Ying Li International Real Estate

[RBM]

I have to admit to being a tad concerned when I read Ying Li's 31st December SGX announcement regarding the departure of their CFO (I was vested in another China-focused-counter several years ago where reports of irregularities followed the CFO's departure).

But I cannot complain about the recent performance of Ying Li's share price. At its Friday closing of S$ 0.44, the share price is up 19% (nineteen percent) on its December 31st closing price and up 83% (eighty-three percent) on its early June 2012 low of S$ 0.24. Since DBS Vickers' February 2012 Trading Buy Recommendation (when I was dumb enough to follow their advice), the share price almost halved but has rebounded so that I now have a small paper gain.............. if only I had the courage to have invested more last June!!.

As the bad news regarding Chongqing (mainly of a political nature) has subsided in the second half of 2012, Ying Li's share price seems to have benefited. Daily trading volumes in recent days have exceeded 15 Million shares - I wonder if something corporate or major is in the works??

Vested

[cliffordng888]

Hi guys,

Anyone selling because of this?

I have to admit to being a tad concerned when I read Ying Li's 31st December SGX announcement regarding the departure of their CFO (I was vested in another China-focused-counter several years ago where reports of irregularities followed the CFO's departure).

But I cannot complain about the recent performance of Ying Li's share price. At its Friday closing of S$ 0.44, the share price is up 19% (nineteen percent) on its December 31st closing price and up 83% (eighty-three percent) on its early June 2012 low of S$ 0.24. Since DBS Vickers' February 2012 Trading Buy Recommendation (when I was dumb enough to follow their advice), the share price almost halved but has rebounded so that I now have a small paper gain.............. if only I had the courage to have invested more last June!!.

As the bad news regarding Chongqing (mainly of a political nature) has subsided in the second half of 2012, Ying Li's share price seems to have benefited. Daily trading volumes in recent days have exceeded 15 Million shares - I wonder if something corporate or major is in the works??

Vested

[RBM]

A pleasing ~ 6.2% increase in Ying Li’s share price today in a very high traded volume of over 44.3 Million shares, the highest daily volume in over a year. In the process, Ying Li’s share price burst thru the previous 52-week high, settling on a close of S$ 0.515. For those who were fortunate enough to vest in early June last year, they will have seen a 115% (one hundred & fifteen percent) gain in Ying Li's share price over the last 8 months. It looks from the outside that some stability has returned to Chongqing and recently there has been no “bad news”.

However, I do not want to pretend that Chongqing’s problems are a thing of the past. Bo Xilai’s trial will commence in the not-too-distant-future and that may adversely impact sentiment towards Chongqing (and indirectly Ying Li). I found the attached piece by AFP’s Neil Connor quite sobering ………….. for those vested in Ying Li, I suggest that it is worth the read.

QUOTE
One Year On, China's Bo Scandal Haunts Chongqing
By Neil Connor | AFP News – Wed, Feb 6, 2013

One year after Chongqing's police chief set off China's biggest scandal in decades, the megacity has seen revelations of torture and corruption but little action on alleged abuses during the reign of disgraced leader Bo Xilai. Symbols of Bo's time in power have been erased from the city he ruled as Communist Party chief, but media reports on his wrongdoings say little of his links with leaders of the party in which he was once a rising star.

The scandal began to emerge on February 6th, when Wang Lijun fled to a US consulate seeking asylum after falling out with his patron Bo, now held at a secret location awaiting trial for crimes including abuse of power and bribery. Wang has been jailed for 15 years on similar charges, while Bo's wife was handed a suspended death sentence for the murder of a British businessman -- one of the most lurid elements in the drama.

As Chongqing boss and member of the elite Politburo, Bo stood out for his suave and open demeanour, seen as refreshing among China's rigid leadership. But his signature ideological and anti-mafia campaigns drew both hero-worship and accusations of serious abuses. The gang crackdown saw thousands of people arrested and several high-profile executions, while his "Sing Red" Maoist revivalism saw stadiums packed out for patriotic concerts and officials sent to work in the countryside, raising memories of the disastrous Cultural Revolution.

