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(22-03-2020, 12:04 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: (21-03-2020, 06:55 PM)LionFlyer Wrote: That's a 2015 article..how is this relevant?
The situation now may be much worse for SIA...
Compare SIA hedging price and current oil price. 80 versus 20.
A lot of oil Analysts are saying 20 dollars level will be breached soon....just need to Google and find out.
personally, I think SIA may be teetering on the brink of bankruptcy by June 2020... in a few more months time..
Yes. My understand is they and the majority of the carriers have forward contracts between 60 ~ 80. It is a serious concern.
You can count on the greed of man for the next recession to happen.
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My own personal view is that there is a High degree of uncertainty as to whether SIA should be assessed as an ongoing concern .
Hence , the current share price of $5 plus as of today may not make any sense at all.
Of course , if Government or Temasek decides to bail it out , then it is different story.
The cov19 cases in USA have yet to peak . Even after peaking , many airports around the world will still remain closed for fear of “imported infection”.
Then , this may drag on for at least the next 3 to 4 months or even until year end ( as the government had alluded to recently ).
Many airlines around the world should have become bankrupt by then . This will trigger a shock wave to the supporting industries and the wider economy.
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(22-03-2020, 05:54 PM)Behappyalways Wrote: SIA projected losses could total S$1.26 billion in fiscal year 2021
https://mothership.sg/2020/03/singapore-...es-losses/
I think the above loss is greatly under estimated
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23-03-2020, 04:55 PM
(This post was last modified: 23-03-2020, 04:55 PM by CY09.)
(23-03-2020, 04:08 PM)LionFlyer Wrote: (22-03-2020, 12:04 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: (21-03-2020, 06:55 PM)LionFlyer Wrote: That's a 2015 article..how is this relevant?
The situation now may be much worse for SIA...
Compare SIA hedging price and current oil price. 80 versus 20.
A lot of oil Analysts are saying 20 dollars level will be breached soon....just need to Google and find out.
personally, I think SIA may be teetering on the brink of bankruptcy by June 2020... in a few more months time..
Yes. My understand is they and the majority of the carriers have forward contracts between 60 ~ 80. It is a serious concern.
Not all airlines hedge their future use. And for those who hedge, they do not hedge as much as SIA.
This is why SIA is struggling. It hedged a significant portion of its 2020 expected usage at high price; however air travel demand fell and it is likely they will be stuck with this inventory to use for the rest of the year
Source: https://research.sginvestors.io/2020/03/...03-19.html
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SIA is a strategic asset for Singapore as a transport hub which is linked to myriad of auxillary services from airport to catering
It is not just about PnL. It's like asking Macau to let their casinos fail.
That said it doesn't mean equity holders will be safe. All depends on the restructuring (if any) exercise. That's the uncertainty premium now
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward
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perhaps SIA may sell some of its own aircraft to BOC aviation and lease back to increase cash flow
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23-03-2020, 05:30 PM
(This post was last modified: 23-03-2020, 05:31 PM by brattzz.)
Gut feel is that SIA will have to do a rights issues at $3? and temasek will mop up all the rights.
It's too big to fail sir! :O :O :O
DBS did a rights issue in 2008/09 too at $8.++! "from a position of strength" statement i remember! 
1) Try NOT to LOSE money!
2) Do NOT SELL in BEAR, BUY-BUY-BUY! invest in managements/companies that does the same!
3) CASH in hand is KING in BEAR!
4) In BULL, SELL-SELL-SELL!
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(23-03-2020, 05:02 PM)specuvestor Wrote: SIA is a strategic asset for Singapore as a transport hub which is linked to myriad of auxillary services from airport to catering
It is not just about PnL. It's like asking Macau to let their casinos fail.
That said it doesn't mean equity holders will be safe. All depends on the restructuring (if any) exercise. That's the uncertainty premium now Rather I would think changi Airport is a strategic asset, sia is merely a transport services provider with heavy capex
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23-03-2020, 06:19 PM
(This post was last modified: 23-03-2020, 06:20 PM by pianist.)
(23-03-2020, 05:24 PM)port Wrote: perhaps SIA may sell some of its own aircraft to BOC aviation and lease back to increase cash flow
Other airlines would think likewise, fire lelong sale in such scenario
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(23-03-2020, 06:17 PM)pianist Wrote: (23-03-2020, 05:02 PM)specuvestor Wrote: SIA is a strategic asset for Singapore as a transport hub which is linked to myriad of auxillary services from airport to catering
It is not just about PnL. It's like asking Macau to let their casinos fail.
That said it doesn't mean equity holders will be safe. All depends on the restructuring (if any) exercise. That's the uncertainty premium now Rather I would think changi Airport is a strategic asset, sia is merely a transport services provider with heavy capex
唇亡齿寒； Chicken and egg. I doubt Changi Airport can be so successful without SIA. If it's just about having an airport we have a sizable competitor up north, but they lack a credible airline.
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward
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