Apple Inc.

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Hi Wildreamz,

Please refrain from posting a chart and one liners explanation. For your previous two posts, appreciate if further elaboration can be done.

Thanks
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I see, no problem. Though I think the data speaks most loudly for itself; and my commentary may not serve it justice.

This is a reflection of 10 years of leadership under Tim Cook that I came across in Twitter. 

While it is interesting to see many periods of >20% "dips" where you can potentially buy in at a discount; perhaps the greatest takeaway for me that great companies (compounders) under great leadership can almost be held "forever" (ala Buffett). 

Even though laws of large number will eventually come into play, great stewardship of great businesses can continue to deliver significant market-beating shareholder returns (through capital returns like share buybacks and dividends; as well as EPS growth), without the need of shareholders consistent trading in and out of position.

Reasons I can think of (for the case of Apple): 
* the ability to launch new products quickly and effectively at minimal marginal marketing costs; to their existing user base (Airpods revenue matching the likes of Adobe and Nvidia in 2020: https://www.hardwaretimes.com/apple-airp...s-revenue/)
* the ability to raise price every year in excess of inflation (in the high-end; while their mid-range and low-end product actually increase in price slower than inflation); ala See's Candy
* the ability to sell high margin software and services to their existing userbase; again at minimal marginal marketing costs

In my view, these can all be considered "operating leverage" as well (a privilege for having a great brand, AND remaining innovative).

Peace.

PS: However, moving forward; in the near term, I do not expect revenue (not sure about EPS) to continue growing at the same rate, as I think recent 30-50%+ growth is greatly boosted by category-defining new product launch (M1 Macbooks) as well as Covid tailwinds (many people buying/upgrading hardware to work-from-home).
“If you buy a business just because it’s undervalued, then you have to worry about selling it when it reaches its intrinsic value. That’s hard. But if you can buy a few great companies, then you can sit on your ass. That’s a good thing.” - Charlie Munger
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Apple expected to unveil new Macs with more powerful chips

By Stephen Nellis
October 18, 2021 5:28 PM +07

Oct 18 (Reuters) - Analysts expect Apple Inc (AAPL.O) to unveil new Mac laptop computers with more powerful processor chips at an event that will be streamed later Monday.

Bloomberg has previously reported that Apple plans to release two new MacBook Pro models with 14-inch and 16-inch screens. The Cupertino, California-based company introduced some new laptop models last year that for the first time used its "Apple Silicon" chips, which it said would be phased into the company's desktop and laptop lineup over the course of two years.

Before Monday, Apple's most powerful laptops still relied on chips from Intel Corp (INTC.O). The company has already placed a first generation in-house-designed M1 chip into some MacBooks as well as its Mac Mini and iMac desktop machines, but the new larger MacBook Pro models are expected to feature a second, more powerful generation of the company's chip.

The new chip, along with a general rise in laptop sales as employees and students stocked up on tech hardware to work and learn from home, prompted a boom in Mac sales during the pandemic. Revenue rose 11% to $28.6 billion in Apple's fiscal 2020, even as iPhone revenue declined 3%.

More details in https://www.reuters.com/technology/apple...021-10-18/
Specuvestor: Asset - Business - Structure.
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I forgot to post here in VB but I really do think Apple's M1 chip was watershed and now followed by M1 Pro and Max, from a 5 years timeline point of view

Architecturally Mac is an efficient but not power hungry system per se as Jobs was famous for his obsession of "fanless" and Macs uses customised low powered intel and GPUs.

And this theme now sits nicely with battery life and with low powered mobile ARM architecture with SoC to integrate GPU and memory within internal bus, and render northbridge or external graphics bus redundant. And it seems M1 Max can compete with the high end GPU, presumably natively not through Rosetta.

It is watershed cause if this model ports to PC, there is little differentiation for mother board makers just like graphics daughter boards. And Nvidia better be able to team up with ARM while AMD probably have the pieces to do their own SoC solution.

Microsoft actually have a commercial ARM based Surface and if they support ARM in future instead of just Wintel it will be another watershed. But of course they have to be careful not to end up like Dell abandoning Intel exclusivity.

NB I trust VB are not "fan-based" but just for disclosure I'm not Apple fan but a PC assembly hobbyist for past 30 years

(18-10-2021, 06:37 PM)cyclone Wrote: Apple expected to unveil new Macs with more powerful chips

By Stephen Nellis
October 18, 2021 5:28 PM +07

Oct 18 (Reuters) - Analysts expect Apple Inc (AAPL.O) to unveil new Mac laptop computers with more powerful processor chips at an event that will be streamed later Monday.

