The Next Big Crash - Are You Prepared?

[ForeverAlone]

today is the 16th, tomorrow 17th liao
still no deal... what are they doing man, I getting nervous
maybe should sell out first in case 17th market crash?

[NTL]

Will they default? I don't think so. Their reputation at stake. And if their bond rating drop too low, no one will buy their bonds next time. It will also affect the bond ratings issue by the companies within too.

The consequence is unimaginable.

I don't feel any fear yet. (Maybe coz I read too little?)

[CityFarmer]

More update on the issue...

Fitch warns it may cut US credit rating

NEW YORK — Fitch Ratings warned yesterday (Oct 15) it could cut the sovereign credit rating of the United States from AAA, citing the political brinkmanship over raising the federal debt ceiling.

“Although Fitch continues to believe that the debt ceiling will be raised soon, the political brinkmanship and reduced financing flexibility could increase the risk of a US default,” the firm said in a statement.

The firm put its opinion about the creditworthiness of US government debt on what its calls Ratings Watch Negative, a reflection of the increasing risk of a near-term default if the debt limit is not raised in time. It gave itself until the end of the first quarter of next year to decide whether it will actually cut the rating.

Still, Fitch reaffirmed its belief that an agreement to raise the debt ceiling will be reached, allowing the US government to pay its bills by borrowing beyond the US$16.7 trillion (S$21 trillion) limit currently in place.
...
http://www.todayonline.com/business/fitc...dit-rating

[BlueKelah]

today is the 16th, tomorrow 17th liao
still no deal... what are they doing man, I getting nervous
maybe should sell out first in case 17th market crash?

Well if you do value investing like most of us here, a market crash just == buying opportunity. now market is just sideways very hard to make any substantial profits.

I have 50% in cash waiting to go into the market , some other forummers here also have 20-30% cash in their portfolio waiting for a crash.

If you are getting nervous you should probably participate more on this forum and learn how to value companies

[NTL]

How about prolong recession?

Anyone able to suggest what to be done?

[BlueKelah]

in prolonged recession lets say ~10 years just collect whatever dividends you have and reinvest them at the low stock prices, preferably in those companies which are still consistently producing positive cash flows. because once the recession ends the market will revert to mean again, which means upwards.

remember buying stocks should be an investment, short term trading has never produced as much reward as long term holdings.

[Clement]

A lot depends on whether the company survives the recession doesn't it. Preparation for a worst case scenario will depend on many factors like current holdings, personal liquidity needs and so on. There is no one size fits all solution that can be applied to everyone.

[Bibi]

Even if a company has no problem surviving a recession, it also depends whether the company will get delisted at low prices. Then keep averaging down will suffer the most.

[NTL]

Will index investing be the way?

Am just thinking if I am unable to determine which company will last a prolong recession, which company will be delisted at low price, then investing in an index will help to mitigate some of these risks.

[Clement]

Will index investing be the way?

Am just thinking if I am unable to determine which company will last a prolong recession, which company will be delisted at low price, then investing in an index will help to mitigate some of these risks.

If you are unsure and currently sitting on cash, wouldn't it make more sense to stay on the sidelines till the fog has lifted and the picture becomes clearer? There is little near term upside risks and therefore little opportunity costs to waiting.