Dairy Farm

[a74henry]

for those interested, i did a what if you bought it then spreadsheet on dairy farm if u purchase it in 2001. ur yield then is 8%, your yield in 2012 is 29%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?...Smc#gid=35

Buying at the right time certainly gives a bonus return. Buy and hold strategy did not fare too badly at 8% p.a either.

(not vested)

[Nick]

Shop n Save supermarket outlets to be converted to Giant stores

Published on Apr 01, 2013
11:00 AM

Shop n Save stores around Singapore will be re-branded into Giant stores, with effect from Monday announced Dairy Farm Singapore, which runs these supermarket chains in Singapore.

This re-branding exercise is part of company's plans to create better brand focus, and maximise efficiency and sustainability said Dairy Farm in a statement.

All 57 Shop n Save stores will be converted to Giant stores, with the exception of the store at West Mall which will be converted into a Cold Storage store, which is a brand also under the Dairy Farm group.

To mark this occasion, Giant is offering a 10 per cent discount off all house brand products for the month of April.

http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking-new...s-20130401 [Article]

[snowcap]

Dairy Farm was a big risk I took in 2003. When the price was about $2, people were looking at the historical prices and said "in the last 1-2 years the price was 0.60 to 0.90".

At the time, I based it purely on scuttlebutt. As a new investor, I didn't know how to read financial statements, but I knew that the Shop n Save outlets were always crowded. Giant likewise. And many of my friends' wives worship at the IKEA temple. Nothing to do, go IKEA. No need to buy furniture, also go IKEA (eat meatballs, send kids to Smaland).

So I dived in at $1.80+

Today people are still saying it's expensive. I know the PE is like 20+ to almost 30, but DF have proven their ability to grow both by acquisition and organically. They are able to execute in multiple markets. They have segmentised the high end (Cold Storage) from the low end (Giant, SnS).

I don't think that the recent leadership change should affect DF adversely (still in the Keswick family), but remains to be seen.

<vested>

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btw, the Sg IKEA is not under Dairy Farm. DF owns the Hongkong/Taiwan IKEAs.

Another thing I like is DF's presence in the SEA and East Asia markets, which are relatively unaffected by the financial gloom in Europe. Indonesia was having remarkable growth throughout the last few years.

The only thing I don't really like is the price right now, but picked up a bit on the dip to USD11.80 (about 15% down from the high of ~13.80)

:*) I was wondering if the rebranding of SnS into Giant was an April Fools joke...

[CityFarmer]

Dairy Farm was a big risk I took in 2003. When the price was about $2, people were looking at the historical prices and said "in the last 1-2 years the price was 0.60 to 0.90".

At the time, I based it purely on scuttlebutt. As a new investor, I didn't know how to read financial statements, but I knew that the Shop n Save outlets were always crowded. Giant likewise. And many of my friends' wives worship at the IKEA temple. Nothing to do, go IKEA. No need to buy furniture, also go IKEA (eat meatballs, send kids to Smaland).

So I dived in at $1.80+

Today people are still saying it's expensive. I know the PE is like 20+ to almost 30, but DF have proven their ability to grow both by acquisition and organically. They are able to execute in multiple markets. They have segmentised the high end (Cold Storage) from the low end (Giant, SnS).

I don't think that the recent leadership change should affect DF adversely (still in the Keswick family), but remains to be seen.

<vested>

Congrat... it is more than 6-bagger base on today price of 11.85, within 10 years.

Yes, so far it seems DF never fails its shareholders. Closely monitoring and trying to convince myself...

[snowcap]

Pls do your own due diligence.

I'm trying not to fall in love with this stock, but it's like saying after getting married, don't fall in love with your wife... Ha ha ha!! It has been good to me through good times and bad, in sickness (08 GFC) and in health (many-bagger).

However I think because I sometimes trade in and out, I may have eroded my 6-bagger.

I tell myself "Better to pay a fair price for an great business than a great price for a fair business" and that's how I convince myself to accumulate. In fact I've just added on at 11.80 in the recent dip. Partly because I've got capital undeployable elsewhere (property cooling measures), and the other stocks in my screen appear overpriced. At least DF is overpriced but behind the high price is a damn solid business.

I may be delusional.

This post is for sharing and not an encouragement to buy. I disclaim any liability for your results.

[edit] come to think of it, another thing some people may not like is that DF gives small dividends (usually <2% yield). However, it it uses retained earnings to generate better returns (ROE) then I don't mind. After all, this is not an income stock. I have enough REITS and income stocks like SPH for that.

[shanrui_91]

Yes, so far it seems DF never fail its shareholders. Closely monitoring and trying to convince myself...

Looking beyond DF, it seemed like the whole Jardine group and various listed subsidiaries have rewarded shareholders very well if you have held on to their shares for the past 10 years

[Nick]

Someone struck lottery and got it for US$0.80 today !

[snowcap]

Yes, the whole Jardine group has generally been good, but the entry price for one lot is prohibitive for many retail folks. I've been eyeing them also. However, the premise for entry in DF is missing, ie. hard to do scuttlebutt for say, JSH or JMH because of their complicated holding structure.

And importantly, what is the individual retail investor's (like me) "circle of competence". For example, I buy groceries every week, usually 2-3 times a week, so I am familiar with Giant, SnS and Cold Storage. I don't buy cars (Jardine C&C) every week, maybe once in 10 years, but I have some familiarity with the car market (much less than the grocery market).

Than again I also own Osim shares even though I have never bought a massage chair. :-D

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Someone struck lottery and got it for US$0.80 today !

Yah man!! I got the automated sms from my brokerage but was too slow!

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My experience with Dairy Farm over the last 9 years is that there are buying opportunities. Because it is rather illiquid, the price can spike up or plunge down by 5-10% in one or two days. These are excellent buying opportunities or profit taking moments. I always remain vested, and simply add or slice off the peripheral to exploit the Mr market's craziness. If you look at the candlestick chart (horror, yes I confess to using charts in a value investing forum!!) there are such days. I set a trigger alert and just go about the rest of my life. Then when I get an SMS, it's time to go in!

This is not an advise to do anything. Please do your own due diligence. I make mistakes as well. I was waiting at $10.50 for the last 6 months. Waiting for it to drop to $10. Well... I can be patient, I just remember "Doing nothing strikes us as intelligent behaviour"

Today drop to $0.80 for one lot, $3 for one lot, $5 for one lot, $7 for one lot.

[CityFarmer]

Today drop to $0.80 for one lot, $3 for one lot, $5 for one lot, $7 for one lot.

To be precise, with lot size of 900 shares

$0.8, $3, $5 of 1 lots each (1 trade each)
$7 of 3 lots (3 trades)

It doesn't look like fat finger sales? or kid's mischievous move on parents account?

Anyway, congrats for those got it.

[Nick]

Today drop to $0.80 for one lot, $3 for one lot, $5 for one lot, $7 for one lot.

To be precise, with lot size of 900 shares

$0.8, $3, $5 of 1 lots each (1 trade each)
$7 of 3 lots (3 trades)

It doesn't look like fat finger sales? or kid's mischievous move on parents account?

Anyway, congrats for those got it.

It could be fat finger first which triggered some auto sales ie cut loss limits ?