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(11-02-2014, 08:57 AM)cfa Wrote: (11-02-2014, 08:19 AM)HitandRun Wrote: (10-02-2014, 08:54 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: HitandRun San,
I do have my share of questions...
Should we blame Warren Buffett for his "poor" performance in year 1999? It is definitely not a small problem for a fund manager. Or should Warren Buffett be penalized by shareholders, with his BYD and short-lived Intel investment, by ignoring his other successes?
CityFarmer San
On WB, BRK.A was between 59k and 80.9k in 1998. As of closing last night of 169k, the annualised return for the past 15.5 years is between 5% to 7%. The result is not bad but not good either.
Your take is that KBW's lack of foresight is a <5% problem. My take is that it is a 50% problem. Unfortunately, I also have first hand experience on what the tight capacity means for my loved ones, and my pocket. We shall have to agree to disagree here.
A fund manager only deal with fund and not the sicks or the lives of the people, How to compare ? Yes to some guys, wealth is always worth more than life , if this is the mentality then nothing to discuss further.
I agree that when u are dealing with lives there can be no straightforward benchmarks like in Financial industry.
But i agree with the observation that KBW has not a very good foresight.
The reason we are having all these problems in healthcare is because of his predecessors & GCT's insistence on making everything as a corporate structure. So just Like SMRT & SBS, our hospitals are focussing more on money making ventures like health screenings( yes comprehensive health screenings are useless, Basic health screenings are more than sufficient on population basis) & foreign patients, increasing the number of private pts, etc etc. the problems were there for many years seen by everyone. i would say he was smart enough to exit before it became too bad to save his backside from being kicked too hard.
I am afraid i dont have high hopes from him in the property market. Although he has inherited the problems he will exit before the situation gets out of hand.
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(11-02-2014, 08:19 AM)HitandRun Wrote: (10-02-2014, 08:54 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: HitandRun San,
I do have my share of questions...
Should we blame Warren Buffett for his "poor" performance in year 1999? It is definitely not a small problem for a fund manager. Or should Warren Buffett be penalized by shareholders, with his BYD and short-lived Intel investment, by ignoring his other successes?
CityFarmer San
On WB, BRK.A was between 59k and 80.9k in 1998. As of closing last night of 169k, the annualised return for the past 15.5 years is between 5% to 7%. The result is not bad but not good either.
Your take is that KBW's lack of foresight is a <5% problem. My take is that it is a 50% problem. Unfortunately, I also have first hand experience on what the tight capacity means for my loved ones, and my pocket. We shall have to agree to disagree here.
As long as similar methodology used on both cases, I respect your choice. Yes, we shall agree to our disagreement.
Thanks for the productive debate.
“夏则资皮，冬则资纱，旱则资船，水则资车” - 范蠡
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i don't really understand why some Singaporeans keep on thinking Pinky Loong & Gang has lack of foresight for planning Infrastructures for Singaporeans, i don't think so. It's just not in their top priority. Don't forget there are just too many scholars in Pinky Loong's team
Do they have lack of foresight for planning Airport, Sea Port, Taxi transport too?
i understand the 4th & 5th Airport terminals are already in the plan.
Have you got the picture ($$$$$$$.....)?
WB:-
1) Rule # 1, do not lose money.
2) Rule # 2, refer to # 1.
3) Not until you can manage your emotions, you can manage your money.
Truism of Investments.
A) Buying a security is buying RISK not Return
B) You can control RISK (to a certain level, hopefully only.) But definitely not the outcome of the Return.
NB:-
My signature is meant for psychoing myself. No offence to anyone. i am trying not to lose money unnecessary anymore.
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(11-02-2014, 08:57 AM)cfa Wrote: (11-02-2014, 08:19 AM)HitandRun Wrote: (10-02-2014, 08:54 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: HitandRun San,
I do have my share of questions...
Should we blame Warren Buffett for his "poor" performance in year 1999? It is definitely not a small problem for a fund manager. Or should Warren Buffett be penalized by shareholders, with his BYD and short-lived Intel investment, by ignoring his other successes?
CityFarmer San
On WB, BRK.A was between 59k and 80.9k in 1998. As of closing last night of 169k, the annualised return for the past 15.5 years is between 5% to 7%. The result is not bad but not good either.
Your take is that KBW's lack of foresight is a <5% problem. My take is that it is a 50% problem. Unfortunately, I also have first hand experience on what the tight capacity means for my loved ones, and my pocket. We shall have to agree to disagree here.
