Wilmar International

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(10-09-2015, 01:16 PM)cfa Wrote: Is there any reason for the relentless selling ? Fundamentals seem unchanged .


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(10-09-2015, 01:16 PM)cfa Wrote: Is there any reason for the relentless selling ? Fundamentals seem unchanged .


Attached Files
.pdf   wilmar-db.pdf (Size: 474.49 KB / Downloads: 92)
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DB placed target price of $2?!?!
Luckily disposed at slight gains at the initial of the downfall. Heng Heng
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DB placed target price of $2?!?!
Luckily disposed at slight gains at the initial of the downfall. Heng Heng
Reply
(10-09-2015, 01:16 PM)cfa Wrote: Is there any reason for the relentless selling ? Fundamentals seem unchanged.

Wilmar = Commodity
Commodity selling = Wilmar selling

Fundamentals seem unchanged?? Could as easily be saying fundamentals are changing for the worse.
Virtual currencies are worth virtually nothing.
http://thebluefund.blogspot.com
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(10-09-2015, 01:16 PM)cfa Wrote: Is there any reason for the relentless selling ? Fundamentals seem unchanged.

Wilmar = Commodity
Commodity selling = Wilmar selling

Fundamentals seem unchanged?? Could as easily be saying fundamentals are changing for the worse.
Virtual currencies are worth virtually nothing.
http://thebluefund.blogspot.com
Reply
This is old, but I don't see it in this thread.

GMT Research suggests that Wilmar borrowed money to engage in USD/RMB carry trade.
https://gmtresearch.com/videos/video-qa-curious-assets/   (at 5:19)

They say:
 - USD 8bn restricted cash, largest amt they have seen for any company.  
 - This gets a 5% yield.  In a ZIRP environment.
 - US 24bn short term debt, at ~ 2.5%.

GMT was concerned they are vulnerable to widening interest rate differential.

If true, I'm wondering what effect a further RMB devaluation would have.
I wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up.
Jim Rogers
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This is old, but I don't see it in this thread.

GMT Research suggests that Wilmar borrowed money to engage in USD/RMB carry trade.
https://gmtresearch.com/videos/video-qa-curious-assets/   (at 5:19)

They say:
 - USD 8bn restricted cash, largest amt they have seen for any company.  
 - This gets a 5% yield.  In a ZIRP environment.
 - US 24bn short term debt, at ~ 2.5%.

GMT was concerned they are vulnerable to widening interest rate differential.

If true, I'm wondering what effect a further RMB devaluation would have.
I wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up.
Jim Rogers
Reply
http://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-5901-...#pid120250

this one oso not much of worries as eventually the Kuoks may privatise but when the day comes make sure you resist their overtures and consider going long...
Reply
http://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-5901-...#pid120250

this one oso not much of worries as eventually the Kuoks may privatise but when the day comes make sure you resist their overtures and consider going long...
Reply
Not vested

Similarly, Brazil subsidized the export of sugar, which is down 67 percent in price since February 2011, and no doubt will be forced to pour more money into the industry. Already, 80 of 300 sugar mills in the South Central region, where 90 percent of Brazilian sugar is produced, are closed. Stockpiles are at a 35-year high. Insolvent mills are trying to sell as much sugar as possible to generate cash, which has depressed world sugar prices.

Meanwhile, sugar imports in China were down 25 percent in August from a year earlier. Adding to the pressure, the Brazilian real is down 33 percent so far this year. Standard & Poor’s cut the country’s debt rating to junk in September. The dollar-denominated debts of Brazilian sugar producers are becoming next to impossible to service, as a result.



Caution: More Commodity Price Weakness Ahead
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/20...hit-bottom
You can find more of my postings in http://investideas.net/forum/
Reply
Not vested

Similarly, Brazil subsidized the export of sugar, which is down 67 percent in price since February 2011, and no doubt will be forced to pour more money into the industry. Already, 80 of 300 sugar mills in the South Central region, where 90 percent of Brazilian sugar is produced, are closed. Stockpiles are at a 35-year high. Insolvent mills are trying to sell as much sugar as possible to generate cash, which has depressed world sugar prices.

Meanwhile, sugar imports in China were down 25 percent in August from a year earlier. Adding to the pressure, the Brazilian real is down 33 percent so far this year. Standard & Poor’s cut the country’s debt rating to junk in September. The dollar-denominated debts of Brazilian sugar producers are becoming next to impossible to service, as a result.



Caution: More Commodity Price Weakness Ahead
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/20...hit-bottom
You can find more of my postings in http://investideas.net/forum/
Reply
We can relook to buy this commodity stock perhaps in 2016. When it chiongs, it may not look back.
Reply
We can relook to buy this commodity stock perhaps in 2016. When it chiongs, it may not look back.
Reply
If it chiongs at all, we could be facing a prolong commodity downcycle. If its anything like the past supercycle, wilmar could be in for a long wait to upside. Debt is also quite a lot the last time i looked at the financials

sent from my Galaxy Tab S
Virtual currencies are worth virtually nothing.
http://thebluefund.blogspot.com
Reply
If it chiongs at all, we could be facing a prolong commodity downcycle. If its anything like the past supercycle, wilmar could be in for a long wait to upside. Debt is also quite a lot the last time i looked at the financials

sent from my Galaxy Tab S
Virtual currencies are worth virtually nothing.
http://thebluefund.blogspot.com
Reply
The reason for the recent share price performance?

