math_of_money
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M1 (formerly: MobileOne)
21-04-2012, 11:39 AM,
Post: #21
RE: M1 (MobileOne Limited)
The M1 1box service was officially launched around Nov 2010, but it is not actively promoted. It stay as a "trial" services by M1.

I notice that the intensity of the promotion getting higher. I saw a active promotion in ST today.

1box is not pay-TV service, it is an interactive TV service. One of the value enhancing service on top of the fixed service. It provide interactive programs and movie selection.

http://www.m1.com.sg/1box/index.html?1box=01

The infrastructure provide similar distribution platform for pay-TV service offering in future. It can be used as "trial" platform for pay-TV.

I am anticipating more active promotion of new value enhancing services to residential customer of M1 Wink
“夏则资皮,冬则资纱,旱则资船,水则资车” - 范蠡

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24-04-2012, 03:55 PM,
Post: #22
RE: M1 (MobileOne Limited)
(12-04-2012, 12:42 PM)cif5000 Wrote:
(30-03-2012, 11:18 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: It seem that M1 will build-up another service revenue stream in 5 years beside mobile and internation call.
(30-03-2012, 11:18 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: Please feel free to comment/feedback on my projection above

The fiber is to replace the xDSL and dial-up (I wonder who are still tied to this). Therefore the increase in fiber revenue should offset against the decrease in xDSL revenue. In fact, M1 has already issued notices for current users to migrate to fiber at an offer price while they terminate their xDSL service.

A more certain beneficiary for higher NGNBN take up rate is the NetCo, and perhaps the OpCo as well, due to their monopoly positions.

I paid $39 for a 100mbps to M1. A large proportion goes to paying the OpCo ($21). OpCo in turn pays the NetCo $15 for the passive network. The higher the bandwidth, the better the margin for the RSPs. But RSPs have to "compete" among themselves. So far so good for M1, as the other 2 have taken up the more lucrative roles. Starhub runs the OpCo (now) while Singtel has a stake in the NetCo.

And so I thought, why not have a stake in the NetCo? How much is the NetCo worth if we do a DCF for the 25 year concession based on conservative take up rate? Out of the 4 shareholders, 3 are listed. The market cap of SPH and Singtel is $6bn and $49bn respectively, i.e. the needle won't move much, if at all. The smallest shareholder (by market cap) owns 30% of the NetCo but has a market cap of about $120m despite the stock gaining >50% in the last 6 mth. (Btw, this was my stock idea for 2011. Good luck!)

The NetCo, OpenNet paid-up capital is 20 Mils, base on Singtel contribution of 6 Mils for 30% share. Base on the fibre rollout revenue generated by Singtel as OpenNet's contractor, the up-to-date (till Dec 2011) rollout expenses of OpenNet amounted to 582 Mils for 85% coverage.

The next 15% is the toughest one, which logically will incur more expense. Even with 750 Mils of Gov Grant, will OpenNet blow the budget and ask for more capital from its shareholders?

Furthermore will OpenNet and IDA end-up like LTA and SMRT, engage in a fight if OpenNet not able to fulfill the dateline on time?
“夏则资皮,冬则资纱,旱则资船,水则资车” - 范蠡

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27-04-2012, 05:23 PM,
Post: #23
RE: M1 (MobileOne Limited)
Competitor Analysis of M1's Fix Service biz is a popular topic among my peers whenever in a gathering. One of the competitors is the "other RSPs" which i define as all RSPs excludes Starhub and Singtel.

Base on my best awareness, there are 17 registered RSPs. At the moment, most of them are passive except M1, Starhub, Singtel, MyRepublic, SuperInternet and LGA Telecom.

What is the key competitive advantages of M1 vs the "other RSPs"?

The M1's key competitive advantages are

1. M1's brand name and existing customer base (mobile and broadband customers). It enable M1 to reach critical mass on number of user quicker. M1 will enjoy the benefit of economies of scale faster than "other RSPs"

2. An effective marketing strategy is bundled services. For "other RSPs" which only provide fix broadband service, M1 has an obvious advantage when promoting bundled services with fix broadband, mobile and fix telephone.

Starhub and Singtel do have similar advantages over "other RSPs".

Does it mean "other RSPs" have no room to participate in the fiber broadband service biz? IMO, the "other RSPs" can survive only in niche biz, rather than main stream stream biz. For example, MyRepublic focus on gaming packages and LGA Telecom focus on biz collaboration tools.

