Super Group

[felixleong]

Ya lor, dunno if forming bubble or not, if burst liao can take another look hehe

[CityFarmer]

Haiz...no bad news for this company, only good news...

Super Group posts 24% rise in Q1 net profit to $23mil

Super Group, the integrated instant food and beverage (F&B) brand owner, today announced a 24% increase in net profit to $22.9 million for the first three months ended 31 March 2013 (1Q13).

Revenue increased 9% to $132.4 million from $121.6 million. Gross profit margin improved 3 percentage points to 37% due to effective costs management and enhanced operational efficiencies arising from increased production capacity.

http://www.theedgesingapore.com/the-dail...23mil.html

[snowcap]

Damn, keep rising

Sold some at $4.10, then sold the rest at $4.52 hoping it will "normalise" but the counter cheong up to $4.60+

Must... resist... chasing...

My Investor psychology being tested.

[felixleong]

I like their OWL instant coffee
cheap and good
I drink it every morning, haha

[Temperament]

Damn, keep rising

Sold some at $4.10, then sold the rest at $4.52 hoping it will "normalise" but the counter cheong up to $4.60+

Must... resist... chasing...

My Investor psychology being tested.

For me i will be patient. In general, i will let it go until it comes back to me again, if ever. i don't usually chase after "HOT STOCK". if i miss making money this round i know there is always another. May be the same stock or a different one. The problem is whether i am alert to catch it? i missed FNN. It's one of my favourite that has made me money for a few cycles.
Cheers!

[CityFarmer]

Analyst reports...

OSK/DMG, TP $4.88, rating NEUTRAL
Scoop of the Day: 1Q13 recurring profit of SGD18.8m (+16% y-o-y, -9% q-o-q) was below our SGD23.1m projection, dampened by Myanmar concerns and rising costs. While overall revenue rose 9% y-o-y to SGD133m, SUPER’S branded product sales ticked up by only 1% y-o-y to SGD94m (our estimate: SGD104m) due to: 1) a ~10% decline in Myanmar as local distributors opted to stay light on inventory on riot concerns, and 2) a ~5% dip in Malaysia as the competition heated up. Ingredient sales were higher-than-expected at SGD38m, or +33% y-o-y (our estimate: SGD31m). Operating expenses rose to 19.1% of revenue (1Q12: 17.5%), driven by higher promotion expenses arising from its recent rebranding exercise and rising staff costs. we leave our FY13-FY14 estimates largely intact and lift our terminal growth assumption from 3% to 4.5% on promising growth from ingredient sales, as well as double-digit gains in China and Philippines in 1Q13. Given its strong cash generation and net SGD94m cash, our scenario analysis for a 20:80 debt-equity capital structure suggests that the stock’s FV may find support at ~SGD6.00. Maintain NEUTRAL and raising TP to SGD4.88 (Tan Han Meng)

http://remisiers.org/cms_images/research...tters_.pdf

MayBank Kim Eng, TP $6.30, rating BUY
 1Q13 results were within expectations. Recurring net profit growth
of 30% yoy were driven by higher revenue and better margins.
 While we expect margins to moderate over the next few quarters,
we still expect strength due to 1) higher-value products coming on
stream and economies of scale.
 With resilient earnings and a free cash flow which will grow
exponentially from next year, we think it is now appropriate to
value the stock on a DCF basis, which yields a fresh TP of
SGD6.30, implying 30% upside from here.

http://remisiers.org/cms_images/research...052013.pdf

[Musicwhiz]

Kim Eng pegging an implied 30x PER on forward earnings for 2013? Where is the margin of safety in that?

[felixleong]

wahhh 30 times earnings... le siao bo, si bei aggressive leh
machaim no margin of safety

[CityFarmer]

Kim Eng pegging an implied 30x PER on forward earnings for 2013? Where is the margin of safety in that?

The analyst's valuation model is DCF (3-stage?). Base on the report, the "culprit" is the 5 years FCF estimations.

The estimated FCF's average growth is approx 40% annually, from $38.3 mil in FY13 to $113.5 mil in FY17.

Wow... 40% consistently for 5 years, the analyst is very...very confident on the company cash generating capability...

(not vested)

[greengiraffe]

Sign of TINA times:

Just scan through latest analyst report on Super Gp - 3-in-1 mix manufacturer. Share price $4.85 (target >$5) has done superbly well and now trades around 30x PER. With several mega delistings of F&B counters such as Cerebos, Hsu Fu Chi, APB and nearly F&N, fun managers are left with limited choices in the F&B space and hence the xiao performance.

Kim Eng pegging an implied 30x PER on forward earnings for 2013? Where is the margin of safety in that?

The analyst's valuation model is DCF (3-stage?). Base on the report, the "culprit" is the 5 years FCF estimations.

The estimated FCF's average growth is approx 40% annually, from $38.3 mil in FY13 to $113.5 mil in FY17.

Wow... 40% consistently for 5 years, the analyst is very...very confident on the company cash generating capability...

(not vested)