Home prices may fall 30%, say analysts

[aspeed]

I see your point now. However a foreigner who decides to put money in here for a 1M property should have know it is still cheaper than in their home country. So now he have to pay 1.1M, hmm not cheap compared to home country now, so wont buy. Would rather invest in home country's properties. If drop to 0.9M, ahhh, though he pay more than PR or locals, but will become cheaper (back to original 1M) than his home country. So i guess he wont mind buying. So saying prices will drop 30% is crazy.

The key issue is foreigner is buying at a much higher markup from the market price. His property has to appreciate at least 20% for him to smell any capital gain.

But I do agree that a 30% drop is over-rated. It may even drop only slightly as many singaporeans have been waiting on sideline for a long long time.

[Max12345678]

I think when a new property measure comes out, most buyers will have a wait and see sentiment, and when they see the property price dropping, they will rather wait longer until the price is stabilized, unless the buyers are very eager to own a house instead of for investment purpose. This may cause the property price to drop more than 10%?

[kichialo]

A 10% stamp duty was slap on foreigner. Before that, property prices were still moving up although at a slower rate. I wonder why would this new measure cause prices to drop > 10%? If one had the intention to buy a property at currrent price, with the new measure, one will still buy once price drop by 10% only right? So saying prices will drop 30% just because of this new rule, imo is crazy.

Because when prices move, in either direction, it creates a self fulfilling loop. If prices drop, buyers will wait, and then wait further, so it keeps dropping.

[Musicwhiz]

The interesting thing about how prices move is that it becomes a self-fulfilling vicious cycle. Much of it would be sentiment-driven and thus unpredictable, but it essentially involves fear and trepidation that prices will fall, and buyers will become increasingly "greedy" to get better prices, while sellers get increasingly fearful about not being able to book a profit.

When there is even a hint of prices "crashing" (say 10%), it would reinforce this loop and the result may be a crash. The timing is not predictable, but the sequence of events is always the same!

[Big Toe]

If it goes up, it'll stay up for a while.
When it goes down, it'll come down and stay down for a very long time.

Trying to predict the impact is pointless.
If it comes down hard (with a combination of unfortunate negative events), 30% is nothing.
Seriously, what makes people so confident of Singapore residential prices?
With plenty of new pte residential properties in the pipeline and the on going Govt Land Sale,
how much more appreciation can there be? It is 1300psf at Bedok now. To get a sense of how high prices are now...do turn back the clock...6 years ago.

Kovan Melody in Upper Serangoon and Varsity Park in the West Coast, are going for between $440 psf and $520 psf.
Soho@Central, near Clarke Quay MRT station, start at $1,050 psf.
The Sail@Marina Bay starts at around $900 per sq ft.

It's more about common sense than fear or greed.



.

[Stocker]

Believe those who paid S$1300 psf for Bedok is holding the last baton for this present circle.

[yeokiwi]

Believe those who paid S$1300 psf for Bedok is holding the last baton for this present circle.

Let see how capitaland unloads the rest of units.
Total units = 583.
Unit sold according to press = 350
Unit unsold = 233.

They have not reached breakeven point yet.
The land was purchased at $789 million.

[Stocker]

Believe those who paid S$1300 psf for Bedok is holding the last baton for this present circle.

Let see how capitaland unloads the rest of units.
Total units = 583.
Unit sold according to press = 350
Unit unsold = 233.

They have not reached breakeven point yet.
The land was purchased at $789 million.

Has Capitland sold their units in the former ferrer court project, this one is the big project.

[ngcheeki]

Here is the info for D'Leedon (ex-Farrer Court)


Total Units:1715
Unit Launched: 800
Unit Sold to Date Oct 11: 451
Unit Launch but not sold: 349

So percentage of sold: 26.3%

[ray]

hi everyone, this is my first post.
personally i think that by implementing a 10% on foreigners, it prevents them from driving up the prices through speculation (protecting singaporeans like pap promised, lol). although cooling measures have already been put it place, it only increases the time horizon of the investment. many foreigners are willing to wait and buy multiple properties, yielding a rental return in the process.
with the additional stamp duty, it makes it much less profitable to speculate, 13% on each side of the transaction.
this will, hopefully for me as i am still a student, push prices down.
10% or 30% i doubt anyone can make an accurate prediction. the market will do whatever it wants.
i wonder what will happen to investors/ specualtors who bought before all these policies. assuming 40% down for a second property, are many singaporeans leveraged too thinly, expecting huge returns like 2010 only to meet a declining market? will this lead to severe drop in property prices over the next few years?