Alibaba

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Cracking down on tax evasion seems reasonable. Not sure they are starting to clamp down on live streamers specifically.

That said, all things considered, seems China is heading closer and closer towards a "closed, control, command economy" of olden times. And, TBH, if history is any indication, such economies are destined to fail:

“If you buy a business just because it’s undervalued, then you have to worry about selling it when it reaches its intrinsic value. That’s hard. But if you can buy a few great companies, then you can sit on your ass. That’s a good thing.” - Charlie Munger
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(21-12-2021, 12:47 AM)CY09 Wrote: I would roughly guess what XJP is doing is to kill off speculations and agents (such as property, data marketing and streamers) who add little value to the chain. Essentially he does not endorse viral marketing or the dark arts of targeting consumer's soft spot to entice people to consume (think of the tuition industry). XJP is going after true quality growth which is very very unachievable in today's context. He is okay if alibaba acts as the virtual marketplace but not okay if they employ psychological tricks to entice people to buy--> the crudest example will be for bikini girls to dance on top of tables to sell beer, similar to what we see on some Facebook platforms in Singapore and streaming (and Hong Lim Food Centre).

Without layers of redundant jobs in between the product creator and end user, employment for all is difficult to achieve. This reduces the circulation of money going through many hands. To chase after real quality job creation, the only few shining light are cloud computing, semi conductor production, high end manufacturing and invention of new products. The other way is to increase the pay of blue collar workers such as nurses, craftsman and construction workers. This is where his common prosperity plan comes in

With a large number of China graduates graduating every year and companies such as Alibaba and Tencent being very efficient to use their own technology products as force multipliers, the Chinese premier is going to find it tough to continue this difficult path. This is why a certain small country we know has been growing its wealth mgmt and insurance industry since 2009 because it has been difficult to find quality jobs; instead setting up offices which encourages trading, wealth hoarding, financial well being courses and flipping has been the way it has kept unemployment low. It has been an effective policy in creating well paying employment for its own citizens, albeit causing some form of wealth inequality. It is a complete 180 policy from what XJP is likely striving for now

Your views are interesting and insightful.  

But why fear being specific/naming the small country? I am 85% sure which country you are referring to but not 100% certain.


"This is why a certain small country we know has been growing its wealth mgmt and insurance industry since 2009 because it has been difficult to find quality jobs; instead setting up offices which encourages trading, wealth hoarding, financial well being courses and flipping has been the way it has kept unemployment low. It has been an effective policy in creating well paying employment for its own citizens, albeit causing some form of wealth inequality. It is a complete 180 policy from what XJP is likely striving for now"
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In the stock market, the company is now valued at $302 billion.

Its e commerce division (local+ global) had USD 10 billion profits in the latest half of financial results (which factors the Chinese $2.8 billion Fine). Assuming the first half performance is replicated in 2H, this means Alibaba is currently selling at 15 x P/E. This excludes the future growth potential of its cloud computing, international e commerce, logistics segments.

Wonder what the market or I am missing. Probably market participants are now afraid that its China e commerce division will perform worse because Alibaba is in the CCP's wrong books and CCP may wipe off their billion in annual profits

Personally, I feel that its cloud computing business will become a ten billion profit generator like Amazon's (assuming no CCP intervention). However with CCP likely to intervene because Alibaba is not a government linked company, my prediction is that it will only generate a billion dollar annually. However, this is a good enough turnaround. This will be a turnaround from a 500 million loss to 1 billion profits.

All in all Alibaba, as a conglomerate will be generating about US $23-24 billion on an annual basis. The current valuation seems a tad too low. *If CCP leaves Alibaba alone, it could be generating $35-40 billion in profits annually (which is as large as Amazon).

Source (page 23): https://alibabagroup.com/en/news/press_pdf/p211118.pdf

<vested>
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Alibaba Exploring Options for Weibo Stake With State Firm
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...state-firm
Quote:*Technology giant in discussions with Shanghai Media Group
*Chinese authorities want Alibaba to sell its media assets

Anecdotally spoken with many Chinese friends and people with business relations in China over the Christmas Holidays.

It confirms my view that the political scene in China has grown much more authoritarian in the past year, affecting confidence of businesses in China.

Foreign investors and business owners alike have grown wary of the CCP, and are taking preventive measures (eg. cutting back both business and investment exposures).

Would expect current trend to continue.
“If you buy a business just because it’s undervalued, then you have to worry about selling it when it reaches its intrinsic value. That’s hard. But if you can buy a few great companies, then you can sit on your ass. That’s a good thing.” - Charlie Munger
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Charlie Munger's Daily Journal nearly doubles stake in China's Alibaba
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business...ba-2415431

Quote:Daily Journal Corp, the publishing and technology company in which Warren Buffett's longtime business partner Charlie Munger is chairman, said it has nearly doubled its stake in Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding.

The U.S. company raised its holding by 99.3per cent to 602,060 sponsored American Depository Shares as of Dec. 31, Daily Journal said in a regulatory filing on Tuesday, making the stake worth about US$72 million as of Jan. 4.

..
“If you buy a business just because it’s undervalued, then you have to worry about selling it when it reaches its intrinsic value. That’s hard. But if you can buy a few great companies, then you can sit on your ass. That’s a good thing.” - Charlie Munger
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China’s digital yuan will be the currency of choice at the Beijing Winter Olympics, despite calls for athletes to avoid it
https://fortune.com/2022/01/11/china-dig...-olympics/
Quote:When Beijing hosts the Winter Olympics starting Feb. 4, athletes, staff, and other visitors will have just three payment options for shopping in the city’s COVID-era Olympic Village: cash, Visa, and one of the world’s first central bank digital currencies, the digital yuan.

Implicit "ban" of AliPay and WechatPay for Beijing Winter Olympics.

More of such "ban" to come?
“If you buy a business just because it’s undervalued, then you have to worry about selling it when it reaches its intrinsic value. That’s hard. But if you can buy a few great companies, then you can sit on your ass. That’s a good thing.” - Charlie Munger
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(12-01-2022, 06:04 PM)Wildreamz Wrote: China’s digital yuan will be the currency of choice at the Beijing Winter Olympics, despite calls for athletes to avoid it
https://fortune.com/2022/01/11/china-dig...-olympics/
Quote:When Beijing hosts the Winter Olympics starting Feb. 4, athletes, staff, and other visitors will have just three payment options for shopping in the city’s COVID-era Olympic Village: cash, Visa, and one of the world’s first central bank digital currencies, the digital yuan.

Implicit "ban" of AliPay and WechatPay for Beijing Winter Olympics.

More of such "ban" to come?

Why didn’t you include Unionpay, JCB, Mastercard, Maestro, American Express, PayPal, Apple Pay, Google Pay etc. in your statement?
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(12-01-2022, 10:51 PM)D123 Wrote: Why didn’t you include Unionpay, JCB, Mastercard, Maestro, American Express, PayPal, Apple Pay, Google Pay etc. in your statement?

Hi D123, in China WechatPay and Alipay is the defecto payment method. Not including it as an option entirely, including for Chinese athletes and staff, for the entire event. Is a big deal.
“If you buy a business just because it’s undervalued, then you have to worry about selling it when it reaches its intrinsic value. That’s hard. But if you can buy a few great companies, then you can sit on your ass. That’s a good thing.” - Charlie Munger
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