Analysts say a stream of reports in recent months -- including details of torture centres, hushed-up sex tapes of local politicians, and labour camp sentences for dissenters -- foreshadow harsh punishment for Bo. Chongqing's mayor declared last month that his influence had been "eradicated", and characters rendered in Wang's own calligraphy have been erased from a pair of huge concrete balls outside the police headquarters.

But more fundamental changes in the 33-million-strong municipality, such as legal attempts to overturn what human rights lawyers see as unjust verdicts during Bo's tenure, have foundered. Ren Jianyu, a low-level Chongqing official sentenced to two years labour for criticising Bo's policies online, was released early after nationwide outrage, but his lawsuit for wrongful imprisonment was rejected in November. Last week a request for damages by Fang Hong, a blogger who was sent to a Chongqing labour camp for posting a scatological joke about Bo online also failed. "Before and after Bo and Wang, the re-education through labour committees in Chongqing are still mighty," said Fang's lawyer, referring to the panels which send people to the notorious camps.

At a secret base amid pine-clad mountains in the Tieshanping Forest Park, police are said to have tortured confessions from scores of suspects during Bo's so-called anti-mafia crackdown. Detainees were put in a device known as a "Tiger Bench", a state-run newspaper reported, quoting one victim as saying they "wouldn't sleep for days and nights, and were not able to escape from beatings".

In September the Xinhua news agency said a Communist Party investigation found evidence that Bo covered up his wife's murder case, had multiple mistresses, and accepted "massive bribes" during his tenure. But in a country where reports about top politicians are strictly controlled and official corruption is endemic, Bo's once strong links with Party leaders are studiously ignored as authorities attempt to cauterise the damage. "The reporting is managed," said Steve Tsang, professor of contemporary Chinese studies at Britain's Nottingham University. "Journalists who knew about those abuses are now allowed to report about them, and you also have the Communist Party wanting to project an image that the abuses were at the local level," he said.

Even so the accounts seem to have done little to alter Bo's popularity in Chongqing, where many locals say they benefited from rapid economic growth and lower crime rates under his rule. "I think he was a very gentle leader, who was close to the people," a 23-year-old travel agent surnamed Xiong told AFP. "There is a lot said about his corruption, but us Chongqingers still think he was a good person." Chen Shuliang, a 100-year-old party member from Chongqing's countryside, was more blunt. "Bo wasn't corrupt," he insisted.
Party authorities must tread a fine line between displaying Bo's abuses ahead of his trial, and preventing other similar injustices being exposed nationwide, analysts say. "It's understood that similar cases are not uncommon in different parts of the country," said Willy Lam, a politics expert at Chinese University of Hong Kong. "If the human rights lawyers are successful, that would set a precedent for other cases for miscarriages of justice to be overturned," he added, "and obviously Beijing doesn't want that because it would lead to instability."

UNQUOTE

Vested

[pianist]

Btw bo xilai is a hero for many in the northeast. He was a gd major.

[RBM]

Ying Li reported out their FY 2012 financials earlier this week. I was interested to read their FY 2012 Financial Statement in light of their strong share price appreciation in recent months – but I found the chart pack in the attached link to be more digestible (i.e. the photo’s and the pictures helped!!)…………….

http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/V...F0002085F/$file/Ying_Li_4Q2012_Analyst_Presentation_Slides.pdf?openelement

My take on Ying Li’s results:

+ve: FY NPAT up by ~ 35% to RMB 378 Mln. Chongqing’s commercial rental rates continue to move in the right direction (if you are a landlord that is!) – Ying Li’s FY 2012 rental revenues were up > 81% as compared to FY 2011 – this helped compensate to some extent for a ~ 8% drop in sales revenues.

