US Economic News

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These are really anecdotal evidence that inflation will persist in time to come.

Amazon to cover 100% of college tuition for U.S. hourly employees

Amazon is offering to pay the full cost of college tuition, including books and fees, for its 750,000 hourly U.S. employees.

Amazon is the latest large U.S. company to dangle perks such as education benefits or more pay in light of the competitive job market.
Looking at 6 Indicators to Gauge if S&P500 is Peaking?

The market has been on a tear ever since its huge 35% correction in March 2020- S&P index drop from 3400 to 2200- due to the Covid 19 pandemic. It has more than doubled from the bottom to its current level at 4650.

So what’s the outlook ahead?

Is it on a never-ending trajectory to the moon?

We will be looking at 6 indicators and the chart of S&P to give us some indication if things are getting way too hot that will lead to the imminent meltdown.

Click Here to Read More:
There is already a decline in GDP in the latest quarterly figure. So a recession is looming as the definition is 2 quarters of declining GDP for a recession to happen technically.

What we should worry about would be how it would affect the equity markets?

The result is usually a market decline that could last for a year or so.

In this article, we look at the historical implication of an inverted yield curve that has strong prowess in predicting recessions. The yield curve has inverted on 1/4/2022.

Here is the link for the article:
Wage inflation has to be going out of control pretty soon. Will Labor soon have the upper hand over capital again?

15 of the Craziest Charts Right Now

Markets are doing what they do. Here are 15 of the craziest charts I’m looking at these days:

12. This is a bizarre economy. The gap between job openings and the number of people who are unemployed is wild:
US inflation is likely to peak YoY in 2Q22 because of the higher base in 2021 with Powell's famous Transient comment... Market is already looking to Fed hiking 50bp in June and July so recession coming in 2Q23. That's probably baked in by the markets. That's like 200bp hike within 6 months plus QT. Compare that with BoE 4 hikes that started in Dec21 with the FTSE relatively flat (excluding GBP depreciation) and we can see how Powell lost the script AGAIN

The concern is whether they will hike 50bp again in Sept or 75bp prior as Fed might be concerned of CPI sticky at 2-5% even as CPI likely to trend towards 5% by Dec 2022. If Fed hikes 25bp or stay in Sept and decided to wait and see I think markets will be relieved. But I'm concern about how clueless Powell can be.
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward

Think Asset-Business-Structure (ABS)
Jamie Dimon: Fed Has No Choice But to Do QT
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