Singapore Post

[Temperament]

In my personal experience, I've come to realise that buying at bottom and selling at top is what I call "cocktail talk". Interesting chit chat topic to impress but usually serves little purpose to overall portfolio or net worth. Usually I would just smile when I hear these kind of cocktail talk but if we want to be mean, the next question would be: "So how much % does it add to your net worth?"

Classic example is Oei made $7m in AIG shares buying near bottom and trumpeted the donation, whilst lost $1b in FX. $7m is huge in absolute amount but small to his net worth.

I always believe it's the big Fishes (Sharks) that moves the market to either extreme. And the small fishes are herded as sacrificial morsels. That's my strong conviction for years. Correction! Since day 1. of my investment.

Let us be Remora then!

Ha! Ha!
i just learn a new word.
You are right. We have to learn from Remoras in order to swim with the sharks. How clever of you to to let me know your plan.
On the other hand i may be one of the Remora who has amnesia due to too many "market-extreme psychology traumas."
Sorry for those who like to see quantitative analysis of stock only. (You read at your own risk. Don't complain please.)
We like to talk-cock (bits & pieces) about the psychology of investing and understanding the market general behaviour.
We can always analyse a stock later (at our own risk) if we want to buy it.
Arikato!

How about doing it this way:

- Know (guess) where the sharks are going
- Stuck to the sharks as they come along
- Let the sharks bring you to where you want to go
- Meanwhile feed on the remains of the sharks' food
- When reach destination, let go
- Wait for the next shark to come

Hmmm... wait a minute, is that investing or speculating?

I think that is called knowing our place and being smart... EVEN when INVESTING.

Your well described picture is indeed very wise and often it takes years to realise it

i am glad someone of your "status" (i respect your postings not because of it's content but the "wisdom" in it and your willingness to share) agrees that being a "Remora" can work. If you are willing to take investing as your lifetime "hobby", then it's not a problem. In fact, to me if you can take out the time factor in your investing or (anything), you can always choose when; when to buy or sell. Meanwhile your cash now may be "rotting" in the bank or somewhere. But you will always have a standby capital ready to pounce on anything.

[NTL]

i am glad someone of your "status" (i respect your postings not because of it's content but the "wisdom" in it and your willingness to share) agrees that being a "Remora" can work. If you are willing to take investing as your lifetime "hobby", then it's not a problem. In fact, to me if you can take out the time factor in your investing or (anything), you can always choose when; when to buy or sell. Meanwhile your cash now may be "rotting" in the bank or somewhere. But you will always have a standby capital ready to pounce on anything.

Hi Uncle Temperament,

Since you mentioned "Standby Capital", how much should one set aside? For me at moment, it close to a third of what I had invested. Is this too much?

[Temperament]

i am glad someone of your "status" (i respect your postings not because of it's content but the "wisdom" in it and your willingness to share) agrees that being a "Remora" can work. If you are willing to take investing as your lifetime "hobby", then it's not a problem. In fact, to me if you can take out the time factor in your investing or (anything), you can always choose when; when to buy or sell. Meanwhile your cash now may be "rotting" in the bank or somewhere. But you will always have a standby capital ready to pounce on anything.

Hi Uncle Temperament,

Since you mentioned "Standby Capital", how much should one set aside? For me at moment, it close to a third of what I had invested. Is this too much?

In investing in the stock market, i think no one should tell someone exactly what to do. We can only share the principles, the psychology, our experience of investment. Why?
It's simply no one knows what the market going to do next. And how the company you invested is going to perform. Example: (i am only speaking for myself) i held back about 50% of my capital in 2008/2009 (which i would never do when i started 25 years ago. i went in all. And i made a lot of money at that time. i think partly because of i were new to the market, i knew less of the risks involved then)
But i think, basically you must always have some % of investing capital (the amount depends on your own investment aim or style and you are happy or comfortable with it) waiting to pounce on anything that comes along during a Bear market.

[NTL]

i am glad someone of your "status" (i respect your postings not because of it's content but the "wisdom" in it and your willingness to share) agrees that being a "Remora" can work. If you are willing to take investing as your lifetime "hobby", then it's not a problem. In fact, to me if you can take out the time factor in your investing or (anything), you can always choose when; when to buy or sell. Meanwhile your cash now may be "rotting" in the bank or somewhere. But you will always have a standby capital ready to pounce on anything.

Hi Uncle Temperament,

Since you mentioned "Standby Capital", how much should one set aside? For me at moment, it close to a third of what I had invested. Is this too much?

