas’ Australian operation, the Scentre deal was part of more than $10 billion it’s been involved in raising for Australian companies in the past three months, led by $7 billion for Gina Rinehart’s Roy Hill project which it bills as the world’s largest project finance raising.

The global search for yield is making it easier and cheaper for Australia’s banks to borrow overseas, but it’s also increasingly easy for Australian corporates to by-pass the banks and issue their own bonds. The size and quality of company necessary to attract foreign lenders continues to fall.

The same Bloomberg story cited above reminds readers Ecudor’s socialist president forced a default during the GFC, labelling creditors “true monsters”, but last month bond buyers happily loaned him $US2 billion.
With the junk bond industry booming, and M&A activity bubbling and the major central banks promising to keep money very cheap, it’s no surprise that Wall Street set record highs this week. It’s another fabulous party, but it’s beginning to make China’s shadow banking look safe by comparison.

Funds manager Mike Mangan, in his newsletter for 2MG Asset Management clients, put this perspective on the unprecedented level of cheap money:

“Meteorologists (and insurers) speak of the 1 in a 100 year flood. But what is happening in western economies (and Japan) is not even close to a 1 in a 100 year event. It has not happened in centuries and I would argue human civilisation hasn’t experienced the sort of monetary conditions we now bear witness to, since the Bronze Age. How and when it all ends, no honest person knows. But I strongly suspect that when it ends, it will end badly.

“Low interest rates are a fantastic boon for the already wealthy and risk takers. But it is problematic for savers. Take the elderly. They are at an age where they don’t wish to take further risks.

“Whilst every red blooded capitalist should be celebrating record low interest rates, interest rates at 500 year lows suggest massive capital misallocation will follow.

“What’s that I hear you say? London home prices jumped the most in 27 years in the June quarter and are now 30 per cent above the prior 2007 peak. And someone paid £2.5465m for Tracey Emin’s bed. Charles Saatchi bought it in 2000 for £150,000.”

Put in the global context, Australia’s concerns with low rates fuelling housing speculation appear minor, particularly with the RBA and APRA pointedly standing by. Our stock market also hasn’t gone through the roof. It may be close to “fully priced”, but it still has a relationship with reality and yield.

Nonetheless, Australian companies and individuals will increasingly be caught up in the cheap money party. More Australian companies will become takeover targets. The dubious end of the investment market will heat up in the search for yield.

The BIS warnings about dislocated markets are coming more frequently. The world’s major central bankers, sailing in totally unchartered waters, have been using the rum ration to instil some Dutch courage in the crew. The question is whether they will be able to withdraw the rum ration before losing control of the ship.

And mentioning Dutch courage is an excuse to conclude with Mike Mangan waxing lyrical about the long sweep of history that has brought the Netherlands to this point:

“In 500 years, Dutch interest rates have never been lower. That history covers the Tudors, the Dutch 80 year War of Independence, 30 Year War (a war which claimed the lives of 25 to 40 per cent of all Germans and Bohemians), Tulip mania (and bust), three Anglo Dutch wars, the simultaneous South Sea & Mississippi bubbles, 7 Year War, empire building in the Dutch East Indies, American & French revolutions, Napoleon (interest rates hit an all time high), 19th century peace & prosperity, 20th century wars and Depression. Yet in our very own time, Dutch interest rates have never been lower. It’s true, we are reaching for the stars.”

Michael Pascoe is a BusinessDay contributing editor.
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