Would Resale HDB prices ever drop?

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#1
Would Resale HDB prices ever drop?

Would like to tap on the wisdom and experience of valuebuddies - would Resale HDB prices ever drop?

I am thinking:

  • HDB resale prices have gapped up strongly since 2020.
  • Interest rates are rising now. 
  • If one buys a resale HDB now, would he be entering at the peak?
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#2
hi Choon,

You can refer to the historical RPI found at HDB.
https://www.hdb.gov.sg/residential/selli...statistics

- There is a chart from 1994 to 2022. Of course the numbers are for averages and mileage varies across room type and town.
- There are 3 noticeable declines - 1997, 2000 and 2013. 1997 and 2000 correspond to AFC97 and dotcom crash and so I reckon it would be safe to assume these were the causes. As for 2013, It was probably Khaw Boon Wan's work after the PAP historic loss of a GRC to the WP.

So based on the historical trend, the answer to your question "would Resale HDB prices ever drop" would be YES.
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#3
(20-09-2022, 08:32 PM)weijian Wrote: So based on the historical trend, the answer to your question "would Resale HDB prices ever drop" would be YES.

A fall in price implies a fall in demand. Does the fall in demand indicate some of these demand is "artificial" instead of a real need of housing?

Therefore, in today's context, are high prices a function of real demand ("person really needs a house to stay") or demand + speculation (investment property)?
You can count on the greed of man for the next recession to happen.
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