YHI International

[Squirrel]

the selling seems very strong these last few days at .405 to .415.  given the high possibility that dividends would be increased by at least a little, the potential dividend yield has probably crossed 4%.

I am actually expecting 5% dividends thereabouts. They have historically declared a percentage of NPAT as dividends all along and for the past few years seems to be trending towards 50%. This is inclusive of exceptional items. The 1H NPAT is already 8.375m, to hit $4m in 2H is probable imho and that would drive a 50% payout above 5% dividend at $0.41.

[bargainhunter]

the selling seems very strong these last few days at .405 to .415.  given the high possibility that dividends would be increased by at least a little, the potential dividend yield has probably crossed 4%.

I am actually expecting 5% dividends thereabouts. They have historically declared a percentage of NPAT as dividends all along and for the past few years seems to be trending towards 50%. This is inclusive of exceptional items. The 1H NPAT is already 8.375m, to hit $4m in 2H is probable imho and that would drive a 50% payout above 5% dividend at $0.41.

oh, just realised that they only need another $3.32m in H2 to hit 4c eps and 2c dividend translating to at least 4.8% yield at $0.415.

[Squirrel]

CIMB started covering the name without rating. Just a matter of time before they slap a TP on it?

https://research.sginvestors.io/2018/09/...09-17.html

[bargainhunter]

CIMB started covering the name without rating. Just a matter of time before they slap a TP on it?

https://research.sginvestors.io/2018/09/...09-17.html

I just saw your post and referred to the charts.

amazingly there was totally no reaction and no volume until yesterday when people actually sold at $0.395 lol.  that's how much interest there is for > 50% of the stocks on sgx.

the report seems brief and dared not even hint at potentially lower p/e and higher dividends.

[weijian]

CIMB started covering the name without rating. Just a matter of time before they slap a TP on it?

https://research.sginvestors.io/2018/09/...09-17.html

I just saw your post and referred to the charts.

amazingly there was totally no reaction and no volume until yesterday when people actually sold at $0.395 lol.  that's how much interest there is for > 50% of the stocks on sgx.

the report seems brief and dared not even hint at potentially lower p/e and higher dividends.

Most value investors themselves treat analyst reports with a pinch of salt, but yet expect others to react to them. It's pretty ironic sometimes.
Probably the key to our attitude towards analyst reports, is the amount of alignment it has towards our own reaction to the stock or its valuation.

[bargainhunter]

CIMB started covering the name without rating. Just a matter of time before they slap a TP on it?

https://research.sginvestors.io/2018/09/...09-17.html

I just saw your post and referred to the charts.

amazingly there was totally no reaction and no volume until yesterday when people actually sold at $0.395 lol.  that's how much interest there is for > 50% of the stocks on sgx.

the report seems brief and dared not even hint at potentially lower p/e and higher dividends.

Most value investors themselves treat analyst reports with a pinch of salt, but yet expect others to react to them. It's pretty ironic sometimes.
Probably the key to our attitude towards analyst reports, is the amount of alignment it has towards our own reaction to the stock or its valuation.

Could you contribute more constructive comments with regards to YHI?  What you wrote has nothing to do with this stock.  I remembered you mentioned before not to write posts which are irrelevant to the stock.  Perhaps you might want to start a new thread:  Attitude/Alignment/Reaction to analyst reports.

[Squirrel]

Latest quarterly results released. Company continues to be a reliable cash generating machine despite headwinds in the market. On track towards 5% dividend for the full year. Stable performance with no surprises is a blessing in this environment.

[bargainhunter]

https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/YHI-FY201...eID=545551

56.8% increase in net profit to 4.7c EPS and giving out 2.35c Dividend

[Squirrel]

https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/YHI-FY201...eID=545551

56.8% increase in net profit to 4.7c EPS and giving out 2.35c Dividend

True to historical trend, they paid out 50% of earnings. At current prices, that’s 5.7% yield.

[bargainhunter]

Hi Mushy and Squirrel

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/YHI-FY20...eID=505580

Q1 boosted by one off gain.

1)  will this profit be considered for dividend?
2)  is it a concern that the operational profit seems lower than expected?

1) I don't see why it will be excluded. Dividend has always been considered as a percentage of the profit attributable to shareholders.

2) I guess this should be a concern to all investors, but how much of it depends on the investment thesis. It will be a great concern for growth investors but for a value investor, maybe not so much. 

My reasons for buying this company is due to the deep discount to value that the company presents, the current trough that the industry is undergoing and the track record that the company and its management have presented in the past 10+ years (not a year of losses, that's pretty remarkable). From my point of view, I am investing into a company that is facing multiple headwinds over the pass few years. Intense overcapacity in China, EU wide tariffs on tyres, recent aluminium volatility due to RUSAL sanction etc. The company's response has been great so far, rightsizing their production, reducing the receivables through their 3R initiatives, renting out unused property, selling non strategic property in Australia.

I am currently holding onto a company that's trading at $0.455, worth $0.87 on books and $0.94 if you take into account the fair value markup in the Shanghai property. Even if we take the current $2m to be the norm over the next 3 quarters, we still get $11m of PAT for this year and a 4.2% dividend yield at current prices at 50% distribution. All this while waiting for the tide to turn and the company generating over $20m of operating cashflow every year.

I believe this is a waiting period for the worst to pass. Mushy has indicated as well that China is working on the overcapacity issue. As long as the company stays profitable, the discount will just get more and more attractive. Once the headwinds are gone, there will be then a very short period of time for the discount to vanish, and I would want to stay fully vested when that happens, all while being handed 3-4% dividends year on year.

Thanks for your reply!   earlier you had been expecting $14m or more.  Do u still expect that to be achievable or do you think it may be closer to $11m?

bro Squirrel is very accurate.  came in clsoer to $14m than the base case of $11m.