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Just wanted to highlight this weird phenomenon cause maybe STI stocks generally gives high dividend
from 30 Dec 2016 to 17 Dec 2024 STI up 32.0% but total return it's actually up 83.4%
(06-10-2024, 09:09 PM)Wildreamz Wrote: (06-10-2024, 08:58 PM)Shrivathsa Wrote: ..
The summary is long term real earnings growth falls behind long term GDP growth in many countries.
Intuitively, that seems true. Another example would be Singapore GDP vs STI. Since 2007 we have more than doubled our GDP, but STI has yet to exceed it's 2007 highs.
Rigorously, identifying a trend like increasing GDP is important, but still inadequate in formulating a complete investment thesis.
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward
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(17-12-2024, 04:37 PM)specuvestor Wrote: Just wanted to highlight this weird phenomenon cause maybe STI stocks generally gives high dividend
from 30 Dec 2016 to 17 Dec 2024 STI up 32.0% but total return it's actually up 83.4%
(06-10-2024, 09:09 PM)Wildreamz Wrote: (06-10-2024, 08:58 PM)Shrivathsa Wrote: ..
The summary is long term real earnings growth falls behind long term GDP growth in many countries.
Intuitively, that seems true. Another example would be Singapore GDP vs STI. Since 2007 we have more than doubled our GDP, but STI has yet to exceed it's 2007 highs.
Rigorously, identifying a trend like increasing GDP is important, but still inadequate in formulating a complete investment thesis.
December 2016 happens to be a cyclical low (where most investors were still in the red for about a decade) and December 2024 happens to be a cyclical high. To assess strength of long term correlation between GDP and stock market performance (as per original context of the statement). Would it make more sense to look at longer term correlations (e.g., 10, 20, 30 years)?
“If you buy a business just because it’s undervalued, then you have to worry about selling it when it reaches its intrinsic value. That’s hard. But if you can buy a few great companies, then you can sit on your ass. That’s a good thing.” - Charlie Munger
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Incidentally my thoughts on GDP vs stock market is here:
https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-5133...#pid172436
(17-12-2024, 09:11 PM)Wildreamz Wrote: (17-12-2024, 04:37 PM)specuvestor Wrote: Just wanted to highlight this weird phenomenon cause maybe STI stocks generally gives high dividend
from 30 Dec 2016 to 17 Dec 2024 STI up 32.0% but total return it's actually up 83.4%
(06-10-2024, 09:09 PM)Wildreamz Wrote: (06-10-2024, 08:58 PM)Shrivathsa Wrote: ..
The summary is long term real earnings growth falls behind long term GDP growth in many countries.
Intuitively, that seems true. Another example would be Singapore GDP vs STI. Since 2007 we have more than doubled our GDP, but STI has yet to exceed it's 2007 highs.
Rigorously, identifying a trend like increasing GDP is important, but still inadequate in formulating a complete investment thesis.
December 2016 happens to be a cyclical low (where most investors were still in the red for about a decade) and December 2024 happens to be a cyclical high. To assess strength of long term correlation between GDP and stock market performance (as per original context of the statement). Would it make more sense to look at longer term correlations (e.g., 10, 20, 30 years)?
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward
Think Asset-Business-Structure (ABS)
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