The Next Big Crash - Are You Prepared?

[opmi]

Paulson's last tango? Don't quite understand why he would increase risk now

(Bloomberg) --
After most of his clients have fled, billionaire John Paulson has embarked on a strategy to raise assets and generate big fees at the risk of losing his own capital.

Paulson & Co. signed up last year with the three main providers of so-called first-loss funds to pursue the wagers, according to a March regulatory filing. These deals with Topwater Capital, Prelude Capital Management and Boothbay Fund Management allow Paulson to lever-up his own capital many times over after he squandered much of it on wrong-way bets.

Well, I respect your opinion, but not sure the ground of the opinion?

Base on his track records stated in wikipedia, I found no clue on "salesman masquarading as fund manager"?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Mobius

Based on the published figures/ papers many S-chips looks very cheap also with no hint of "snakeoil" as well

I have observed and respect many managers from Bill Miller to Kyle Bass and of course Buffett, but Mobius record is not top of the list. I wish you the best if you buy their emerging markets funds. 路遥知马力 which is similarly why I have higher regards for Paul Tudor than Paulson.

Thanks for the detail of your observation. I might not agree, but will definitely take note of it.

Paulson as a one hit wonder...

By Kelly Bit
     Dec. 8 (Bloomberg) -- John Paulson’s lousy 2014 is getting
worse.
     The billionaire’s firm posted a 27 percent year-to-date
loss in its event-driven fund after a 3.1 percent decline in
November, according to two people familiar with the matter. The
Paulson Recovery Fund has declined 14 percent this year and a
version of the event-driven strategy that can buy new share
issues such as Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. has fallen 17 percent.
     Paulson & Co. oversees about $19 billion in hedge funds
that can bet on credit markets, mergers and corporate events.
The firm has lost money in recent months on Fannie Mae and
Freddie Mac securities and a failed health care company merger.
Energy investments such as Whiting Petroleum Corp. and Oasis
Petroleum Corp. that Paulson held as of Sept. 30 have also
tumbled in recent weeks as oil prices slumped.
     Armel Leslie, a spokesman for New York-based Paulson & Co.
with Peppercomm, declined to comment on the returns.
     Paulson, 58, has experienced big wins and losses in the
past few years because of concentrated bets on mergers, gold,
the European debt crisis and mortgages. After starting his fund
to profit on corporate mergers in 1994, he made $15 billion in
2007 by wagering against the U.S. housing market.

                        Mixed Fortunes

    The billionaire has had mixed fortunes since, with assets
at the firm rising to a peak of $38 billion in 2011. That year
the event fund declined 36 percent because of his bullishness on
the economy that drove wrong-way bets in favor of U.S. financial
companies. The following year he lost a fortune on gold and
speculating against Europe before a comeback in 2013 driven by
company mergers and investing in stocks.

......................

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-08...-loss.html

Paulson need to see the movie "American Gangster". See quote below.
I also need to practice what I preach.

[soros]

The HK Money Times supplement issue dated 23 April 2018 showed some PE ratios for different markets :

US ( DJI at 24,462) PE = 21.3
UK ( FTSE at 7368) PE = 13
Germany (DAX at 12540) PE = 13.6
France (CAC at 5412) PE = 15.5

Hong Kong ( Hang Seng at 30418) PE = 12.5
Singapore ( STI at 3573 ) PE = 11.9

So by comparing the PE ratios , we can see that US Market price levels are high enough to exit whilst Hong Kong & Singapore Markets price levels are still OK for the value buyers.

[Dosser]

US 10 Treasury yield just went up above 3%, about 20 minutes ago. Looks like a stronger move than the brief venture above 3% yesterday. A couple of months ago, some analysts were taking about 3%  being significant for equity markets. However, having, after a long pause, finally got there, are markets going to shrug it off as something that they have been expecting?

One place that the gradually rising US rates have had an obvious impact is Hong Kong, where the Monetary Authority has been buying a lot of HK$ to defend the US$ peg. The higher interest rates available on US$ than on HK$ has been causing quite a carry trade, and putting downward pressure on the HK$. It will be interesting to see if interest rates moving up towards US rates starts to cool the red hot property market.

[kelvesy]

In just 4 - 5 months, this current economic cycle would be the longest in last 30 - 40 years.