Best World

[specuvestor]

Actually I think in the real world it's not so straight forward. Regulatory risk is just one of the business risk that a firm takes. Note I'm saying from a very capitalistic point of view.

Does the management knows what it is doing? Will this risk shut down the whole operation or business? Does the shareholders trust the mgt?

That's why mgt quality and track record is so important. It is good to have clarity from IR or from mgt roadshow / AGM

Falcon Pte bank was shut down in Singapore due to IMDB but how much had it made? How much impact from banks that laundered Russian money? What is the value of reputation and maybe notoriety ie can make things happen regardless?

That's why MAS recently said it s not effective to just fine the banks but decision makers should be liable. I think that's on the right track. We have to see the incentive / disincentive for policy making and not just be too academic about it

[chialc88]

Thank you Boon, Specuvestor, brattzz, YMPL, mslee888, Millionfaith, Squirrel, dreambear1, ftaalee, moneyspinner, etc

Good morning.

The birds still chirping happily and the sun still shining everyday.
Cool air, nice weather and everyone is happy. 


#1 Bestworld is a good company with the right vision and opportunities.
     Moving forward, the stock price is going one way -> Up.
     And it is my sincere wish that Bestworld continue it's business from strength to strength.
     This will benefits many people not just Bestworld.

     宝贝 加油! 用心生活.

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@ specuvestor
1. Does the management knows what it is doing? 
    Yes.

2. Will this risk shut down the whole operation or business? 
    Unlikely. BWL operates in many countries aka beyond China.

3. Does the shareholders trust the mgt?
    So far, so good.

Citing your reference to bank, I think most regulators has no tooth.
Watch this and laugh out loud LOL:

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@ Boon
I don't want to ask but I could not resisted as I noticed that you spending a lot of time in bwl.
As what wb says, (something like this)
he does not need to know a man's weight in order for him to tell he is fat.
he just need to take a look when the man walk into the door,
immediately, he can tell whether he is fat or not.
aka doesn't need to know whether he is 250 pounds, 255 pounds or 260 pounds to conclude that he is a fat man.

make sense?

In any case, I think the questions or our energies should be spend on thinking:
if bwl price is going to be continue going up, why couldn't we speculate and buy some bwl share?
what's the right price to pay given the know risks?

My answer is very clear, what about you?

[Boon]

After refinancing my loan, the back sent me a letter promising reward for client reference. Is this unlawful?

Wha is the relevance of your point?

Lawful or unlawful- it depends on what's the law says.

In SIN the law prohibits importing of chewing gum into the country.

In China the law prohibits downlines relationships/ earning commissions from sales generated from downlines.

[specuvestor]

China is growth engine. Taiwan is tapering. The focus on China is not inconsequential. If the China operation is shut down tomorrow where do you think the share price will be? That will be your guesstimate on China's contribution

I think forumers has already given feedback to mgt. Now it's whether investors trust they will make the right judgement call. And as usual, regulatory issue is a long process, especially China unless you step on someone's vested interest. Nothing may even happen for next 12 months even if regulators are investigating. As usual timing (not technicals) is an issue. Both bulls and bears can be right depending on the time frame.

But understanding your investment is always important first and foremost. Else you won't even know what timing or catalyst you are looking for

[chialc88]

Can I digress?

One day, I got called up by my favourite trading company. 
(erh... yes, I'm not a trader. I'm a valuebuddies, just like you.)

"Did you buy and sell the same shares in the same transaction?"
"Yes, I did."

"Do you known, it's illegal to do that?"
"Yes but I have my reason."

*** skip the details as it's my trade secret ***

I guess my reason must be valid or they just wanted to call me for recording purposes.

Times will tell.

Of course, moral of the stories is illegal or legal seems to be black and white.
However, in practises, there are rooms to manoeuvre.

Back to bwl.
It's clear that currently bwl is engaged in a dangerous move to expand it's China business.
There must be clear boundary to be set.
The wisdom will be from top management such as Dora, Doreen and HBC.

I wish that they have the courage and determination to do the right things for longer term goods.
Do you know that you're my 宝贝? 
加油!

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@ specuvestor
If the China operation is shut down tomorrow where do you think the share price will be? 
I think 50cents. What do you think?

Oh, BTW, I sold out all my bwl shares and currently not vested.
Ok?

[specuvestor]

Yes and i can also cite you public example where trading got the person fired. That's why it's a judgement call. You have to know the circumstances and gravity

Yes we all know you sold out. And indirectly you are also saying vestedness has no bearing to whether you or Boon post the most in this thread. Unlike other forums, I think VB focus more on sense / substance than interest.

I have never stated any of my stock positioning in this forum either.