In conclusion, "other RSPs" will not serve as effective competitor to the big 3 RSPs, namely M1, Singtel and Starhub.

I saw an advertisement from MyRepublic on TODAY (dated April 24, 2012). It offer S$59/month 100Mbps Fiber Broadband package, 2 years contract with 5 months free + S$200 freebies (router, anti-virus, free installation) + S$20 voucher to offset your bill.

vs

M1 current promotion offer S$45/month, 100 Mbps Fiber Broadband package + mobile broadband mData value + Home Fixed Voice Service.

Which one will you chose?

I will touch on competition landscape of M1 with Starhub and Singtel in next posting Big Grin
“夏则资皮,冬则资纱,旱则资船,水则资车” - 范蠡

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27-04-2012, 05:53 PM, (This post was last modified: 27-04-2012, 05:53 PM by Drizzt.)
Post: #24
RE: M1 (MobileOne Limited)
do you place any premium to word of mouth?

my republick and viewquest are attacking where the big 3 are weakest, speed, static ip and customer service.
Dividend Investing and More @ InvestmentMoats.com

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27-04-2012, 08:42 PM, (This post was last modified: 28-04-2012, 01:51 PM by CityFarmer.)
Post: #25
RE: M1 (MobileOne Limited)
(27-04-2012, 05:53 PM)Drizzt Wrote: do you place any premium to word of mouth?

my republick and viewquest are attacking where the big 3 are weakest, speed, static ip and customer service.

I assume you are refering to the following article. I post it here for the benefit of our forumer. I am not sure on Starhub and Singtel. But it is not quite true for M1, after i had confirmed with M1 management. Well, the judge is the end-user i.e. customer. They have the final verdict.

---
TELECOM & INTERNET | Krisana Gallezo, Singapore
Published: 16 Feb 12

Singapore telco giants get competition with MyRepublic
Founders of MyRepublic blurted out things that the current 3 Telcos allegedly won’t tell you about their fibre broadband services.

In an email to Singapore Business Review, the founders of MyRepublic who are ex senior telco directors claimed that while Singtel, Starhub and M1 offer Next Generation Broadband Network (NBN), they do not promote it and do not offer it at its full potential.

CEO & co-founder of MyRepublic Malcolm Rodrigues said that the principle goal of the 3 Telcos does not lie in offering customers the best of NBN. This mainly stems, he said from their legacies of other types of broadband services they have to promote and sell.

“There is a documented case where StarHub actually encouraged a customer to stick to their current cable broadband instead of switching to fibre. There are many such references in online forums, as the Internet-using public shares their experiences in trying to get NBN service,” he adds.

Mr. Rodrigues noted that the 3 telcos apply traditional engineering models to the NGN which cause them to have very high contention ratios - number of customers that share one pipe, cap international capacity, and throttle customer traffic at peak hours from 9pm to 2am.

MyRepublic, meanwhile he said has no legacies they need to protect and is only interested in working with customers to give them the best NBN experience.

Mr Rodrigues was a former Vice President of StarHub International & Wholesale. He founded MyRepublic with KC Lai who was also a former StarHub’s Senior VP of Consumer Sales for 10 years and Greg Mittman who was tasked to lead Alcatel-Lucent’s NBN team. Find out more about them at http://sbr.com.sg/telecom-internet/news/...y-republic

My Republic said that it has what it takes to be a credible alternative.

“Unlike the 3 incumbent telcos, MyRepublic was purpose-built for the Next Gen NBN. Created especially to leverage off the Next Gen NBN, MyRepublic believes a user-centric approach that puts the customer first is the only way to understand the game-changing opportunities of the NBN.

The MyRepublic team has many former employees from the NBN Companies. They know how to take advantage of the NBN different Quality of Service (QoS) options to customise the internet experience according to what people want,” said Mr. Rodrigues.

Is a broadband service allowing you not to lock yourself into a contract sounds appealing to you?

MyRepublic is today, February 16, launching of what it claims as a first-of-its kind offer where customers need to lock yourself into a two-year contract for a pure broadband service.

