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China Sunsine Chemicals Holdings
26-08-2012, 02:18 PM. (This post was last modified: 26-08-2012, 02:19 PM by Stockerman.)
Post: #21
RE: China Sunsine Chemicals Holdings
We are talking about the entire collapse of China economy to a level which is more sustainable...

If you go around China and talk to local people, u will realize the extent of the problems...

(25-08-2012, 08:50 PM)CityFarmer Wrote:
(25-08-2012, 08:32 PM)Underdogger Wrote: i think we might see a lot of S chips closing shops in the few months ahead if economic situation does not improve....

Part of the issue is that the Chinese government’s leaders have decided to put quality-of-life concerns ahead of maximizing economic growth when it comes to two of the country’s largest industries: housing and autos.

The Chinese auto industry has grown tenfold in the last decade to become the world’s largest, looking like a formidable challenger to Detroit. But now, the Chinese industry is starting to look more like Detroit in its dark days in the 1980s.

Very bad prognosis for auto industries...Any issue with China Sunssine's sales going forwards for the next few months?

It does raise a concern with economic condition in China, and the rest of the world.

China Sunsine will be affected, but it may not reach a level to cause a dive in the company profit, and the share price.

During a crisis, probably a good time to capture market share, if the company perform better than their competitors.

(not vested)

James Chanos had predicted huge amt of unsold goods back in Nov 2010 - Now we are seeing it - Soon the whole world will feel the ripples...

In January, 2011, the NY Times wrote an article on James Chanos, who predicted the Enron collapse, Tyco and other major financial issues. The article quoted him as telling Politico in November, 2010, “The Chinese are in danger of producing huge quantities of goods and products that they will be unable to sell.”

Now in 2012 we have the NY Times headline, China's economy besieged by buildup of unsold goods.

This is just the tip of the iceberg, says Chanos.

His fund has over 6 billion dollars bet on the Chinese economy collapsing.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Life and career
James Chanos was born in 1957. He was born into a Greek family living in Milwaukee.[1] he graduated from Wylie E. Groves High School, and then Yale in 1980. He describes his investment strategy as being based on "intensive research into stocks"[2] looking for fundamental and large market failures in valuation, typically based on underestimated or previously unreported failings in the business or market of a stock. Followed by committing to a (usually large) short-position which he is willing to hold for long period of time—almost the mirror image of Warren Buffett's reputed "fundamentals+long stay" investment strategy[citation needed]. Because of this model, his investments function more like those of a whistle-blower than most typical investments. Examples of this include short-selling companies such as Baldwin-United, and more recently Enron Corporation.[3]
He rose to fame in the 1980s as a short seller. After working as an analyst in several firms, he founded Kynikos (Greek for "cynic") in 1985 as a firm specializing in short selling. A critical position taken at Kynikos was his shorting of Enron.[4]
In October 2000, Chanos started research into the valuation of Enron Corporation. He examined their use of mark-to-model (opposed to mark-to-market) accounting, which, in Chanos' view, results in management overstating earnings, as well as what appeared to be a worryingly low (6-7%) return on capital investment. Enron stock declined from $90 in August 2000 to a low of $1 near the end of 2001.[5] Over this period, Chanos was a short seller of Enron during 2001, increasing his short position as more information surfaced. Kynikos profited greatly and Chanos himself became something of a celebrity as a consequence of his early awareness of Enron's problems.[6]
In 2010, James Chanos warned that China’s hyperstimulated economy was headed for a crash, not a sustained boom.[7] He questioned the stability of Chinese economy, stating that historically analogous evidence points especially to a housing bubble, mentioning commercial real estate in particular.[8]

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26-08-2012, 07:05 PM.
Post: #22
RE: China Sunsine Chemicals Holdings
"He describes his investment strategy as being based on "intensive research into stocks"[2] looking for fundamental and large market failures in valuation, typically based on underestimated or previously unreported failings in the business or market of a stock. Followed by committing to a (usually large) short-position which he is willing to hold for long period of time—almost the mirror image of Warren Buffett's reputed "fundamentals+long stay" investment strategy"

Well, i am not so sure it is a mirror image of WB? I do not know him, but if the article is correct, then i am not so sure he is comparable with WB

One of the key idea of WB is never time the market price, but focus on the stock long-term prospect.

