HupSteel

[Ben]

Cash + redeveloped value of building/land is approx market cap. Not just cash.

well then that is cash + asset to me...

since its cyclical, instead of being value trapped, will it be better to put on watchlist and jump in when marine steel start showing turnaround?

At the moment it looks like still downtrend for shipping industry...

there are many areas in shipping industry, and each has a very different cycles. Building big ships like dry bulk, tanker, container ships may still be in down cycle, but not so for OSV, barges, tugs etc. So depending on where they are supplying their steel.

[paullow]

namlee techwah spindex does not have a significant real estate portfolio in relation to its market. moreover, hups real estate was last revalued 20yrs ago. and plans already announced for redev of its kim chuan.
value trap? maybe. but i think we should see it unlocking soon.
read the ar from 2006-2012. every ar brings the reader closer to unlocking the value.
imo, its potentially a multibagger once its core biz recovers(which i think is only a matter of time)
i dun see that multibagger chance in tw, spdx,nl. (enlighten me if u think otherwise)
also from past history, recovery may come suddenly. rise of few folds qoq has happened before in 2004(if my memory is rite)
it might be too late if u are talking of buying a few thpusand lots)
imo, now at 22.5c cd its damn cheap bargain price. i think ceo lim is of similar view.
and to give dividends when eps is so weak, one can draw conclusion of the confidence the management has in steering its steel biz to recovery.

[mulyc]

still waiting patiently...

[paullow]

look at keck seng kl bursa. vast ppty portfolio last valued donkey yrs ago.
now in process of unlocking..... those who bought at rm2-3 laughing way to bank.
keck seng owns a prime building in shenton way.
i shan't discuss much of this here. just to illustrate unlocking thingi.

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the key is patience, patience and more patience, after u have done ur dues.....

[BlueKelah]

um.. why dont they just get auditor to revalue their real estate then? trying to save on paying more land tax?

with the world economy in this state with even crazy growth china coming down. can we see commodity or shipping cycle back uptrend anytime soon?

yeah totally understand the unlocking part, happened with some other SG companies I know. But for keck seng 2 dollar was during GFC times. Lots of stocks have doubled since then so nothing too excited..

[kelvesy]

<snippet> trying to save on paying more land tax?

with the world economy in this state with even crazy growth china coming down. can we see commodity or shipping cycle back uptrend anytime soon? </snippet>

I don't think saving on land tax is valid. IRAS will consider the rentals of similar properties in the vicinity, size and condition of the property, and other relevant factors before deriving an annual value. I would suspect, they're already paying land tax on the market value of their properties now. Pls correct me if I am wrong.

Commodities always tend to fare badly when interest rates or low. Their recovery could be seen when interest rates are high. Commodities are known to have low correlation to other asset classes. My answer: not so soon.

How are your thoughts on commodity and shipping cycle, do you mind sharing as well?

[BlueKelah]

<snippet> trying to save on paying more land tax?

with the world economy in this state with even crazy growth china coming down. can we see commodity or shipping cycle back uptrend anytime soon? </snippet>

I don't think saving on land tax is valid. IRAS will consider the rentals of similar properties in the vicinity, size and condition of the property, and other relevant factors before deriving an annual value. I would suspect, they're already paying land tax on the market value of their properties now. Pls correct me if I am wrong.

Commodities always tend to fare badly when interest rates or low. Their recovery could be seen when interest rates are high. Commodities are known to have low correlation to other asset classes. My answer: not so soon.

How are your thoughts on commodity and shipping cycle, do you mind sharing as well?

I feel the commodity and shipping cycle are approaching their low levels now, about halfway++ down to historic lows. Especially the ones i am interested/tracking is rubber and palm. as for shipping will depend a lot on recovery of europe and US demand.

I am more a believer that USA is in a deflationary cycle. So not much inflation despite massive stimulus .

Just follow the US and China PMI figures/trend you will get an idea when shipping/commodity gonna pick up.

[paullow]

Of late, looking at ceo lim share back, I decided to check the buy back pattern over time.

Let's go to the summary of the findings:

1) first share buy back started in 2009. 1/10/2009 300,000 done
2) as of the start of 2012, a total of 4,783,000 done
3) as of the end of 2012, a total of 5,421,000 done
4) as of 14/6/2013 (ie about 6mths of 2013) 7,676,000 done

Objectively, we can conclude that more than 2M shares were bought back in the past 6months of this year already, which account for a whopping 40% of the share buy back for the past 4years 2009-2012.

Really, the management appears in a hurry to buy back their own shares.

[BlueKelah]

Of late, looking at ceo lim share back, I decided to check the buy back pattern over time.

Let's go to the summary of the findings:

1) first share buy back started in 2009. 1/10/2009 300,000 done
2) as of the start of 2012, a total of 4,783,000 done
3) as of the end of 2012, a total of 5,421,000 done
4) as of 14/6/2013 (ie about 6mths of 2013) 7,676,000 done

Objectively, we can conclude that more than 2M shares were bought back in the past 6months of this year already, which account for a whopping 40% of the share buy back for the past 4years 2009-2012.

Really, the management appears in a hurry to buy back their own shares.

Do you think its for delisting purposes or value-add purposes?

[paullow]

I think we have to wait and see. judging from the volume of share bought back in a short time compared to the historical past, I think it won't be long before the true intent is out.
But in any case, existing shareholders already got value added to their existing sharesholdings.