ADM boosts Wilmar stake as Asian palm oil demand rises

CHICAGO (Oct 21): Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. raised its stake in Wilmar International Ltd. ( Valuation: 2.60, Fundamental: 0.80), the Singapore-based company that trades almost half the world’s palm oil, as demand for the commodity used in bread to shampoo grows in Asia.

ADM, the world’s largest corn processor, “opportunistically acquired shares of Wilmar in the open market” recently, spokeswoman Jackie Anderson said in an e-mailed statement. Tuesday’s purchases represented about 22% of the total volume of Wilmar traded on the Singapore Exchange, according to Chicago-based ADM, which declined to disclose its current total stake and said it’s not a controlling stake. It held an 18% stake as of March 10, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
...
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...mand-rises
“夏则资皮,冬则资纱,旱则资船,水则资车” - 范蠡
Reply
The reason for the recent share price performance?

ADM boosts Wilmar stake as Asian palm oil demand rises

CHICAGO (Oct 21): Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. raised its stake in Wilmar International Ltd. ( Valuation: 2.60, Fundamental: 0.80), the Singapore-based company that trades almost half the world’s palm oil, as demand for the commodity used in bread to shampoo grows in Asia.

ADM, the world’s largest corn processor, “opportunistically acquired shares of Wilmar in the open market” recently, spokeswoman Jackie Anderson said in an e-mailed statement. Tuesday’s purchases represented about 22% of the total volume of Wilmar traded on the Singapore Exchange, according to Chicago-based ADM, which declined to disclose its current total stake and said it’s not a controlling stake. It held an 18% stake as of March 10, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
...
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...mand-rises
“夏则资皮,冬则资纱,旱则资船,水则资车” - 范蠡
Reply
Hedge funds tighten grip on sugar futures
  • CHRISTIAN BERTHELSEN, CAROLYN CUI
  • THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
  • NOVEMBER 11, 2015 12:00AM


[Image: 886831-0faec016-877a-11e5-8b46-8e342e83f9ff.jpg]
Sugar Source: TheAustralian


[b]Suddenly, investors are see opportunities in sugar again.[/b]
Raw-sugar futures prices are up 39 per cent since August, the market’s largest gain since 2011 and a rare increase amid a deepening commodity bust. Futures trading volumes set a record in September, and bullish bets by money managers this month hit a two-year high, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.
Investment firms Tudor Investment Corp and DE Shaw & Co are among hedge funds plying the sugar trade, after Wall Street largely gave this $US18 billion ($25bn) market up for dead during a year-long price decline.
The gains are being driven in part by improving market fundamentals.
This year is shaping up as the first in five in which annual production falls below worldwide use, helping to shrink a sugar glut that in August pushed prices to seven-year lows. Aiding the swing is an uptick in emerging market economic data that has helped drive modest recoveries in the currencies of major producers Brazil and India against the dollar.
But the price swings are also a testament to investors’ tendency at a time of easy money and low investment returns to crowd into markets deemed to provide an ­opportunity for profitable trading. Futures prices rose as much as 12 per cent above those in the physical market early last week, ­according to Platts — a sign of froth in the market that suggests futures prices are too high, some traders said.
“There has been a complete disconnect from the physical market,” said David Martin, managing member of hedge fund Martin Fund Management, an active trader in the market who thinks the rally has been overdone.
The moves have already caught the attention of Intercontinental Exchange, which increased margin requirements on sugar futures by 19.5 per cent on Thursday, to raise the cost of making leveraged bets with borrowed money. The gains are already beginning to reverse, with the market dropping 9.7 per cent from its recent peak on Wednesday. Sugar futures closed down 3.3 per cent yesterday at US13.99c a pound on ICE.
“We’re seeing a new array” of traders entering the sugar market, said Jeff Dobrydney, vice-president at Jenkins Sugar Group, a broker in Connecticut.
Sugar began to garner attention early this year, as declines in Brazil’s currency, the real, sent sugar prices down. Since Brazil accounts for more than 40 per cent of raw sugar for export, a decline in the real tends to prompt producers to boost output, pushing prices down.
Some macro hedge funds, which place trades based on macroeconomic trends, seized on the situation and began selling sugar as a cheaper way to bet against the real, which is expensive to borrow with Brazilian interest rates near 15 per cent.
The Brazilian currency has since recouped some losses, triggering massive short covering among traders, with some turning around to bet on gains.
At Briarwood Capital Management, a New York hedge fund, “sugar has been a moneymaker for us”, said Fred Schutzman, the firm’s chief executive.
Briarwood was short sugar earlier this year but turned to bet on higher sugar prices on September 22 when its trading models showed a buying signal. There are fundamental reasons to be ­bullish. The International Sugar Organisation forecast that the sugar market would have the first “statistical deficit” this year, with production falling short of demand by 3.5 million tonnes.
“We have seen the longest bear market in sugar for quite some time,” said Michael McDougall, director of commodities for Societe Generale in New York. “It’s like a large ship that takes a lot to turn. But it looks like it’s finally beginning to turn.”
Sugar mills in Brazil are directing more cane production to ethanol for fuel blending, thanks to government incentives that make prices more attractive.
After a weak domestic crop season, demand from China has been strong, jumping 55 per cent to 3.75 million tonnes in the first nine months of the year.
Singapore-based trading house Wilmar International has taken physical delivery of $US1bn worth of sugar through the financial market so far this year, fanning speculation about increased Asian appetite for the sweetener.
But in a sign that gives some investors pause, producers and processors are now placing bets that prices will fall.
Reply
Hedge funds tighten grip on sugar futures
  • CHRISTIAN BERTHELSEN, CAROLYN CUI
  • THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
  • NOVEMBER 11, 2015 12:00AM