+ve: Looking forward, 2013 looks to have quite some promise for the Company – a full year load of rental revenues from Ying Li’s IFC project and hopefully meaty revenue recognitions from their International Plaza project. As an aside, I was interested in the presence of some noteworthy Singaporean tenants in the IFC Office (e.g. DBS, OCBC, Capitaland)

+ve: The Chongqing macro-indicators displayed on Chart 24 of the link are striking – yes, the Chongqing growth story is widely known ………… but ………. 13.6% y-o-y GDP Increase, 18% y-o-y Industrial Output increase, Retail Sales up 16% etc. etc. Is there another city in Asia Pacific that can currently better or even come close to such growth numbers? I really like Ying Li’s focus on Chongqing and specifically the company’s bias on commercial & retail real estate in the city.

-ve: Core earnings, i.e. excluding re-valuation gains were disappointing at ~ RMB 81 Million – frankly stated, a higher core earnings level had been expected (e.g. by DBSV analyst). Revenue recognition was obviously slower than anticipated.

-ve: Still no dividend. And I don’t expect one in respect of FY 2013 either.

-ve: Gearing remains at ~ 55%. My concern here is what would happen if a “cold wind blows”, e.g. Chongqing’s stellar growth comes to an abrupt halt for whatever reason.

My late dad often said to me “you learn something bl**dy useless every day”. Well the useless fact I learned today is ………….. more printers are made in Chongqing than any other location in the world (look at Chart 25 for some other “interesting” Chongqing facts).

Vested

[RBM]

In common with other PRC focused Property Developers, Ying Li's share price has been hit hard during today's trading on the SGX, i.e. down ~ 9% in volume not far shy of 14 Million shares, at the time of writing (3.15 pm Singapore time). It seems that Ying Li's focus on commercial real estate has not given it any immunity from the tougher-than-expected Property Price Curb measures announced by the PRC Government last Friday.

China's two largest developers by sales, Shenzhen-listed China Vanke and Shanghai-listed Poly Real Estate have each seen share price drops of the maximum permitted 10%. At 3.15 p.m. the Shanghai property sub-index was down > 9 %, looking set or its worst daily loss in over 4.1/2 years.

Vested in Ying Li (not in China Vanke & Poly RE)

[RBM]

Following on from my message of this mid afternoon, below..........

1. Ying Li's share price finished the day at S$ 0.46, down 8.9% from its previous close - it had been down as much as 11.9% at one stage during the afternoon. Volume was a heavy 22.5 Million shares. Not a good day for those vested in Ying Li!

2. I'm still puzzled why Ying Li's share price should be so hard hit, i.e. hit as hard as residential PRC property developers. While it very much looks like Chongqing is one of the cities subject to the (apparently) very tough measures announced by the PRC Government last Friday, it is unclear (to me at least) why a primarily commercial real estate developer such as Ying Li is hit so hard by measures which are focused on the residential property market. May be it is the tax-on-capital-gains measure which has spooked investors? I'm still digging.

3. As a direct result of the measures announced last Friday, Chinese "Property Experts" are predicted a 5%-10% fall in residential property prices in the targeted PRC cities within the coming 3-6 months. IF this prediction turns out to be correct, me wonders if the Singapore Government might want a close look at what their PRC counterparts are implementing!

Vested

In common with other PRC focused Property Developers, Ying Li's share price has been hit hard during today's trading on the SGX, i.e. down ~ 9% in volume not far shy of 14 Million shares, at the time of writing (3.15 pm Singapore time). It seems that Ying Li's focus on commercial real estate has not given it any immunity from the tougher-than-expected Property Price Curb measures announced by the PRC Government last Friday.

China's two largest developers by sales, Shenzhen-listed China Vanke and Shanghai-listed Poly Real Estate have each seen share price drops of the maximum permitted 10%. At 3.15 p.m. the Shanghai property sub-index was down > 9 %, looking set or its worst daily loss in over 4.1/2 years.

Vested in Ying Li (not in China Vanke & Poly RE)

[2V.]

I intrepreted the action of the PRC CEO stepped down to let Mr Ko (EDB man) be Group CEO as he believed his fund raising capabilities?

