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(26-11-2015, 08:05 AM)greengiraffe Wrote: Playing the potential sale of NOL must be an extremely careful act as the industry is undergoing a long uncertain winter… NOL last reported book value of US$0.97… question is how much more write off can a suitor factor in?
Maersk Line idling one of its largest vessels
World's top shipping container firm expects supply-demand imbalance to rock industry
Jacqueline Woo
The world's No. 1 container shipping firm has confirmed market talk that it has temporarily idled one of its largest vessels - yet another sign that the industry is in dire straits.
Maersk Line's "Morten Maersk" Triple E mega-ship - among the largest globally with a capacity of 18,000 standard containers - plys the Asia to North Europe route, calling at Singapore along the way.
The ship has been idle in the East China Sea off Shanghai since mid- October, owing to the Chinese Golden Week holiday, said the Copenhagen-based company. But it is expected to resume service in Busan, South Korea, next month.
Chief operating officer Soren Toft told a briefing yesterday that Maersk Line expects its deployed capacity to remain "more or less flat" through next year, amid tepid market conditions.
He noted the company's average freight rates have fallen 1.9 per cent each year since 2004, and said this "slow erosion" in rates will likely continue due to the severe imbalance in global supply and demand. "We're taking the starting point that there will still be tough competition," he said.
Mr Toft acknowledged the industry is "in need of consolidation - to the extent that if it makes sense for us to participate, we will do so".
But he declined to comment on whether AP Moeller-Maersk, Maersk Line's parent company, has indeed dropped out of talks with Singapore's Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) over a potential acquisition.
Book Value =
US$0.97?
Yes Kiasi Liu!
Hesitated entry of 5 lots at $1.0 to average out vested 5 lots.
Don't think want to go in higher then $1.0.
What will happens when finally no buyer?
Then may buy at 52 WK LOW or lower or let it be?
We all know "Too Much Seek" will sell if the price(value) is "correct" now or into the future.
WB:-
1) Rule # 1, do not lose money.
2) Rule # 2, refer to # 1.
3) Not until you can manage your emotions, you can manage your money.
Truism of Investments.
A) Buying a security is buying RISK not Return
B) You can control RISK (to a certain level, hopefully only.) But definitely not the outcome of the Return.
NB:-
My signature is meant for psychoing myself. No offence to anyone. i am trying not to lose money unnecessary anymore.
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Disclaimer: Please feel free to correct any error in my post. I am not liable for anything. Do your own research and analysis. I do NOT give buy or sell calls and stock tips. Buy and sell at your risk. I am not a qualified financial adviser so I do not give any advice. The postings reflects my own personal thoughts which may or may not be accurate.
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CMA CGM offering $1.30 per share. I dunno, Temasek might be keen to offload it but I think minority shareholders might not be happy about it.
You can count on the greed of man for the next recession to happen.
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How much does Temasek lose in NOL if they exit at $1.30?
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07-12-2015, 06:17 PM
(This post was last modified: 07-12-2015, 06:18 PM by LionFlyer.)
Back in 2004, Temasek bought in @ S$2.80. I think the stake then was 50ish%. Back of the envelope calculation with an average price of $1.8 suggest a loss of around $300 million based on the 67% stake. I am not sure what is there average price though, so I am just being conservative. If the average price is anything near S$2, it is around S$500 million.
More like cut loss and moving on.
(Not vested)
You can count on the greed of man for the next recession to happen.
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07-12-2015, 07:40 PM
(This post was last modified: 07-12-2015, 07:49 PM by Vseeker.)
Temasek's net cost might be around only $1.111 pershr (ignoring holding costs)
Below the various DIVs + Distributions by NOL since Aug 2004
XD Date / Amt Paid / Cumulative Payouts
15-Apr-11 $0.0460 $0.0460
17-Jun-09 :: 3-for-4 RTs Iss @$1.30 each
...so assuming Temasek tookup its full entitlement (No excess)
=> post-RTsIss in 2009, it become $1.157 pshr and this further reduces to $1.111 after the Apr2011's 4.6c div payout
XD Date / Amt Paid / Cumulative Payouts
=======
17-Apr-09 $0.0400 $0.0400
19-Aug-08 $0.0400 $0.0800
18-Apr-08 $0.1000 $0.1800
22-Aug-07 $0.0400 $0.2200
20-Apr-07 $0.0400 $0.2600
25-Aug-06 $0.0400 $0.3000
25-Jan-06 $0.3000 $0.6000
25-Jan-06 $0.6200 $1.2200
25-Aug-05 $0.0800 $1.3000
28-Apr-05 $0.1469 $1.4469
28-Apr-05 $0.2169 $1.6638
10-Aug-04 $0.0875 $1.7513
=========================
10Aug2004-17Apr2009's total payout=$1.7513 ..so by Apr2009 =} Temasek residual costs is closer to $1.05 pshr asat Apr2009 (ignoring holding costs)
=========================
03-Aug-2004 : TakeOver Offer @$2.80 pershr
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Actually, I am quite surprised Temeask agreed to sell (according to CNA)
As part of the ocean 3 alliance, their port of calls is port Klang and the port at Johore. CMA CMG has said they will move regional HQ to Singapore. My guess is that for Temeask to agree to sell, ocean 3 might divert some volume to Singapore. But given the longer terms of things ... It seem like a lesser evil with no alternative.
NOL role in Singapore maritime hub security must have been small
life goes in cycles, predictable yet uncontrollable; just like the markets, but markets give you a second chance
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08-12-2015, 09:11 AM
(This post was last modified: 08-12-2015, 09:13 AM by cfa.)
Confirmed offer 1.30 but why there are sellers at 1.23 ????????
“risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.”
I don’t look to jump over 7-foot bars: I look around for 1-foot bars that I can step over.
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(08-12-2015, 09:11 AM)cfa Wrote: Confirmed offer 1.30 but why there are sellers at 1.23 ????????
The offer is pre-conditional, thus the difference, isn't it?
(not vested)
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