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Just based on the current amount of inventories and accounts payables, there is good reason to believe FY2015 will see around 4 cents of earnings. Even at 25 cents, a PE of 6, is way undemanding. Then of course, to the purists, there is no discount to NAV at current prices, but the NAV should catch up within a year.
What is to say then, that the O&G will not see a sudden upturn, just like the sudden downturn? When the Penguin starts to sprint then in terms of EPS due to an O&G upturn, with any upwards revision to the PE that investors are willing to accord to it, the Penguin may become uncatchable at current prices.
It’s good to have money and the things that money can buy, but it’s good, too, to check up once in a while and make sure that you haven’t lost the things that money can’t buy. –George Lorimer
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(26-02-2015, 08:43 AM)psolhawk Wrote: Just based on the current amount of inventories and accounts payables, there is good reason to believe FY2015 will see around 4 cents of earnings. Even at 25 cents, a PE of 6, is way undemanding. Then of course, to the purists, there is no discount to NAV at current prices, but the NAV should catch up within a year.
What is to say then, that the O&G will not see a sudden upturn, just like the sudden downturn? When the Penguin starts to sprint then in terms of EPS due to an O&G upturn, with any upwards revision to the PE that investors are willing to accord to it, the Penguin may become uncatchable at current prices.
I am puzzled why Mr Market is simply not interested in a local company, which has no debt, high eps and good dividend company?
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My answer - market is frequently irrational! I'm holding on to my Penguin shares, collect my 1 cent dividend and wait to pick up a little more when market irrationality brings the price below 20 cents ex-dividend.
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My suspicion is that the low oil price will change if one of the major oil producing countries get hit by ISIS or related parties and supplies get curtailed. Then Penguin will really soar on new demands. Meanwhile servicing the non O&G demands should keep the bird floating comfortably! 
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(26-02-2015, 08:15 AM)new-comer1 Wrote: So I believe in the long-term, the company still has a good prospect ?
I usually answer "long term" prospect, by referring to business model. Will the existing business model sustainable in "long term" of 5-10 years? Barring any unforeseeable circumstances, it will, IMO.
The dual engines of boat-building, and chartering service, have served the company and its customers well in the last few years, and there is no reason to assume the model is unsustainable in near future, especially with a very prudent management.
The comprehensive product line-up has made the company the choice for its customers.
The diversification of biz, on both offshore and marine, will also smooth out the company revenue, amid the market volatility.
The most importantly, the price is cheap, and a good annual dividend to hold
(vested)
“夏则资皮，冬则资纱，旱则资船，水则资车” - 范蠡
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Why no one talks about the tax rate??? This will eat into earnings.
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(26-02-2015, 09:07 AM)xlandjy Wrote: (26-02-2015, 08:43 AM)psolhawk Wrote: Just based on the current amount of inventories and accounts payables, there is good reason to believe FY2015 will see around 4 cents of earnings. Even at 25 cents, a PE of 6, is way undemanding. Then of course, to the purists, there is no discount to NAV at current prices, but the NAV should catch up within a year.
What is to say then, that the O&G will not see a sudden upturn, just like the sudden downturn? When the Penguin starts to sprint then in terms of EPS due to an O&G upturn, with any upwards revision to the PE that investors are willing to accord to it, the Penguin may become uncatchable at current prices.
I am puzzled why Mr Market is simply not interested in a local company, which has no debt, high eps and good dividend company?
If we view the company share price from the last 1-3 years perspective, exclude the dividend, the share price has appreciated +38% (1 year), +156% (2 years) and +139% (3 years) respectively
Mr. Market has shown interest on this stock, but remains skeptical. As long as earning continue to grow, shareholders will be rewarded handsomely, even the skeptical remains.
(vested)
“夏则资皮，冬则资纱，旱则资船，水则资车” - 范蠡
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After the preliminary review with the end-year report, here are the views
Has the company biz adversely affected by the low oil price?
I will access it by its margins, both on boat-building and chartering service segments. The chartering service earned a profit of 8 mil on 27.4 mil of revenue in FY2014, and an improvement over the previous year. The boat-building also having improvement in margin @ 19.0% in FY2014, vs the previous 18.7%.
The revenue growth seems tampered in 4th Q, but base on the inventories number, the growth disruption may be just a momentary, and it will resume in next Q in FY2015, IMO
Base on guesstimate by geographical performance, major impact seems on "Rest of SEA", which may means M'sia's offshore biz. Surprisingly, the Africa biz was booming, which was guessed as mainly offshore biz. Singapore biz was booming, which was guessed as marine based.
In conclusion, I would say, the company biz remains resilience amid the low oil price in FY2014 
What is the prospect in FY2015?
The boat-building revenue was mainly supported by external order in FY2014, base on the ratio of external vs internal biz. The average ratio was around 30%, but in FY2014, the ratio was only 14%. The company boat-building biz will continue to do good, with more room to grow by internal orders.
The internal fleet wasn't sitting idling, but clocking chartering revenue. The other source of revenue is the regular disposal of the boats, with decent profit, due to its accelerated depreciation. It means the book value of the vessels are always under-valued.
In short, I remain optimistic on the outlook of the company. The growth story was just started in 2013, and it may be too early to saturate in 2015, IMO.
(vested, and may be biased)
“夏则资皮，冬则资纱，旱则资船，水则资车” - 范蠡
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I don't really has high hope for Penguin but was lured by CY09's super bullish target price of 40ish cents and large allocation of his portfolio. What I dislike about Penguin are:
i) inconsistent (or rather stingy) in paying dividends in the past
ii) built-to-stock practice
iii) hardly predictable shipping (or some say Q&G) related business
Having said this, I still joint CY09, Temasek, Dimensional and etc to board this boat, hoping for better ride and most importantly recognition/recommendation by the analysts.
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(26-02-2015, 08:43 AM)psolhawk Wrote: Just based on the current amount of inventories and accounts payables, there is good reason to believe FY2015 will see around 4 cents of earnings. Even at 25 cents, a PE of 6, is way undemanding. Then of course, to the purists, there is no discount to NAV at current prices, but the NAV should catch up within a year.
What is to say then, that the O&G will not see a sudden upturn, just like the sudden downturn? When the Penguin starts to sprint then in terms of EPS due to an O&G upturn, with any upwards revision to the PE that investors are willing to accord to it, the Penguin may become uncatchable at current prices.
Looking at the inventory numbers and the amount spent on inventory in the 4Q tells me they have a large order to fulfil in the next 6 months. This is good considering oil price has been sliding and yet they still receive orders. That tells their customers are not affected by the sliding oil price.
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