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(30-07-2022, 02:22 PM)dreamybear Wrote: Well, I happen to come across an online personality who "all-in" Alibaba
If one decide to live by the sword, they will either prosper or die by it too. There isn't really any in between.
That said, the person/s that should be doing "all in" on Alibaba should only be Jack Ma and his fellow co-founders. At least they have control and earn a salary operating it. So you are in business already, rather than investing as an OPMI. It is not even Buffett's type of investing to start with.
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If i had the power of hindsight or looking into the future, I would be willing to "all in" alibaba or any stock.
Unfortunately I don't have such superpowers, however, on the matter on "all in", I am actually willing to stand by a few temasek companies for all in such as ST engg or DBS, if i have a decade or two to live. This is because of their strategic importance to Singapore's current government, albeit they are not going to be huge returns since people know how their importance and as a too big to fail status.
On Alibaba, it is a wonderful company (i) generating 10 time free cash flow, (ii) have an expanding cloud computing business similar to AWS, has the joint most used China Map called A-map, the google maps equivalent in China and backbone of many logistics companies route mapping now, (iii) ANT financial whose value puts it among the top 3 most valuable state owned bank with a credit writing model which is used by China's smaller financial institutions ( a model of Upstart holding+ creditbureauasia)
HOWEVER, it is operating in China and is definitely not in the favored list of the communist party. That alone negates the potential Alibaba has and its current solid fundamentals it has as a base.
Without the political risk of the Chinese Communist Government, I believe that Alibaba will be valued between Amazon and Alphabet given the mix of business Alibaba has (approximately a US$1.4 billion valuation).
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(31-07-2022, 11:13 PM)CY09 Wrote: If i had the power of hindsight or looking into the future, I would be willing to "all in" alibaba or any stock.
Unfortunately I don't have such superpowers, however, on the matter on "all in", I am actually willing to stand by a few temasek companies for all in such as ST engg or DBS, if i have a decade or two to live. This is because of their strategic importance to Singapore's current government, albeit they are not going to be huge returns since people know how their importance and as a too big to fail status.
On Alibaba, it is a wonderful company (i) generating 10 time free cash flow, (ii) have an expanding cloud computing business similar to AWS, has the joint most used China Map called A-map, the google maps equivalent in China and backbone of many logistics companies route mapping now, (iii) ANT financial whose value puts it among the top 3 most valuable state owned bank with a credit writing model which is used by China's smaller financial institutions ( a model of Upstart holding+ creditbureauasia)
HOWEVER, it is operating in China and is definitely not in the favored list of the communist party. That alone negates the potential Alibaba has and its current solid fundamentals it has as a base.
Without the political risk of the Chinese Communist Government, I believe that Alibaba will be valued between Amazon and Alphabet given the mix of business Alibaba has (approximately a US$1.4 billion valuation).
I reckon without the chinese Gov, Alibaba wouldnt be the size it is in China. Amazon would have like Apple taken a big chunk of its business.
Its too late to "all in" on any of these growth stocks, you'll have to invest in the next generation of tech, which some say is in Artificial Intelligence.
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(31-07-2022, 11:13 PM)CY09 Wrote: Unfortunately I don't have such superpowers, however, on the matter on "all in", I am actually willing to stand by a few temasek companies for all in such as ST engg or DBS, if i have a decade or two to live. This is because of their strategic importance to Singapore's current government, albeit they are not going to be huge returns since people know how their importance and as a too big to fail status.
The last time someone touted about "strategic importance" on the local scene, It was about TuaSpring, owned by Hyflux.
But of course, this is a fact! But as Specuvestor mentioned, "Truths are based on facts but facts might not be truths".
It is a fact that it is of strategic importance and also too big to fail. But the truth is that this doesn't guarantee that shareholders wouldn't lose their capital. I would argue that "strategic importance and also too big to fail" isn't even assurance that I wouldn't lose my capital!
Due to its idiocrasies, things are not looking good for China at the moment. But the cure for high (communistic) ideologies, are high communistic results. Hopefully, all stakeholders would have learnt where the red lines are now, and will in future, toe along those lines and work well together (just like how dense competition eventually evolves into oligopolies).
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Over the last 2 years, I have learnt that under the current regime (Xi administration specifically, not the CCP or authoritarian regimes in general), there is no such thing as "too big to fail", there might even be such thing as "too big to succeed".
Peace. 2c.
(ex-shareholder)
“If you buy a business just because it’s undervalued, then you have to worry about selling it when it reaches its intrinsic value. That’s hard. But if you can buy a few great companies, then you can sit on your ass. That’s a good thing.” - Charlie Munger
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01-08-2022, 01:00 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-08-2022, 01:04 PM by specuvestor.)
