Indian rupee hits record low in biggest fall in 18 years

[sgd]

I think more downside later can buy some indian rupee

All the indian FT are making a killing just by working in overseas.

http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=USDIN...&region=US

[corydorus]

I guess this teaches us that there is REASON behind high fixed returns in a country. Nothing is FREE.

[specuvestor]

Actually financial engineering is free Sometimes it is also a matter of effort vs return... for some it may not even be worth bending down to pick up a free dollar... IMHO that's why private banking exists

[AlphaQuant]

after failing to succeed with capital controls, taxes on gold, a final attempt for trade settlements in INR? This ultimately leads to hyperinflation via money printing - no wonder the indians are buying gold like mad to protect their purchasing power....

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-03...e-collapse

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India is exploring possibilities of a rupee-based trade-payment mechanism with several countries, Foreign Minister Salman Khurshid said Tuesday, a move that may help stabilize the local currency and reduce the country's current-account deficit.

India already has a rupee-based payment mechanism with Iran, which was worked out by New Delhi and Tehran to skirt Western sanctions against Iran. Under that, Iranian oil would be purchased with Indian rupees, which Iran would use to buy Indian goods, which include food, drugs, consumer products and auto parts.

India imports more than three-fourths of the crude oil it requires and a depreciating rupee has increased its energy costs in the local currency, adding to the government's fuel subsidies.

"Our commerce [trade] minister is in touch with many countries. Let's see where it is possible," Mr. Khurshid told reporters here. "If it is possible, than it would be of help to us right now," he added.

...
Trade Minister Anand Sharma last month said his ministry was exploring a rupee-trade mechanism with Iraq, the country's second-largest supplier of crude, behind Saudi Arabia.

[CityFarmer]

India's growth never able to catch-up with China's, for good reason(s)...

India’s falling economic tide exposes chronic problems

MUMBAI — India had seemed tantalisingly close to embarking on the same dash for economic growth that has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty in China and East Asia.

But its economy now stands in disarray, with the prospect of worse to come in the next few months.

Mr Vinod Vanigota, a Mumbai wholesaler of imported computer hard drives, said sales dropped by a quarter in the last two weeks. The rupee, India’s currency, has been so volatile in recent days that he began revising his price lists every half-hour.

Business activity at Chip Com Traders, where he is Managing Director and co-owner, has slowed so sharply that trucking companies plead for business. “One of the companies called today and said, ‘Don’t you have a parcel of any sort for us to deliver today?’” Mr Vanigota said.

The economic decline has laid bare chronic problems, little remarked upon during the recent boom. An antiquated infrastructure, a sclerotic job market, exorbitant real estate costs and bloated state-owned enterprises never allowed manufacturing, especially for export, to grow strong.

The rupee has been down 20 per cent since May, a period in which the stock market followed suit and fell almost 8 per cent.

The real estate market is teetering after soaring to vertiginous heights over the last few years. Cranes on Mumbai’s skyline perch nearly immobilised as developers struggle for cash.

The things the emerging middle class coveted, Chevrolets, iPhones and foreign vacations, have all jumped in price in recent weeks. The increases threaten to worsen consumer price inflation — already among the highest in Asia at an annual rate of almost 10 per cent — and widen the country’s already large international trade deficit and government budget deficit.

India’s government is now bracing the country for a swift increase in the cost of diesel fuel and other imported necessities priced in dollars. Diesel is the lifeblood of the Indian economy, from the trucks that crawl along the country’s jammed, potholed roads to the backyard generators that struggle to compensate for the high-cost yet unreliable electricity grid.

The root of the problem is India’s failure to create a vibrant industrial base with the strength to export. As Western buyers scour Asia for alternatives to increasingly pricey Chinese factories, India and its enfeebled manufacturing sector are mostly ignored.

Mr Soeb Bandukwala, Managing Director of Ansons Electro Mechanical Works, a maker of water pumps and electric motors, wonders how a recovery can arrive, given India’s structural problems. He runs a business that has been in his family since 1967 and has grown to four factories. Yet he keeps each factory at fewer than 50 workers and has maintained some metal grinding machines and other equipment in use since the 1970s without replacement.

His worry is that, if he exceeds 50 workers or surpasses certain benchmarks for total investment, he will be subject to extensive labour laws.

Infrastructure is also a problem. Ansons is only about 56km from the port through which it exports machinery to Europe. Yet trucks require four to seven hours to reach the port because promised expressways have never been built.

Speeds barely faster than walking at least help protect pumps and motors from harm. “If the speed is greater, damage will take place because of the potholes,” said Mr Bandukwala, who is also a regional leader in the Confederation of Indian Industry.

Poor infrastructure has also driven up costs for industrial real estate in India, which are high compared with China’s. Just in the last five years, China has opened 9,330km of high-speed rail routes and 644,000km of highways of two or more lanes. That has allowed tens of thousands of factories to move to smaller towns in the interior with much lower land costs.