Bloomberg has previously reported that Apple plans to release two new MacBook Pro models with 14-inch and 16-inch screens. The Cupertino, California-based company introduced some new laptop models last year that for the first time used its "Apple Silicon" chips, which it said would be phased into the company's desktop and laptop lineup over the course of two years.

Before Monday, Apple's most powerful laptops still relied on chips from Intel Corp (INTC.O). The company has already placed a first generation in-house-designed M1 chip into some MacBooks as well as its Mac Mini and iMac desktop machines, but the new larger MacBook Pro models are expected to feature a second, more powerful generation of the company's chip.

The new chip, along with a general rise in laptop sales as employees and students stocked up on tech hardware to work and learn from home, prompted a boom in Mac sales during the pandemic. Revenue rose 11% to $28.6 billion in Apple's fiscal 2020, even as iPhone revenue declined 3%.

More details in https://www.reuters.com/technology/apple...021-10-18/
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward

Think Asset-Business-Structure (ABS)
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More specifically, it's a watershed moment for Intel. Because the ARM-based Unified Memory Architecture is probably quite difficult for Intel to pull-off on short order: https://www.macobserver.com/analysis/und...hitecture/ And compute-wise, the ARM SoC completely blows Intel out of the water (70% more compute than the i7-11800H while 70% less power hungry: https://www.techspot.com/news/91809-appl...erful.html), while the highest end mobile GPU (GTX 3080) is still slightly better than the M1 Max (though consuming way more power).

Good thing for Nvidia and AMD that it will take some moment (maybe a year or 2) for Apple to expand their portfolio to compete with high-end discreet graphics in Desktops, and for developers to port high-end gaming onto the Mac platform (the main reason left for many consumers to choose Windows devices over Mac).

PS: Although Microsoft have an ARM-based Surface, it's designed by Qualcomm and is leagues behind M1 (or Intel for that matter; https://www.cpu-monkey.com/en/compare_cp...le_m1-1804) in terms of performance. Everyone is going to play catchup now. Apple is not standing still either (they probably have 5-10 years product roadmap planned out).
“If you buy a business just because it’s undervalued, then you have to worry about selling it when it reaches its intrinsic value. That’s hard. But if you can buy a few great companies, then you can sit on your ass. That’s a good thing.” - Charlie Munger
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I reckon SoC vs PCB/motherboard technology is the equivalent of comparing memory storage using magnetic hard disks vs solid state drives?
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PCB will always exist cause human fingers can't manipulate 5nm Big Grin That's basically the reason for wirebonding the IC to a larger substrate

But that means the value of PCB and PCB design will reduce. Now installing SSD is like installing DRAM (which might no longer be an option if it is being SoC like M1 class of chips).

But some things will always remain analog that technology cannot change the delivery like power, fingers and vaccines Big Grin
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward

Think Asset-Business-Structure (ABS)
Reply
Apple will sell parts so you can fix your iPhone or Mac in an apparent big win for right-to-repair advocates
* Apple will start letting consumers complete some of their technology repairs at home, the iPhone maker said Wednesday.
* Through Self Service Repair, customers can ask for access to Apple parts and tools, starting early next year in the U.S.
* The move appears to be a big win for “right-to-repair” advocates.

Jessica Bursztynsky
PUBLISHED WED, NOV 17 20219:31 AM ESTUPDATED WED, NOV 17 202111:01 AM EST

Apple announced a new self-service repair program on Wednesday that will let customers buy parts to fix their own iPhones or Macs. The program will first allow iPhone owners to replace their screen, battery or camera, with more parts coming later.

The move appears to be a big win for “right-to-repair” advocates and is an about-face for Apple. Repair shops and lobbyists who support repair reform have called on lawmakers to implement a variety of rules that would allow for increased access to manuals and official parts. But Apple has lobbied against allowing customers to fix their own products over the years, specifically citing concerns with safety or performance issues from third-party parts. It also sells a subscription AppleCare+ service for its products that offers consumers repairs at a lower cost than non-subscribers.

The service will be available for the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 in the U.S. Later, the company will sell parts so consumers can fix their Macs that run on the Apple M1 chip.

Customers can buy parts through Apple’s self-service repair online store and orders will include a repair manual. Users who return their used parts later for recycling can receive a credit toward their purchase.

The Biden administration and the Federal Trade Commission have signaled a focus on right to repair, which might have forced Apple to act down this road. In his executive order on competition, the president directed the FTC to consider rules preventing “unfair anticompetitive restrictions on third-party repair or self-repair of items.” The FTC in July unanimously voted to ramp up repair restriction enforcement.

More details in https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/17/apple-se...r-mac.html
Specuvestor: Asset - Business - Structure.
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