[Image: 886831-0faec016-877a-11e5-8b46-8e342e83f9ff.jpg]
Sugar Source: TheAustralian


[b]Suddenly, investors are see opportunities in sugar again.[/b]
Raw-sugar futures prices are up 39 per cent since August, the market’s largest gain since 2011 and a rare increase amid a deepening commodity bust. Futures trading volumes set a record in September, and bullish bets by money managers this month hit a two-year high, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.
Investment firms Tudor Investment Corp and DE Shaw & Co are among hedge funds plying the sugar trade, after Wall Street largely gave this $US18 billion ($25bn) market up for dead during a year-long price decline.
The gains are being driven in part by improving market fundamentals.
This year is shaping up as the first in five in which annual production falls below worldwide use, helping to shrink a sugar glut that in August pushed prices to seven-year lows. Aiding the swing is an uptick in emerging market economic data that has helped drive modest recoveries in the currencies of major producers Brazil and India against the dollar.
But the price swings are also a testament to investors’ tendency at a time of easy money and low investment returns to crowd into markets deemed to provide an ­opportunity for profitable trading. Futures prices rose as much as 12 per cent above those in the physical market early last week, ­according to Platts — a sign of froth in the market that suggests futures prices are too high, some traders said.
“There has been a complete disconnect from the physical market,” said David Martin, managing member of hedge fund Martin Fund Management, an active trader in the market who thinks the rally has been overdone.
The moves have already caught the attention of Intercontinental Exchange, which increased margin requirements on sugar futures by 19.5 per cent on Thursday, to raise the cost of making leveraged bets with borrowed money. The gains are already beginning to reverse, with the market dropping 9.7 per cent from its recent peak on Wednesday. Sugar futures closed down 3.3 per cent yesterday at US13.99c a pound on ICE.
“We’re seeing a new array” of traders entering the sugar market, said Jeff Dobrydney, vice-president at Jenkins Sugar Group, a broker in Connecticut.
Sugar began to garner attention early this year, as declines in Brazil’s currency, the real, sent sugar prices down. Since Brazil accounts for more than 40 per cent of raw sugar for export, a decline in the real tends to prompt producers to boost output, pushing prices down.
Some macro hedge funds, which place trades based on macroeconomic trends, seized on the situation and began selling sugar as a cheaper way to bet against the real, which is expensive to borrow with Brazilian interest rates near 15 per cent.
The Brazilian currency has since recouped some losses, triggering massive short covering among traders, with some turning around to bet on gains.
At Briarwood Capital Management, a New York hedge fund, “sugar has been a moneymaker for us”, said Fred Schutzman, the firm’s chief executive.
Briarwood was short sugar earlier this year but turned to bet on higher sugar prices on September 22 when its trading models showed a buying signal. There are fundamental reasons to be ­bullish. The International Sugar Organisation forecast that the sugar market would have the first “statistical deficit” this year, with production falling short of demand by 3.5 million tonnes.
“We have seen the longest bear market in sugar for quite some time,” said Michael McDougall, director of commodities for Societe Generale in New York. “It’s like a large ship that takes a lot to turn. But it looks like it’s finally beginning to turn.”
Sugar mills in Brazil are directing more cane production to ethanol for fuel blending, thanks to government incentives that make prices more attractive.
After a weak domestic crop season, demand from China has been strong, jumping 55 per cent to 3.75 million tonnes in the first nine months of the year.
Singapore-based trading house Wilmar International has taken physical delivery of $US1bn worth of sugar through the financial market so far this year, fanning speculation about increased Asian appetite for the sweetener.
But in a sign that gives some investors pause, producers and processors are now placing bets that prices will fall.
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