Government determined to increase population to 7 mil in 2030.

[zhangwuji]

Raising fertility is not a problem. Some European countries have successfully done it before. I don't think our multi-million dollar salaried ministers are not capable of solving the problem. The problem is that the PAP gov is only interested in raising their vote count. Do you think they really care about fertility rate?

[sgd]

I am sure if you give away 4 room HDB to every couples that have 3 kids and more, the TFR will start going up like crazy.

I like this idea and it does not impose much burdens on the nation.
Cost of a HDB flat = cost of construction + land cost.
Cost of construction is around $200 psf and a 4rm flat costs $200*1000psf = $200k per flat.
Since land cost is just virtual money and highly dependent on the population and if Singaporeans do not procreate, the virtual money is as good as zero.
$200k for three kids. value for money.

And literally remove the biggest cost item in young families.
The flat will also give a better living space for those who residing in smaller units or sharing with parents.

I think there was a claim by opp a decade back that they could build a unit in potong pasir for under 100k. Of course if you think about it no developer that still want to do business with HDB will dare to ever take it up.

So to add actually it's a good idea since we are assuming it cost so little to build a HDB flat and there was a suggestion in the papers or was it somewhere else anyway I read they could build a new category of HDB flats non-resalable type has no market value ie you cannot sell on open market except back to government. Of course you will never get it free they will make sure you pay a subsidized rate so if you have three kids or more and as a reward you can apply for a no-market value house.

The cost of construction for a HDB estate can be found in various listed SGX construction companies' announcement.

Example
http://www.chipengseng.com.sg/administra...0N2C23.pdf

The contract is worth $210 millions.
The total no. of dwelling is 1232 units and assuming an average area of 1000 sqf per unit. The cost of construction psf is around $170.
If we add in other miscellaneous cost(maybe $30 psf), each 1000sqf HDB unit will probably cost around $200,000.

Assuming 5000 families opt for it yearly, the yearly construction cost is around $1 billion.
but 5000 families x 3 kids = 15000 kids.
If it hit 10000 families, the cost will go to $2 billion.
For a larger flat, the family will have to top up themselves.

With this scheme, the gov can remove the tax incentives for child birth. The tax incentives for child birth sounds a lot but it only benefits the high income earners. For low income earners, most of them are not even paying tax or little tax. The tax incentives are as good as never give.

Of course, if we count the virtual money in, then it is a lot more but what is virtual money if there are no future singaporeans??

The problem is, if the couple, after getting married and getting their free flat, is not able to meet their target of 3 kids by X year, then how? Ask them to pay for the flat or pro-rate the flat cost based on number of kids? If they finally end up with the targeted 3 kids by X + Y years, then HDB pay back eh?

You must already have 3 kids or have 2 and planning another or already on the way then only you can apply. This scheme is probably making assumptions that a family (both parents are singaporeans) with kids wants to downgrade.

They sell their place on the open market making whatever profit is up to them then they downgrade and buy a no value flat for a fixed price set by the government. The money they made pocketing the difference of selling their orignal flat and buying the new one can be used to support the family.

[yeokiwi]

The problem is, if the couple, after getting married and getting their free flat, is not able to meet their target of 3 kids by X year, then how? Ask them to pay for the flat or pro-rate the flat cost based on number of kids? If they finally end up with the targeted 3 kids by X + Y years, then HDB pay back eh?

Simple.. The couple will pay upfront(S$200k) with CPF. For each kid, the government will transfer $66k to their CPF special accounts.
Besides boosting the TFR, it also builds up their retirement account.

Want cash?? show me the three kids now.

[natnavi]

I am sure if you give away 4 room HDB to every couples that have 3 kids and more, the TFR will start going up like crazy.

I like this idea and it does not impose much burdens on the nation.
Cost of a HDB flat = cost of construction + land cost.
Cost of construction is around $200 psf and a 4rm flat costs $200*1000psf = $200k per flat.
Since land cost is just virtual money and highly dependent on the population and if Singaporeans do not procreate, the virtual money is as good as zero.
$200k for three kids. value for money.

And literally remove the biggest cost item in young families.
The flat will also give a better living space for those who residing in smaller units or sharing with parents.

I think there was a claim by opp a decade back that they could build a unit in potong pasir for under 100k. Of course if you think about it no developer that still want to do business with HDB will dare to ever take it up.

So to add actually it's a good idea since we are assuming it cost so little to build a HDB flat and there was a suggestion in the papers or was it somewhere else anyway I read they could build a new category of HDB flats non-resalable type has no market value ie you cannot sell on open market except back to government. Of course you will never get it free they will make sure you pay a subsidized rate so if you have three kids or more and as a reward you can apply for a no-market value house.

The cost of construction for a HDB estate can be found in various listed SGX construction companies' announcement.