“We believe passionately in the quality of our network experience and the personalized service we offer. To back up this belief with a promise, and to force us to win our customers’ hearts and loyalty every day, we are pleased to announce today that we are making the MyRepublic Pure Fibre Broadband service available without a contract. There is no need to lock yourself into a 2 year contract. If we don’t meet up to our service promise, you are free to leave. It is this relationship to ensure that we deliver. It is giving power back to the consumer,” said Mr Rodrigues.
“夏则资皮,冬则资纱,旱则资船,水则资车” - 范蠡

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05-05-2012, 06:48 PM,
Post: #26
RE: M1 (MobileOne Limited)
I have a pleasant surprise to see M1 advertisement in ST today, a promotion of Gaming package over Fiber broadband, the GamePRO 100 Mbps

The detail of the promotion is also available over M1 website

http://www.m1.com.sg/promo/bband.html

With S$61/month, plus "Free Home Fixed Voice Service" (bundled service is a norm nowaday), with a free "Razer Mamba Gaming Mouse worth 209". Offered Features are
- Lag-free gaming for an epic win
- dedicated bandwidth for blazing speeds
- Power up with the highest upload speeds

I am not a gamer, but it is a direct competition with MyRepublic's main biz. Good luck to MyRepublic and Good work to M1 Smile
“夏则资皮,冬则资纱,旱则资船,水则资车” - 范蠡

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09-05-2012, 09:41 AM, (This post was last modified: 09-05-2012, 09:47 AM by CityFarmer.)
Post: #27
RE: M1 (MobileOne Limited)
OpenNet, SingTel headed for arbitration

http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews...96848.html

The dispute will delay the Fiber network deployment, which will affect M1 more than the Singtel and Starhub. Sad

The Singtel response to the dispute below

http://info.sgx.com/webcorannc.nsf/Annou...endocument
“夏则资皮,冬则资纱,旱则资船,水则资车” - 范蠡

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09-05-2012, 01:58 PM,
Post: #28
RE: M1 (MobileOne Limited)
More reporting news from TODAY

OpenNet points fingers at ISPs

http://www.todayonline.com/Hotnews/EDC12...rs-at-ISPs
“夏则资皮,冬则资纱,旱则资船,水则资车” - 范蠡

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11-05-2012, 11:52 AM, (This post was last modified: 17-05-2012, 05:39 PM by CityFarmer.)
Post: #29
RE: M1 (MobileOne Limited)
(24-04-2012, 03:55 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: The NetCo, OpenNet paid-up capital is 20 Mils, base on Singtel contribution of 6 Mils for 30% share. Base on the fibre rollout revenue generated by Singtel as OpenNet's contractor, the up-to-date (till Dec 2011) rollout expenses of OpenNet amounted to 582 Mils for 85% coverage.

The next 15% is the toughest one, which logically will incur more expense. Even with 750 Mils of Gov Grant, will OpenNet blow the budget and ask for more capital from its shareholders?

Furthermore will OpenNet and IDA end-up like LTA and SMRT, engage in a fight if OpenNet not able to fulfill the dateline on time?

Base on Singtel latest FR, the Fiber rollout expenses up to end Mar 2012 is 627 Mils (additional 45 Mils in Q4FY2012), for coverage of 90%. An increasing expense per %pts of coverage. First 3 month of 2012, it is 9 Mils per %pts, compare with an average 7 Mils per %pts previously. It is logical to expect even higher expense with the last 10% coverage

OpenNet already started its defensive move with the only contractor i.e. Singtel. Does it mean OpenNet will miss the target by end of this year? I am observing....
“夏则资皮,冬则资纱,旱则资船,水则资车” - 范蠡

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17-05-2012, 05:48 PM,
Post: #30
RE: M1 (MobileOne Limited)
(19-04-2012, 02:40 PM)CityFarmer Wrote:
(09-04-2012, 04:54 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: The update of IDA on number of user for fibre network, ~9k increment on Jan 2012

http://www.ida.gov.sg/Publications/20120402113400.aspx

Another update of IDA on Feb 2012 on the same link. ~9k increment on Feb 2012 for fiber user

Let take a close look and consider Oct 2011 - Feb 2012

DSL + Cable user down by ~46K
Fiber user up by ~50K

So the trend is consistent, but still slower than my forecast of 11k/month. It seem OpenNet efficiency getting worse rather than improving Sad

New update of IDA for Mar 2012 on the same link.

Fiber users up by 14K in Mar 2012 alone. An average of 11K for 3 months of Jan 2012 - Mar 2012.

Let's consider Jan 2012 - Mar 2012

DSL + Cable users down by ~30K
Fiber users up by ~34K
“夏则资皮,冬则资纱,旱则资船,水则资车” - 范蠡

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