Warren Buffett's Letter to Uncle Sam

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#1
Quite an interesting read.
Though QE drew alot of critics, at least we averted the 2nd Great Depression of the 21st Century.

And Singapore benefited alot, I dare say, from the QE by the Americans.
Perhaps many of us may not even be typing here leisurely if the Great Depression really happened.



Dear Uncle Sam,

My mother told me to send thank-you notes promptly. I've been remiss.

Let me remind you why I'm writing. Just over two years ago, in September 2008, our country faced an economic meltdown. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the pillars that supported our mortgage system, had been forced into conservatorship. Several of our largest commercial banks were teetering. One of Wall Street's giant investment banks had gone bankrupt, and the remaining three were poised to follow. A.I.G., the world's most famous insurer, was at death's door.


Many of our largest industrial companies, dependent on commercial paper financing that had disappeared, were weeks away from exhausting their cash resources. Indeed, all of corporate America's dominoes were lined up, ready to topple at lightning speed. My own company, Berkshire Hathaway , might have been the last to fall, but that distinction provided little solace.

Nor was it just business that was in peril: 300 million Americans were in the domino line as well. Just days before, the jobs, income, 401(k)'s and money-market funds of these citizens had seemed secure. Then, virtually overnight, everything began to turn into pumpkins and mice. There was no hiding place. A destructive economic force unlike any seen for generations had been unleashed.

Only one counterforce was available, and that was you, Uncle Sam. Yes, you are often clumsy, even inept. But when businesses and people worldwide race to get liquid, you are the only party with the resources to take the other side of the transaction. And when our citizens are losing trust by the hour in institutions they once revered, only you can restore calm.

When the crisis struck, I felt you would understand the role you had to play. But you've never been known for speed, and in a meltdown minutes matter. I worried whether the barrage of shattering surprises would disorient you. You would have to improvise solutions on the run, stretch legal boundaries and avoid slowdowns, like Congressional hearings and studies. You would also need to get turf-conscious departments to work together in mounting your counterattack. The challenge was huge, and many people thought you were not up to it.

Well, Uncle Sam, you delivered. People will second-guess your specific decisions; you can always count on that. But just as there is a fog of war, there is a fog of panic , and, overall, your actions were remarkably effective.

I don't know precisely how you orchestrated these. But I did have a pretty good seat as events unfolded, and I would like to commend a few of your troops. In the darkest of days, Ben Bernanke, Hank Paulson, Tim Geithner and Sheila Bair grasped the gravity of the situation and acted with courage and dispatch. And though I never voted for George W. Bush, I give him great credit for leading, even as Congress postured and squabbled.


You have been criticized, Uncle Sam, for some of the earlier decisions that got us in this mess , most prominently, for not battling the rot building up in the housing market. But then few of your critics saw matters clearly either. In truth, almost all of the country became possessed by the idea that home prices could never fall significantly.

That was a mass delusion, reinforced by rapidly rising prices that discredited the few skeptics who warned of trouble. Delusions, whether about tulips or Internet stocks, produce bubbles. And when bubbles pop, they can generate waves of trouble that hit shores far from their origin. This bubble was a doozy and its pop was felt around the world.

So, again, Uncle Sam, thanks to you and your aides. Often you are wasteful, and sometimes you are bullying. On occasion, you are downright maddening. But in this extraordinary emergency, you came through , and the world would look far different now if you had not.

Your grateful nephew,

Warren

- Warren E. Buffett is the chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, a diversified holding company.

This story originally appeared in the The New York Times
URL: http://www.cnbc.com/id/40229527/


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#2
Warren Buffett has always been an ardent supporter of the Fed and their policies, and he is making it crystal clear in this commentary. While I do not disagree that the actions of the Fed helped to avert another Great Depression back in 2009, I do question the need for QE2 which will result (probably) in runaway inflation and a depressed currency for USA.

Not that there is a very clear "right" or "wrong" in this case, but the USA has a huge mountain of debt which will take several generations to clear, so I feel they should focus on reducing the debt burden instead of adding to the pile.

Just my 2-cents.
My Value Investing Blog: http://sgmusicwhiz.blogspot.com/
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#3
Actually I'm not very sure that not adding to the debt pile will help. After all, Japan has done that for years and they still have had anemic growth. This is what Richard Koo, Chief Economist of Nomura has been saying for years- that slow growth in Japan is due to private enterprises paying down debt. Basically it is due to a debt overhang and loose monetary policy is a necessary but not sufficient condition for them to exit from that situation. (For those interested, Koo has a book titled 'Holy Grail of Macroeconomics. Can be borrowed from NLB but not an easy read, can get technical at parts.)

While of course, there are differences between the US and Japan (e.g. Japan's high domestic savings rate to begin with), I think Bernake, being the Depression scholar he is, also recognizes that the Fed has no other option but to do the QE and keep at it for as long as required. Btw, Krugman's take on Japan is that both expansionary fiscal and monetary policy is necessary to get them out of the funk. Koo's argument of course is that, it takes time for the debt to be paid off. More time than any politician would have of course.

Leaving macroeconomics behind, I think that it's just not politically feasible for the Fed to not do anything. Obama and friends need something to show if he wants a second term and the Fed, as much as they are supposed to be independent, need to play their part in the show.
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