I've mentioned that Tencent is owned by South African company and Alibaba by Japanese. If you are a regulator you will be concerned that these 2 controls your financial transactions and more
Public goods and private goods are not the same considerations and policy makers have to balance between privatising the win but socialising the loss. That inherent power is what makes cronyism so profitable. Policies and capitalism also have very different timelines. Singapore had experienced the problem of mistakenly aligning policies with capitalism including SMRT and privatisation of coffee shops etc. These issues didn't have roots yesterday or last year.
Thanks Weijian let me elaborate on facts might not be truths. I've told a couple of people that Gazprom likely will do well next 20 years. That's a fact. But the truth is the existing shareholders might not be around. Ditto for TuasSpring. In Chapter 11 shareholders might hope for scraps but I doubt so in Russian regime; The Structure layer is different.
That said I think the regulatory overhang on Baba is likely to have peaked (hoping to be roughly right than precisely wrong) and they are preparing for ANT IPO again by disassociating with Baba. Under Xi he is also trying to lean back to balance after Jiang's capitalistic tilt. It will not be easy feat but do note many of the "crashes" are self-induced rather than wait for market to induce. They learn from Japan and US errors.
(01-08-2022, 09:43 AM)weijian Wrote: (31-07-2022, 11:13 PM)CY09 Wrote: Unfortunately I don't have such superpowers, however, on the matter on "all in", I am actually willing to stand by a few temasek companies for all in such as ST engg or DBS, if i have a decade or two to live. This is because of their strategic importance to Singapore's current government, albeit they are not going to be huge returns since people know how their importance and as a too big to fail status.
The last time someone touted about "strategic importance" on the local scene, It was about TuaSpring, owned by Hyflux.
But of course, this is a fact! But as Specuvestor mentioned, "Truths are based on facts but facts might not be truths".
It is a fact that it is of strategic importance and also too big to fail. But the truth is that this doesn't guarantee that shareholders wouldn't lose their capital. I would argue that "strategic importance and also too big to fail" isn't even assurance that I wouldn't lose my capital!
Due to its idiocrasies, things are not looking good for China at the moment. But the cure for high (communistic) ideologies, are high communistic results. Hopefully, all stakeholders would have learnt where the red lines are now, and will in future, toe along those lines and work well together (just like how dense competition eventually evolves into oligopolies).
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward
Think Asset-Business-Structure (ABS)
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Peaked or not, no evidence that moving forward, Alibaba will be "allowed" to grow to multi-trillion dollars market cap, without catching ire of CCP, and tons of lawsuits again. As long as Xi is in power.
IMHO, many easier game to play in this market.
“If you buy a business just because it’s undervalued, then you have to worry about selling it when it reaches its intrinsic value. That’s hard. But if you can buy a few great companies, then you can sit on your ass. That’s a good thing.” - Charlie Munger
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01-08-2022, 02:17 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-08-2022, 02:20 PM by BlueKelah.)
Not looking good for baba now, plus first negative quarter of rev growth coming soon will show its chinese growth story is probably peaked by now.
We could also be seeing the end of the chinese consumer growth story now with property finally crashing well. Japan 2.0? its been a while now lol... 
Alibaba Striving to Maintain US, H.K. Listing Status
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yoK3hDtUaQQ
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Alibaba's revenue deceleration does not mean that the china consumer growth has slowed or peaked
In fact, JD, Douyin and PDD are experiencing large growth, don't ask me why alibaba's revenue is falling while the other 3 are still growing. If you able to link the information, you might be able to know why
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(31-07-2022, 11:13 PM)CY09 Wrote: If i had the power of hindsight or looking into the future, I would be willing to "all in" alibaba or any stock.
Unfortunately I don't have such superpowers, however, on the matter on "all in", I am actually willing to stand by a few temasek companies for all in such as ST engg or DBS, if i have a decade or two to live. This is because of their strategic importance to Singapore's current government, albeit they are not going to be huge returns since people know how their importance and as a too big to fail status.
On Alibaba, it is a wonderful company (i) generating 10 time free cash flow, (ii) have an expanding cloud computing business similar to AWS, has the joint most used China Map called A-map, the google maps equivalent in China and backbone of many logistics companies route mapping now, (iii) ANT financial whose value puts it among the top 3 most valuable state owned bank with a credit writing model which is used by China's smaller financial institutions ( a model of Upstart holding+ creditbureauasia)
HOWEVER, it is operating in China and is definitely not in the favored list of the communist party. That alone negates the potential Alibaba has and its current solid fundamentals it has as a base.
Without the political risk of the Chinese Communist Government, I believe that Alibaba will be valued between Amazon and Alphabet given the mix of business Alibaba has (approximately a US$1.4 billion valuation).
"if i have a decade or two to live. "
You do not have a decade or two to live?
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