India has been unable to open up its interior the same way, building half as many kilometres of highways over the same period and no high-speed rail routes. At the same time, rent control and other land regulations make it difficult to tear down and replace even the most dilapidated buildings. So cities like Mumbai have ended up with dozens of square kilometres of mould-stained, low-rise buildings with spots of green fungus, interspersed by the occasional skyscrapers that were somehow built. Remote, outer fringes of factories and office buildings have sprouted on what was once farmland.

The acute shortage of real estate less than a day’s drive from ports has produced steep real estate prices and rents. Challenge Overseas, a trousers manufacturer, paid US$1.3 million (S$1.66 million) five years ago to buy the 20,000 sq ft top floor of a decrepit, four-storey factory building with blocked fire escapes on a muddy alley on the outskirts of Mumbai, and sold it for US$2.7 million last month. The floor underneath, the company’s 60-employee factory, sold for US$410,000 in 2003 and is now valued at US$1.2 million.

Roads and bridges to inland towns are not the only infrastructure problem. Shakti Industries, which thins and cuts aluminium wires for jewellery manufacturers, pays the equivalent of 15 to 18 cents per kilowatt-hour for electricity. In China, even after a round of price rises coming late this month to pay for more clean energy, factory owners will pay half as much.

Shakti has only seven employees. Yet it is regulated by more than a dozen government agencies, each of which sends a separate inspector each year before issuing licences for things as diverse as electricity use and water pollution. Many of the inspectors demand bribes, said Shakti Managing Director Vipul Kamani.

High real estate and electricity costs leave businesses with little money to pay workers and remain competitive in the global markets for garments and other manufactured goods.

One private sector industrial giant that bet heavily on an economic take-off in India is the Essar Group, based in Mumbai. In the last five years, it has invested nearly US$18 billion to build one of the world’s largest refineries and one of the world’s biggest steel mills in north-western India, while tripling capacity at its ports and quadrupling the output of its power plants.

But the company now plans to collect income from these projects instead of building more, and it is even selling three steel-related businesses to pay down debt. Mr Haseeb Drabu, a former government economic planner and bank chairman who is now Essar’s Chief Economic Adviser, said that at Essar and across India, “I don’t see any fresh wave of investment”.

THE NEW YORK TIMES

http://www.todayonline.com/chinaindia/in...c-problems

[CityFarmer]

There are opportunities amid panic and fear, for value hunters... Is SingTel one of them, with its increased stake in Bharti?...

Some investors see opportunity amid India’s gloom

MUMBAI — Newspaper headlines are spewing doom and gloom about India, with analysts topping one another with dire pronouncements on the country’s prospects. Yet, some foreign investors are not only ignoring the warnings but buying more shares.

It flies in the face of conventional wisdom to bet on a country with a currency tumbling to a record low — with the rupee having hit 68.85 versus the United States dollar — and a government clutching at straws to deal with the worst economic turmoil since its balance of payment crisis in 1991.

“The market is obviously currently gripped in a sense of panic and, as such, it is not paying a lot of attention to the underlying fundamentals,” said Mr Jan Dehn, Head of Research at Ashmore Group in London, which manages US$80 billion (S$102.3 billion) worldwide. “Where the market has gone and what actually exists on the ground in reality have parted ways with each other.”

Even if India’s growth were to slow below 5 per cent, that would still be a faster clip than some other one-time darlings of foreign investors, including South Africa and Brazil, which are both expected to grow at around 2 per cent. The Reserve Bank of India is also expected to return its focus to reviving growth, having put interest rate cuts on hold to defend the rupee.

Ms Teera Chanpongsang, Portfolio Manager at Fidelity Emerging Asia Fund, said: “I’m still confident GDP growth will come in around 5 per cent despite these hurdles. I continue to invest in positions that are long-term winners, such as pharmaceutical companies (and) IT outsourcing companies,” she said.

Meanwhile, signs are emerging that India’s current account deficit could narrow substantially in the current fiscal year from the record high of 4.8 per cent of gross domestic product. Exports surged in July, leaving the trade deficit at US$12.3 billion, below the monthly average of US$16 billion in 2012-13. The slumping rupee and signs of an improving global economy led by the US also bode well for shipments overseas.

At the same time, the rate of imports is expected to slow after a slew of measures from policymakers to curb demand for gold. Barclays estimates the current account deficit will fall to US$68 billion this fiscal year, lower than the average of US$83 billion over the last two years. REUTERS

http://www.todayonline.com/business/some...dias-gloom

[sgd]

as more and more investors are convinced higher interest rates down the road. Higher interest means dollar appreciation, we haven't even seen the real thing yet, this could prolly be a reaction from preemption as more are unwinding positions ahead of any possible real changes to the dollar.

me wondering is this the start of another currency crisis in the making which other currencies also going be hit next, all the weak ones possible target of hedge funds and shortsellers? - dong, rupiah, bhat again?

Also if the usd appreciates time to be looking at investing in us stocks or singapore listed companies who have earnings in usd.