Great Eastern Holding

[kbl]

1.0m shares just crossed on board at 18.08. This is following 300k done at 17.96 last friday.

Getting really interesting

Yes...another married deal today...something cooking?

vested

[desmondxyz]

someone is stacking up the stake?? hohoho....

[thefarside]

someone is stacking up the stake?? hohoho....

There are currently no "significant" minorities in Great Eastern with >5% combined shareholding. So there is no visibility, unless you compare top 20 shareholders year on year to see what is the difference.

OCBC holds 87.17% - but if they are buying they will only need to declare if they cross 88.0% (c. 4 mil shares on top of current holdings), which is unlikely as that will surely trigger a feeding frenzy. Maybe they would... so near yet so far. Buy another 3% and scare the minorities with a suspension > delisting prospects. Ho ho ho...

[kbl]

OCBC need to delcare within 3days even they r just buying 1share. Pls correct me if i am wrong.

[greengiraffe]

There OCBC CEO interview is already quite clear.

If OCBC wanted to buy, they would have bought from the market long time ago.

In my opinion, OCBC will not risks a 3rd failed attempt unless someone can confidently sell OCBC a block of shares that will successfully bring OCBC above 90%.

Previously, Marathon Assets was rumoured to be holding in excess of 3%. Since the retirement of Hosking, who knows where they are down to and who has emerged as the buyer of Marathon's stake.

[desmondxyz]

Could it be someone else staking up the share ON BEHALF of ocbc? 3% of share still no visibility....then one shot sell to ocbc at premium? If such a deal was arranged under table, there is no violation of rule right?

[thefarside]

Could it be someone else staking up the share ON BEHALF of ocbc? 3% of share still no visibility....then one shot sell to ocbc at premium? If such a deal was arranged under table, there is no violation of rule right?

This collection exercise, if any exists, would cost like 200+ million, for something in excess of 13 million shares.

I don't think OCBC can sanction any exercise like this without issues with internal governance.

greengiraffe is right here in the sense that if OCBC wants GE badly enough they will have to table a proper offer and get enough of the top 20 shareholders to surrender to reach 90+% then compulsory acquisition - if my understanding of the code is correct. However if you look at that list, they are all very rich people, or "strong hands"....

It will also be interesting to see if the list has fractured since 2011 in the coming annual report - given the speculation that Marathon might have exited.

As for further guesses, I think Lee family still have a couple of millions in individual hands on that top 20 list to support any OCBC offer, and maybe they are the one doing the collecting (with the right motive and financial resources), but the rest are not likely sellers unless the offer is good enough, whatever that share price may be.

[kbl]

hope to see another married deal today after 4pm.

[greengiraffe]

Could it be someone else staking up the share ON BEHALF of ocbc? 3% of share still no visibility....then one shot sell to ocbc at premium? If such a deal was arranged under table, there is no violation of rule right?

This collection exercise, if any exists, would cost like 200+ million, for something in excess of 13 million shares.

I don't think OCBC can sanction any exercise like this without issues with internal governance.

greengiraffe is right here in the sense that if OCBC wants GE badly enough they will have to table a proper offer and get enough of the top 20 shareholders to surrender to reach 90+% then compulsory acquisition - if my understanding of the code is correct. However if you look at that list, they are all very rich people, or "strong hands"....

It will also be interesting to see if the list has fractured since 2011 in the coming annual report - given the speculation that Marathon might have exited.

As for further guesses, I think Lee family still have a couple of millions in individual hands on that top 20 list to support any OCBC offer, and maybe they are the one doing the collecting (with the right motive and financial resources), but the rest are not likely sellers unless the offer is good enough, whatever that share price may be.

Thanks for the thoughtful analysis.

Indeed with the limited free float and strong hands, I concur that even a thorough analysis of the latest top 20 shareholders may not be sufficient to see if the list is indeed fractured.

If you googled Marathon Assets:

http://www.marathonfund.com/?page=4&ptit...20Overview

Hosking is no longer around. However, nothing appears to indicate that Marathon Asset Management is history. Hence, we can never rule out that Marathon Assets could have exited GE even though in the run up to Hosking's retirement, we did observe that some major Marathon Asset's holdings such as Guoco Leisure and STATS was sold off and GE share price was capped throughout the period when other filings surfaced.

In any event, Marathon Assets true stake in GE was never revealed since they never own in excess of 5%. The rumoured stake was 3%. Assuming with the stake, Marathon can comfortably approach OCBC at the point of Hosking's retirement to do a one swoop disposal at a good price.

Hence, we as holders can only hope that someone or someones are working in the background to accumulate the necessary stake and convince OCBC that a certain price higher than current levels are a fair value to pay in order to assume full control by OCBC in GE.

Can only keep hoping and hope certainly keeps dreams alive.

Vested

[greengiraffe]

AIA Group 2012 highlights:

http://investors.aia.com/phoenix.zhtml?c...ol-reports
http://investors.aia.com/phoenix.zhtml?c...omeprofile

EV/share: US$31408m/12044m = US$2.608/share
Last trade HK$33.60

Price/EVpershare = 1.66x

GE should be at a discount due to slower EV growth and OCBC's 87% stake.