Example
http://www.chipengseng.com.sg/administra...0N2C23.pdf

The contract is worth $210 millions.
The total no. of dwelling is 1232 units and assuming an average area of 1000 sqf per unit. The cost of construction psf is around $170.
If we add in other miscellaneous cost(maybe $30 psf), each 1000sqf HDB unit will probably cost around $200,000.

Assuming 5000 families opt for it yearly, the yearly construction cost is around $1 billion.
but 5000 families x 3 kids = 15000 kids.
If it hit 10000 families, the cost will go to $2 billion.
For a larger flat, the family will have to top up themselves.

With this scheme, the gov can remove the tax incentives for child birth. The tax incentives for child birth sounds a lot but it only benefits the high income earners. For low income earners, most of them are not even paying tax or little tax. The tax incentives are as good as never give.

Of course, if we count the virtual money in, then it is a lot more but what is virtual money if there are no future singaporeans??

The problem is, if the couple, after getting married and getting their free flat, is not able to meet their target of 3 kids by X year, then how? Ask them to pay for the flat or pro-rate the flat cost based on number of kids? If they finally end up with the targeted 3 kids by X + Y years, then HDB pay back eh?

Sorry, I do not quite get you. Maybe the government can give it to them the flat after they have their 3rd kid.

There are always ways to work around this issue.

The main issue I wanted to highlight is that the government is not doing enough to raise the TFR.

One of the best measure to see if they government is serious about raising the TFR, is to see where the government is willing to put their money at.

As in investing in any company, if the company is serious about R&D, the company will devote (maybe) 50% of their profit into R&D, as compared to a company who is only willing to devote 5% of their profit back into R&D. If a pharmaceutical company tells the whole world that they are interested in finding the latest medicine to cure the world's most harmful diseases but only put in 5% of their profits in R&D, while paying their management 80% of their profits. Would you believe in that company's claims?

[specuvestor]

The free HDB suggestion is similar to the COE suggestion I had. Free COE for everyone who has 3 kids. It does not cost taxpayers real money and if they liquidate the COE they can't claim they couldn't get a car as COE was too expensive. Subsidising child care through the markets.

Housing however is more complicated because it is immovable properties, and it is a necessity. You cant just liquidate the house and sleep in the streets. Nonetheless policy can also be channeled through larger discount to new HDB flats. It is more difficult to channel through HDB grant scheme as it will inflate the HDB secondary market again. In fact the grant should have been terminated after HDB had excess supply last decade, which defeats the grant's purpose.

Ah .. 210 mil is the tender awarded by HDB, this amount includes percentage of profit for developer. But how much did it cost HDB to buy the land from URA before giving it to developers? Did they do a mark up?

And how much did URA got the state land for if they got it in the 50's and 60's era

Of course if we start getting into that again they will again say that is tantamount to raiding the national reserves

I think URA owns the land as sovereign. There is no book value per se. However the AG makes sure the price URA sells to even HDB is at market price. Herein lies the reason why HDB supposedly "loss making" because it subsidises the land. It is actually right pocket to left pocket for govt, but the accounting treatment is such that land sales are not part of Singapore budget but goes to reserves IIRC.

Raising fertility is not a problem. Some European countries have successfully done it before. I don't think our multi-million dollar salaried ministers are not capable of solving the problem. The problem is that the PAP gov is only interested in raising their vote count. Do you think they really care about fertility rate?

Can you please quote some examples of European countries increasing TFR without immigration? Some TFR increased I think is because the immigrants were more "productive". This has created massive social problems from UK to France to Denmark.

If you got an elegant solution, I think a lot of developed countries would like to do it.

[piggo]

Think and discuss so much for what when your opinions doesn't matter? All suggestions that deviate from the official policy worthless

[koh_52]

White paper bill passed 77 against 13...
7 wp + 1 spp + ?nmp
Heard bengali singh talk so much in the end vote 'YES'

[arthur]

Indeed! End of day, Inderjit Singh still voted yes despite all the impressive speech he made!
No dissident within PAP ranks when the Party Whip is held on.

This is simply bulldozing through at all costs.

[Caelitus]

Has anyone completed reading the entire White Paper?

[koh_52]

Indeed! End of day, Inderjit Singh still voted yes despite all the impressive speech he made!
No dissident within PAP ranks when the Party Whip is held on.

This is simply bulldozing through at all costs.

They just rammed it down our throat . They know the ground is not so sweet and by doing this it is the only way they can get back their own support base becos all the new FT citizen will bite for them out of gratitude and fear....

They still dun believe that when FT had the choice to leave they will leave papies stranded. No such thing as loyalty and attachment. Their roots will call them back.

Come 2016 vote them out and show them we are their master.

Congrat, those who has multiple properties...huat arh.