With current PRC market condition, is he able to raise funds for expansion? Of course I believe he can, only placement price discount% it matters to us.....

Following on from my message of this mid afternoon, below..........

1. Ying Li's share price finished the day at S$ 0.46, down 8.9% from its previous close - it had been down as much as 11.9% at one stage during the afternoon. Volume was a heavy 22.5 Million shares. Not a good day for those vested in Ying Li!

2. I'm still puzzled why Ying Li's share price should be so hard hit, i.e. hit as hard as residential PRC property developers. While it very much looks like Chongqing is one of the cities subject to the (apparently) very tough measures announced by the PRC Government last Friday, it is unclear (to me at least) why a primarily commercial real estate developer such as Ying Li is hit so hard by measures which are focused on the residential property market. May be it is the tax-on-capital-gains measure which has spooked investors? I'm still digging.

3. As a direct result of the measures announced last Friday, Chinese "Property Experts" are predicted a 5%-10% fall in residential property prices in the targeted PRC cities within the coming 3-6 months. IF this prediction turns out to be correct, me wonders if the Singapore Government might want a close look at what their PRC counterparts are implementing!

Vested

In common with other PRC focused Property Developers, Ying Li's share price has been hit hard during today's trading on the SGX, i.e. down ~ 9% in volume not far shy of 14 Million shares, at the time of writing (3.15 pm Singapore time). It seems that Ying Li's focus on commercial real estate has not given it any immunity from the tougher-than-expected Property Price Curb measures announced by the PRC Government last Friday.

China's two largest developers by sales, Shenzhen-listed China Vanke and Shanghai-listed Poly Real Estate have each seen share price drops of the maximum permitted 10%. At 3.15 p.m. the Shanghai property sub-index was down > 9 %, looking set or its worst daily loss in over 4.1/2 years.

Vested in Ying Li (not in China Vanke & Poly RE)

[RBM]

Ying Li's share price has yet to stabilise, it was down a further ~ 2.2% to S$ 0.45 at the close of today's SGX trading session - at one point it had been ~ 3.3% down but recovered towards the end of the trading session. Trading volume of just under 13 Million shares. All this on a very positive day for ST Index.

Ying Li's share price is now down ~ 17.5% from its 52-week high of two weeks ago ............. but I comfort myself with the reality that this counter is still up > 100% as compared to the price only nine months ago.

Other PRC focused property counters generally had a darn good day today, posting multi-percentage gains - they seem to have already recovered a chunk of the ground they lost on Monday. Not so for Ying Li. I am begining to wonder if a) Ying Li is getting overlooked (i.e. now is a darn good buying opportunity) or b) there is something going on that is specific to Chongqing, i.e. as the recently announced property measures apply to the city's real estate. I don't buy into the story that it is anything to do with the appointment of the new CEO.

Just my two cents worth!

Vested

[2V.]

my intrepretation of the new CEO is that Co may be arranging a share placement, if I own the shares and going to subscribe placement shares at lower price. That will be a good abritrage opportunities...

Of course my intrepretation may be wrong, future will tell...

Ying Li's share price has yet to stabilise, it was down a further ~ 2.2% to S$ 0.45 at the close of today's SGX trading session - at one point it had been ~ 3.3% down but recovered towards the end of the trading session. Trading volume of just under 13 Million shares. All this on a very positive day for ST Index.

Ying Li's share price is now down ~ 17.5% from its 52-week high of two weeks ago ............. but I comfort myself with the reality that this counter is still up > 100% as compared to the price only nine months ago.

Other PRC focused property counters generally had a darn good day today, posting multi-percentage gains - they seem to have already recovered a chunk of the ground they lost on Monday. Not so for Ying Li. I am begining to wonder if a) Ying Li is getting overlooked (i.e. now is a darn good buying opportunity) or b) there is something going on that is specific to Chongqing, i.e. as the recently announced property measures apply to the city's real estate. I don't buy into the story that it is anything to do with the appointment of the new CEO.

Just my two cents worth!

Vested