In investing in the stock market, i think no one should tell someone exactly what to do. We can only share the principles, the psychology, our experience of investment. Why?
It's simply no one knows what the market going to do next. And how the company you invested is going to perform. Example: (i am only speaking for myself) i held back about 50% of my capital in 2008/2009 (which i would never do when i started 25 years ago. i went in all. And i made a lot of money at that time. i think partly because of i were new to the market, i knew less of the risks involved then)
But i think, basically you must always have some % of investing capital (the amount depends on your own investment aim or style and you are happy or comfortable with it) waiting to pounce on anything that comes along during a Bear market.

Noted with Thanks!

[Temperament]

[/quote]

Classic example is Oei made $7m in AIG shares buying near bottom and trumpeted the donation, whilst lost $1b in FX.

This is also what we call "High RISK" investing but not necessary "High Reward". And Low Risk investing in the long run is not necessary Low Reward" Another words, "HIGH RISK, HIGH REWARD & LOW RISK LOW REWARD is not always true.

[kelvesy]

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/sing...87062.html

I see this as positive news. The expertise of the older employees will be passed on the newer generation of employees. But will it affect their salaries expense?

[Greenrookie]

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/sing...87062.html

I see this as positive news. The expertise of the older employees will be passed on the newer generation of employees. But will it affect their salaries expense?

It will affect their salary. The civil service will take about 35% cut in pay when they are rehired after 65, given singpost close relationship with stat board, I do not think the figure is too far

While I fully appreciate the scheme to rehire, a few questions always bothered me. First, the need to reduce pay is mainly because Singapore companies mostly have a system of pay according to seniority than performance, this is especially true is the public sector, as even if u are mediocre, your pay will likely goes up as u age, and u might be earning a higher pay while doing the same job as the young. Hence the need to reduce pay to make business sense.

Hence 35% seems like a reasonable cut. But, there are sectors which experience really counts. Eg. Teaching... Of course, to say the older teachers are defintely better than the young is a over simplified statement, but we can safely says the older teachers teach differently and will affects his or her charge in a different manner. But can we say the same for singpost? Does long years of experience make a difference in handling mails or macheries that are constantly changing? Maybe in terms of management, exp counts. That's one of the reason why I am trying to invest properly and get out of the rat race I possible. Because while I am a be beneficiary of the seniority then performance based system, I believe it has no place in modern market system. And as I aged, I believe they will move towards pure performance system, doesn't matter how many years u work, fulfilled KPi, u get your bonuses and pay raises. So I will take advantage of the current system and earn as much as possible. When the bomb comes, hopefully I ready to be FInacially semi Independent

[Temperament]

Absolutely, its TINA times. One just got to understand who is behind the buying now - its real money, no the small men on the streets...

Hence, the need to hunt for stocks with the margin of safety in the event of an unexpected turn - at least can tide over wrong term...

GG

Beside TINA, I think the Greater Fool theory is also in play. Just last week I sold all my holding at $1.31 to the next fool, so I thought, but looking at the price now, I realized I am the greater fool

Ha! Ha!
All of us will react like that until one incident after you sell, the market tanks. Then you will react the other way. "Heng Ah, thank my lucky star."
Sooner or later you will come to accept or understand as long as you make money when you decide to sell, you should thank your lucky star too. Why? Don't you think you have the possibility & capability to make money again? Even may be from the same stock. IMO.
Joel Greenblatt says something like that too. (i may spell his name wrongly).
Cheers!

[Dividend Warrior]

Haha, when my mum I. Law ask me for safe stocks with good dividends, I told her to buy singpost at 1.08. I told her if it falls further, dun panic, u can still feed off the dividends and if price is low enough accumulate further. When the price reach 1.2, she ask me can sell? I say no point, buy for dividends, take your time. When it reach 1.3, she ask again. I says dun speculate la, wait for quarter report. When I saw the report, I didn't bother to look at the price as I though the price would surely fall. But to my amazement, it went north instead!! So I told my mum in law u can sell now. The risk reward profile has tilt to unfavorable ... But I told her, when u sell it might still shoot up, and I borrowed d.o.g words, when I sell, it will go up, as I can't sell at the top. Truth enough, it went to 1.4 from 1.36. But the best part is, I was suddenly treated to bird neat yesterday dinner!! She thanks me for helping her make money from the stock market.

I bought some Singpost shares for my mother at $1.25 a few months back......

[felixleong]

next year mother's day I'm gonna buy some singpost for my mom too ^^