Posts: 1,348
Threads: 42
Joined: Mar 2011
Reputation:
87
Prices of soft and hard commodities are going up, and it looks like prices could remain elevated if the global recovery is maintained. We will probably be seeing a return of the 2007 commodities super cycle if the virus is eliminated right now.
Nevertheless, soft commodities are still going strong. Local retail food prices may see some inflation by the end of the year or early next year.
Posts: 270
Threads: 9
Joined: May 2012
Reputation:
10
It seems to me that Wilmar has some resemblance to Amazon and Alibaba, in that it had over many years, built a sprawling network of inter-supporting businesses and assets, which would be difficult to replicate.
Even though Wilmar's network would not have the kind of powerful virtuous cycle effect that Amazon and Alibaba enjoy, nonetheless a large, well-oiled, vertically-integrated business, complemented with a trading operation, should be valuable.
While ROE is not exciting (just below 10%), there could be substantial value hiding within. How can or what would lead to this value manifesting -- that is something I have to study further.
What baffles me is Wilmar's current focus on building central kitchens in China - described as Wilmar's most important project. How big can the market for ready-to-eat / ready-to-cook meals be when hot food is easily available at lower prices? From what I see in SG, supermarkets and 7-11s are not selling huge volumes of RTE/RTC meals.
At PE of 12X, Wilmar looks attractive.