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RHT HealthTrust (formerly: Religare Health Trust)
19-10-2012, 11:18 PM.
Post: #31
RE: Religare Health Trust (IPO)
(19-10-2012, 11:14 PM)KopiKat Wrote:
(19-10-2012, 08:44 PM)Nick Wrote: RHT closed at 81.0 cents. It own operational and income generating assets unlike its peer Indiabulls so the probability of meeting its DPU guidance isn't low.

Looking at pg 37 of the Prospectus,

FY 2013 (annualized)

Guided DPU including sponsor waiver: 7.99 SG cents
Real DPU: 5.78 SG cents
Guided Yield: 9.9%
Real Yield: 7.1%

FY 2014

Guided DPU including sponsor waiver: 8.17 SG cents
Real DPU: 5.89 SG cents
Guided Yield: 10.1%
Real Yield: 7.3%

In the long run, INR / SGD rates will play a big role in the Trust performance IMO.

(Not Vested)

Hmmm... compared to a-iTrust on both Gearing and Real Yield, it does look rather attractive for someone who's keen on India exposure. BUT, different types of assets and different Sponsors...

PS. FY13 (Annualised) should be 4ct (in prospectus) x 2 = 8ct? Or you really use the no. of days for 1-Oct-12 to 31-Mar-13 to annualise to get 7.99ct?

I just used their dividend yield based on 90.0 cents and worked backwards ! INR / SGD has been fairly stable over the past 6 months. The low gearing and developmental projects coupled with fairly resilient operating assets with variable income (7.5% of operating income) makes it attractive. Just worried about the forex Tongue
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19-10-2012, 11:21 PM.
Post: #32
RE: Religare Health Trust (IPO)
IPO:
Gone were the good old days of stagging IPO before CDP existed. Even then it was a lucrative practice by big institutions more than retail investors. Nowadays, with electronic calculations, retail investors will only get the dregs of the after distilled IPOs.

{Definition of Stagging from the Internet}

The practice of buying initial public offerings at the offering price and then reselling them once trading has begun, usually for a substantial profit. This is more commonly done by institutional investors than retail investors, because institutional investors get most of the IPO shares at the offering price. Stagging is most profitable in a hot IPO market, when the price of an IPO often rises dramatically above the offering price on the first day. also called flipping.


Read more: http://www.investorwords.com/4679/staggi...z29l3fCLL8
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19-10-2012, 11:23 PM.
Post: #33
RE: Religare Health Trust (IPO)
(19-10-2012, 11:18 PM)Nick Wrote: I just used their dividend yield based on 90.0 cents and worked backwards ! INR / SGD has been fairly stable over the past 6 months. The low gearing and developmental projects coupled with fairly resilient operating assets with variable income (7.5% of operating income) makes it attractive. Just worried about the forex Tongue

Thx! Yes, agree on the FOREX risk, especially since MAS seems intent on their strategy of using steeper gradient appreciation vs USD to export inflation...Rolleyes
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20-10-2012, 02:45 AM.
Post: #34
RE: Religare Health Trust
Just saw the prospectus and the exchange rate information within the prospectus.

Firstly,
"The Trustee-Manager intends to distribute 100.0% of the residual cash flows generated by the RHT Group (“Distributable Income”) for the period from the Listing Date to 31 March 2014. Thereafter, the Trustee-Manager intends to distribute at least 90.0% of its Distributable Income, with the actual level of distribution to be determined at the Trustee-Manager’s absolute discretion."

The high yield being touted as a selling point is due to the 100% of residual cash flows, which brings a question to mind, that Nick has brought up in the issues of Shipping Trusts and KGT. Does the manager plan to retain any income against depreciation?

It looks good however that the manager states that residual income is derived after paying for debt, something that some shipping trusts do not.

On exchange rate, let's assume that the INR/SGD rate slowly increases from 45 to 65
Assuming 9.1% yield at 0.90 is true, that's estimating 0.0819 SGD dividends, or 36.855 INR
Assume this stays constant, and INR/SGD indeed reaches 65, then that would be 0.0567 SGD

At 0.90, this is 6.3%
At 0.80, this is 7.1%
At 0.70, this is 8.1%
At 0.60, this is 9.45%



(Not Vested)
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20-10-2012, 10:12 AM.
Post: #35
RE: Religare Health Trust
Just too many so-called "Trusts" have lost the trust of investors. Will this be an exception ?

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20-10-2012, 10:22 AM.
Post: #36
RE: Religare Health Trust
the trust itself has nothing wrong. just the price is not right.

the underwriters need other ways to price ipo of trust. not based on artificial yield, but other aspects of the trust.

e.g. this trust should be price around 50 cents, that would make more sense to me.

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20-10-2012, 10:26 AM.
Post: #37
RE: Religare Health Trust
I'd previously lost $$ when I was greedy for the higher yields of Aussie sponsored and managed Trusts, who were not financially as strong as many of our local ones. When the last financial crisis came along, they were indeed shown to be swimming naked when the tide went down....

So, another of my concern is the pedigree of the Sponsor (Fortis Healthcare Ltd) and Trustee-Manager (a subsidiary of Religare Enterprise Ltd). Looking at their Share Price performance from Yahoo finance doesn't give me a lot of confidence... The consolation for now is the initial low gearing of RHT...

[Image: z?s=FORTIS.NS&t=2y&q=l&l=on&z=l&c=RELIGA...&region=IN]
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Luck & Fortune Favours those who are Prepared & Decisive when Opportunity Knocks
------------ 知己知彼 ,百战不殆 ;不知彼 ,不知己 ,每战必殆 ------------

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20-10-2012, 10:39 AM.
Post: #38
RE: Religare Health Trust
The consolation for now is the initial low gearing of RHT, well this may change overnight. From what i see at other reits and trusts, the sponsor will always inject more and more "assets" into the reit/trust so that they become more leveraged over time. Sometimes i would prefer that these reit/trust stop growing. Growth is sometimes value destructive in the hands of stupid managment

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20-10-2012, 10:43 AM.
Post: #39
RE: Religare Health Trust
Sponsors always have a ever-ready buyer to pay for their overvalued assets.

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20-10-2012, 10:51 AM.
Post: #40
RE: Religare Health Trust
Omg! i just saw something that religare has in common with indiabulls. It has 4 hospitals still under development, very very similar to indiabulls, when indiabulls was listed, most of its investment properties were still under development. Dont take this too lightly, under development still mean that construction cost has to be accounted for and it will most likely take on bank debt to pay for the construction. Suddenly, you may see religare being more leveraged.

And if after development, the facilites get underutilised, you start to get lousy profits, maybe even losses

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