A fund manager only deal with fund and not the sicks or the lives of the people, How to compare ? Yes to some guys, wealth is always worth more than life , if this is the mentality then nothing to discuss further.
It seem the issue is personalized, which make further discussion meaningless.
The reference of WB as an illustration of my point, is because we are in value investing forum. I might use Doraemon when doing the same with a pre-school kid. I hope I wouldn't be tagged as childish in the latter case.
“夏则资皮，冬则资纱，旱则资船，水则资车” - 范蠡
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I think all our Ministers deal with Lives if we think deeper, not just people lying on the hospital beds but also life be it in cultural, defense, education etc.
If some one up there tells me. I can let you live 10 years more but you need to surrender all your wealth. To me is I rather go. To another person maybe is worth the exchange. In reality, options are not available to all.
To put into perspective, there needs to strike a balance. There will be ones who falls between the cracks and those who got lifted. There aren't perfect solution. In the end i agreed is the overall that counts at their level.
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The view of a property agent...
Cooling measures worth tweaking
A common topic of discussion during home visits over the Chinese New Year holidays was whether the Government should relax some of its property cooling measures — to date, seven rounds of them.
Some are in favour of such a move, but more feel the Government should not budge an inch. No surprise over who is on which side: The views are based heavily on self-interest.
...
I feel a review leading to some adjustments to the cooling measures would be good, simply because no policy is perfect.
There will always be some unintended negative consequences on the genuine homebuyer or upgrader: The policymaker may say this is unavoidable as you cannot please everyone. True, the impact may be small or even insignificant if we are talking about only a single round of measures but, to date, there have been seven rounds since September 2009.
Surely the consequences for each round will accumulate and build up and, over time, will become significant. Judging from the slow progress made by policymakers in the major economies to normalise the low-interest-rate environment, we can expect our cooling measures to be around for some time, if not for a long time. Meanwhile, a segment of households will continue to be unfairly penalised.
If that is the case, a review of the cooling measures should be done and adjustments made to limit such effects. Just this week, the Monetary Authority of Singapore relaxed some of the conditions of the Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) framework for owner-occupied properties. It recognised that some owners might find themselves trapped in situations not of their doing as a result of the TDSR,which is not officially considered a cooling measure.
...
Colin Tan is Director, Research & Consultancy at Suntec Real Estate
http://www.todayonline.com/business/prop...epage=true
“夏则资皮，冬则资纱，旱则资船，水则资车” - 范蠡
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Reading the last three paragraphs of the article, I can sense a strong frustration and desperation in the author. I am not convinced of what he has said.
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14-02-2014, 09:41 AM
Well, you might already felt the effect of 10 Feb (MAS exemption for TDSR)....
Definitely a plus... smiling on their face
Our value buddies will be refinancing their mortgage...
both owner-occupied and their investment properties...
 Love Compassion
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i don't think he is wrong in saying that TDSR is not a cooling measure per se- I doubt this will be removed anytime soon as it is a tool to manage leverage amongst households and collateral quality in banks instead.
the fact is: singapore has a very good reason to have higher property prices vis-a-vis its neighboring countries due to its higher income per population per square feet of land. but how high is too high? if it is higher than this "equilibrium" level due to cheap money/easy loan policy then there is a case to keep a lid on prices.
anecdotally there is definitely pressure even at certain segments of the property market. a cousin of mine (upgrading from hdb 4-rm and he made quite a bit on that so that seems fairly robust for now) is negotiating for 1 of 2 possibilities in the river valley region and the owners are willing to sell at 1100-1200 psf type levels already.
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1. It shows the ministers citizens' transport issues and well-being are not a priority on their mind. If they can plan and build airport and seaport well ahead of time, fund it with ease, can they plan and build local roads and rail well ahead of time?
2. How many of the ministers take trains / buses to work or experience crowded buses daily?
Our leadership is world class fire fighters more than world class leaders. World class leaders plan and execute by seeing opportunities and take steps to avoid problems from snowballing.
> i don't really understand why some Singaporeans keep on thinking Pinky Loong & Gang has lack of foresight for planning Infrastructures
> for Singaporeans, i don't think so. It's just not in their top priority. Don't forget there are just too many scholars in Pinky Loong's team
> Do they have lack of foresight for planning Airport, Sea Port, Taxi transport too?
> i understand the 4th & 5th Airport terminals are already in the plan.
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