Shorting is to time the market price, irregardless of holding power.

Prediction is always there. Some pessimistic, some optimistic, and some neutral.

I heard "great recession similar with 1930" appeared frequently during 2009. I also heard "collapse of financial industrial in US" during 2009

Does it sound similar with the collapse of China economy?
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“夏则资皮,冬则资纱,旱则资船,水则资车” - 范蠡

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27-08-2012, 09:27 AM.
Post: #23
China Sunsine Chemicals Holdings
Chanos is well regarded. His idea is to short things that cannot be sustainable in his opinion.

I dont think it is mirror image of wb. While value investors tend not to time mkt, some others do (soros, paulson, chanos) so its not the only game out there.

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27-08-2012, 02:43 PM.
Post: #24
RE: China Sunsine Chemicals Holdings
(27-08-2012, 09:27 AM)godjira1 Wrote: Chanos is well regarded. His idea is to short things that cannot be sustainable in his opinion.

I dont think it is mirror image of wb. While value investors tend not to time mkt, some others do (soros, paulson, chanos) so its not the only game out there.

As a strong supporter of WB, value investment has its unique definition.

I agreed with you there is more than one successful game out there e.g. Donald Trump for property, George Soros for hedge fund etc.

But they should not be tagged as value investor.

Pardon me for being so particular. Tongue
=========== Signature ===========
“夏则资皮,冬则资纱,旱则资船,水则资车” - 范蠡

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27-08-2012, 03:42 PM.
Post: #25
China Sunsine Chemicals Holdings
(27-08-2012, 02:43 PM)CityFarmer Wrote:
(27-08-2012, 09:27 AM)godjira1 Wrote: Chanos is well regarded. His idea is to short things that cannot be sustainable in his opinion.

I dont think it is mirror image of wb. While value investors tend not to time mkt, some others do (soros, paulson, chanos) so its not the only game out there.

As a strong supporter of WB, value investment has its unique definition.

I agreed with you there is more than one successful game out there e.g. Donald Trump for property, George Soros for hedge fund etc.

But they should not be tagged as value investor.

Pardon me for being so particular. Tongue

Oops i see my english wasnt very good in the above.

I do agree with you re definition of value investor. Soros, chanos, lynch are not value investors but they found success thru other methods.

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27-08-2012, 11:48 PM.
Post: #26
RE: China Sunsine Chemicals Holdings
Shanghai index fell to 3.5 yr low today....Chanos must be laughing all the way home ...

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28-08-2012, 06:29 PM.
Post: #27
RE: China Sunsine Chemicals Holdings
RESIGNATION OF AUDITOR

http://info.sgx.com/webcorannc.nsf/Annou...endocument

Each time auditor change should raise a concern. I did not find any other alarming flags yet, so probably remain as concern.
=========== Signature ===========
“夏则资皮,冬则资纱,旱则资船,水则资车” - 范蠡

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29-08-2012, 01:30 PM.
Post: #28
RE: China Sunsine Chemicals Holdings
CityFarmer,
Paul Wan & Co has indicated that the decision to resign as the auditor of Sunsine Chemicals is purely commercial; and because of the challenging environment it has decided not to provide external audit services to listed companies. This should provide some comfort that the resignation was not triggered by discovery of serious lapses at Sunsine Chemicals.
If Paul Wan has also served resignation notices to other listed companies that it audits, the common concern associated with change of auditor may be lessened.
Have other clients of Paul Wan & Co made similar disclosure to SGX?

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29-08-2012, 02:29 PM.
Post: #29
RE: China Sunsine Chemicals Holdings
Last month, Paul Wan & Co resigned as the auditor of Yong Xin International Holdings, citing the same reason.

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29-08-2012, 05:22 PM.
Post: #30
RE: China Sunsine Chemicals Holdings
Thanks portuser and Sfsh12

The update is useful to ease the concern. Big Grin

(not vested)
=========== Signature ===========
“夏则资皮,冬则资纱,旱则资船,水则资车” - 范蠡

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