NTUC Income shares

[LionFlyer]

The whole episode reflects poorly on the current NE leadership though.

While it is reasonable that the capital reduction or the 2 billion carryover is commercially confidential as part of the deal, the decision of the NE leadership to accept such terms and to give a majority stake is puzzling (to be charitable).

[LionFlyer]

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapor...an-4682446

I am frankly, shocked that the Minister made such statements.

“In fact, the central committee and myself only knew of this on Monday at the ministerial statement,” said Mr Tan, who is also senior minister of state in the Prime Minister's Office.

"And as I'm made aware now, from clarifications with (NTUC Enterprise) and Income, Income as a non-listed public company would have to comply with the legal responsibility of non-disclosure of commercially sensitive information on Allianz's plans post acquisition ... because as a non-listed public company ... Income is subject to the Singapore code of takeover and mergers."

NE is the majority shareholder, not an unrelated external party; if they are not being made aware of such material clauses, what are they doing?

[weijian]

So how can we think of Allianz's offer? Since Income is not listed, I do not think an IFA will be appointed. However, since we have a recent case of OCBC's offer for GEH and an IFA was appointed, maybe we could leverage the IFA's ideas.
From GEH's IFA letter, the IFA (E&Y) believes that a fair value for GEH lies between 0.8-1x EV (embedded value). Income's EV is not available from its AR and Mgt also decline to disclose it from AGM minutes. However, I managed to google a copy of Phillip Capital's valuation report that has a private valuation of Income's EV.
The disclaimer here is that it is calculated based on 2022 numbers but we could argue 2022's EV should be higher than the current, as bond yields (and the yield curve) were more friendly to insurers back in 2022.
Income's embedded value = 2224/0.52 ~ 4.28bil
EV per share (share count taken from latest AR) = 4.28bil/107.2mil = 40sgd
Allianz's offer of 40.58sgd is not too fair from ~1x EV (of FY22 valuation). So do you think it would be "unfair"?

Phillip Capital valuation of Income (pg4 for EV):
https://www.poems.com.sg/downloads/Incom...202024.pdf

Allianz's media statement below can be construed as they would never pay 1x EV if it doesn't come with the privilege to "raid the reserves", even for a change in control.

This is probably a fair result, but would be disappointing for many long time Income minorities.

Allianz withdraws pre-conditional offer for Income Insurance while confirming its long-term commitment to Singapore

The decision to withdraw its offer at this time underscores Allianz’s financial discipline

https://www.allianz.com/en/mediacenter/n...rance.html