19-11-2013, 10:47 AM
(18-11-2013, 03:48 PM)CityFarmer Wrote:(18-11-2013, 03:14 PM)sgd Wrote: now myanmmar opening up the whole world is whoring after her treasures everybody short on memory that just a few years ago how brutal the junta was. many burmese will not forget in a hurry how iron hand their government, I forsee if opportunity ever arises they will grab the chance to leave - mistrust is too deep.
My own uncle born malaysian followed many who took the return ship to "motherland china" then lived thru the hardship of cultural revolution but since china opened up they grab opportunity to run my cousin back then first went to study overseas and work after that then job opportunity arose during dot com era went to US now he's a US citizen bring everybody over and now they don't want to leave except maybe go back for vacations.
The mistrust is real, and deep indeed.
It also highlighted the value of Aung San Suu Kyi to Myanmar, both to its people, the military junta, and investors as well.
All liberalisation go through roughly 3 stages IMHO: The wild west, the growth and the mature.
Wild West is when they start crafting rules and things are murky. Not for the faint hearted. Growth is when certain principles and structure are well established and environment becomes condusive. Mature is of course when everyone knows what is happening.
This happens to all those opening up, from New World in the past to China to Myanmar. It also applies to emerging small cap stocks. Question is how long it takes for each stage and whether it actually able to progress to next stage. Vietnam is good recent case in point.
IMHO growth stage is the best time on a risk/reward basis. I don't think Myanmar reach that yet so just follow the season one. SPA group is well entrenched and experienced IMHO
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