Noble Group

[Behappyalways]

Noble Shares Plunge After Loss as Its Accounting Draws Fire
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2...under-fire

[getrich]

Actually, the iceberg fellow raised a very good question for investor.
"How does Noble make money?"

After reading through their presentations and report, I am still as ignorant..

Nope, the business is extremely simple; it's the financial statements that are unnecessarily complex.

[specuvestor]

In my mind is what's wrong with this commodity industry. Are they practicing something that we cannot accept ? Why do people keep attacking them. And for earlier cases white knights have to come to the rescue. If the companies are fundamentally strong why do they need it. So are there elements of over speculations and leverages ...

- China MZ, Olam and now Noble ...

See my post below:

^^^ Biz model of Nobel doesn't seem as robust as Olam. The former seems to be more opportunistic than biz as usual

But both share a common trait: their biz are primarily working capital driven. That means they are highly dependent on credit for their biz. That means credibility and trust is paramount.

Any doubt has potential of igniting a run. Thats the danger of a leverage business, including banks. The short sellers understand this more than they understand the business.

havne't read the second report, but if you read the first report by iceberg. you realise (almost) everything that they said are accurate/backed up by facts.

how noble sue them lol. and of course anonymous how to sue.

The impairment implied by Iceberg was $600m. They wrote down only $200m. So is it half full or half empty?

[greengiraffe]

Commodity trading is a risky business notwithstanding whatever risks management plan in place.

In hindsight, commodity traders are fallen darlings and should never have been accorded their status. However, given that analysts need to keep their job and keep looking for ideas to generate commission for their securities houses, local commodity traders just went along with the global trend during the yesteryears where investors went gaga over commodity traders.

Remember Nick Leeson and other rogue traders.

To me, commodity traders are simply too complex a business and with inability to forecast with a high degree of certainty, why should commodity traders be accorded high PER ratings? Is constant negative cashflows with rising volumes and the lack of dividends inspite of strong accounting earnings not a concern?

Odd Lots Vested
GG

[getrich]

In my mind is what's wrong with this commodity industry. Are they practicing something that we cannot accept ? Why do people keep attacking them. And for earlier cases white knights have to come to the rescue. If the companies are fundamentally strong why do they need it. So are there elements of over speculations and leverages ...

- China MZ, Olam and now Noble ...

See my post below:

^^^ Biz model of Nobel doesn't seem as robust as Olam. The former seems to be more opportunistic than biz as usual

But both share a common trait: their biz are primarily working capital driven. That means they are highly dependent on credit for their biz. That means credibility and trust is paramount.

Any doubt has potential of igniting a run. Thats the danger of a leverage business, including banks. The short sellers understand this more than they understand the business.

havne't read the second report, but if you read the first report by iceberg. you realise (almost) everything that they said are accurate/backed up by facts.

how noble sue them lol. and of course anonymous how to sue.

The impairment implied by Iceberg was $600m. They wrote down only $200m. So is it half full or half empty?

On a side note, FT Alphaville has heard speculation previously, that Noble’s finance division was known to offer interest-based incentives to counterparties and internal traders who cash-settle positions before the end of the month instead on the first of the month as is the norm

[corydorus]

In my mind is what's wrong with this commodity industry. Are they practicing something that we cannot accept ? Why do people keep attacking them. And for earlier cases white knights have to come to the rescue. If the companies are fundamentally strong why do they need it. So are there elements of over speculations and leverages ...

- China MZ, Olam and now Noble ...

See my post below:

^^^ Biz model of Nobel doesn't seem as robust as Olam. The former seems to be more opportunistic than biz as usual

But both share a common trait: their biz are primarily working capital driven. That means they are highly dependent on credit for their biz. That means credibility and trust is paramount.

Any doubt has potential of igniting a run. Thats the danger of a leverage business, including banks. The short sellers understand this more than they understand the business.

havne't read the second report, but if you read the first report by iceberg. you realise (almost) everything that they said are accurate/backed up by facts.

how noble sue them lol. and of course anonymous how to sue.

The impairment implied by Iceberg was $600m. They wrote down only $200m. So is it half full or half empty?

I think the problem appears to be noble did do a write down after. No profit warning was given prior as far as i understand. Management Ethic is one of top value investment criteria therefore i hope Noble can provide more information related to this.

[new-comer1]

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/MIS%20IC...eID=337110

From Moody's

[corydorus]

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/MIS%20IC...eID=337110

From Moody's

i think the more they try, the more some people will feel fishy.

[new-comer1]

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/MIS%20IC...eID=337110

From Moody's

i think the more they try, the more some people will feel fishy.

Wait for another round of whistle-blowing then, if it ever happens

[corydorus]

I don't see any sane investor would do this. Is already in the spot light. Whistle Blower comes like once in a blue moon ...