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Avi-Tech reached a new high of S$0.123 recently,which is a fair value considering the recent revaluation by Mr Market after it managed to turn its loss around upon disposal of the US subsidiaries.
For those who are still holding it,it depends on whether you feel their turnaround is just at the beginning stage with more upside in profits(semiconductor businesses) in the future.
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I've always faced a dilemma with these turnaround companies that were once trading at less than liquidation value. Some like MFG have gone up in price despite reaching book value, while others have seen their share prices retreat upon reaching book value (PNE Industries).
Do we sell when the turnaround seems to be gaining momentum? That's the question I had for a long time. I think that momentum is a very real force.
In the end, I decided to go back to my core thesis. I bought the company because I thought it was cheap based on asset value, and not because of its earning power (which is unproven at this point). So when a company hits what I think is "fair value" based on assets, I will sell it.
In the end, when gauging the earnings power of a company, I prefer to look for one which has already demonstrated that it has the ability to generate good returns on capital, as opposed to one which has little or no track record in doing so. After all, as a minority shareholder, how much do I really know about the future prospects of a turnaround business?
Hope this helps.
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avi tech has not really experienced a turnaround per se.
Their core Burn in boards business has been a steady cash generative business for quite some time already. losses over past few years were just due to failed venture into non core business that drag on the profitable core business.
So they return to profitability and looks like a turnaround, but really the core business did not go down in the first place unlike other turnarounds where core business was not doing well and company gets turnaround by cutting costs and streamlining and getting more sales.
for PNE Indus, the last run up was not due to business improving or growing a lot but rather a one off gain from sale of most of malaysian subsidiary and concurrent possible buy in of a major shareholder at a premium price. Would consider that run up having a speculative component, which of course could not be sustained after the buyer went away.
historically Avitech has had a good core business and steady div. payout and there is no reason it wont continue making more money so long as its core business sector remains good.
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Interesting, Mr. Lim Eng Hong purchased 500,000 shares at $0.115 on 7 July, much higher than his previous purchases. I am guessing that there will be some goodies coming in 4Q.
There is also an article on Avi-Tech in the latest issue of The Edge and it all sounded very positive.
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17-08-2015, 12:42 PM
(This post was last modified: 17-08-2015, 01:32 PM by BlueKelah.)
farnee leh, queue 90 lots @ 0.092 behind 2.3lots today no one bite. then queue 100 lot @0.093 instantly someone else put buy at 0.094 11lot. then i cancel 100 lot, buy queue becomes 0.092 with 11 lots. first time happen like that, SGX computer sot liao ah.... WTF, small share like this also the algo computer wanna manipulate, sianz....
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Haha blue, i think someone scared you snatch his queue...last Friday some desperado was selling today all quiet...waiting for result and hopefully dividend...