[ftaalee]

Much has been said about the business practice of the company and it served value to all readers in highlighting the pitfalls of investing in the company. The risk/award ratio is left to one's own judgement. The forum serves as a good platform for exchanging of information and views on a company. There is no right or wrong in expressing one way or another.

[specuvestor]

hmmm Millionfaith did you read this MTI explanation instead of reiterating MLM is illegal in Singapore?

See the part on Multi-Level Marketing and Pyramid Selling (Excluded Schemes and Arrangements) Order. I would think that many legit MLM that are focused on products and services not recruitment, including Best World, is legal

https://www.mti.gov.sg/legislation/Pages...lling.aspx

@investor1, I have invested in BW earlier than you do, and am still holding it.

With some exposure to DS/MLM, my fear is not on exactly what Boon has pointed, because this has been a practice, even in SG, as I pointed out earlier. Squirrel has also showed some articles pertaining to DS license. These are my thoughts:

1. Direct selling business is a risky business. It is difficult to control the agents/distributors who are not direct employees of the company. On one hand, the company wants to keep agents/disty who are able to expand the business, but the company also need to have some accountability how the agents/disty conduct their business as bad reputation will tarnish the brand. However, it is not easy, hence get out of your investment if this risk is not acceptable to you.

2. Besides agents/disty conduct their business shabbily, it is also hard for the company to make sure no one tries to produce “fake” products. For instance, in China, there are people who “fake” Amway protein and pass it on as the real thing. So I wouldn’t be surprise there is fake DR’s Secret one day. And surely, if such news surface, BW might suffer price crash....hence be prepared.

3. Any super agent/disty can "disappear" (I saw many good leaders come and go in a DS/MLM environment), will this impact the sales for BW. Is this a risk, that depends on how you look at it.

4. I do not think BW will train its agent. For a DS/MLM to "impact skill", the newer recruit basically trained and get assisted by their leaders/upline. Therefore as someone involve in a DS/MLM, I see my over-ride commission necessary. By the way, I can't speak for BW marketing plan, but Amway marketing plan is fair. My "sleeping" uplines do not get commission from my revenue, only those "at work" will probably but not necessary get something. I believe BW is along the same line....if is not win-win, the plan will fail eventually.

5. The above are just some risk such company would face. Hence, if you are not prepared, get out please. It takes conviction to feel at peace with your investment. If there is no peace, then maybe reduce risk is a better and healthy choice.

6. However, I would like to highlight that all businesses carry some form of risk but how “real” are these risk. If such model have been practicing in China (based on my Amway exposure plus what BW IR stated), why are such practices allowed? And if there is high probability of BW DS license to be revoked?  

7. Why most of you here focus on China—if is MLM or not? I have stated earlier that Singapore also do not allow MLM, and probably in all the other regions that BW conducted her business may not be permitted. How about BW DS license for example in Taiwan, Singapore and so on get revoke?

8. Even if the system (663) is not the trigger point for license to be revoked, it can be the conduct of any agents/disty, if they are not mentored with leaders with integrity. How BW manage their agents/disty is a bigger concern for me than going through length investigating if the system is legal or not. Let the authority do it, our job as an investor is to evaluate if the risk/reward is acceptable in the worst probably scenario.

9. On the other hand, there are so many MLM companies prosper in Singapore—including insurance and property agencies also practise multi level commission, why is it allowed in Singapore? Singapore is a HIGHLY REGULATED country, why multi level commission scheme is able to conduct here?

10. The legality on DS license should be looked into earlier (for example how it conduct its business in SG), not when the company is entering China market. This is risk from day 1 if one decides to invest in a DS/MLM business.

11. I am not saying the DS license in China is not important, but instead of focusing if the agts/distys doing the right way or not (like I said, such conduct has been there since a long long time), focus on the effectiveness on the products. I heard DR’s Secret is a wonderful series of skin care, and that may form a strong foundation on its sales.

12. Another area I will focus on is the management. Can I trust the management on their leadership, integrity and so on.

13. The PE of Best World, in my view is fair, even if no DS revenue. Its export/retail is doing as fine. My current concern is if the agts/disty over stocked in preparation of DS, what is the "real" demand from China consumers? Another concern is how effective and receptive is DR’s Secret product in China, the sustainability. The success in Taiwan market seems to provide some indication, but still too early to make any confirmation.

14. When the revenue in China grow, then I may be more concern on sustainable, currently, the sales is actually still small in my view.

15. Export/retail license allows products to be sold via a shop (mostly beauty, hair saloons), i.e. B to C. However with a DS license, it enables C-C. If the transition is successful, the growth should be exponential.

This is my view, do your due diligence.

[karlmarx]

Can I digress?

One day, I got called up by my favourite trading company. 
(erh... yes, I'm not a trader. I'm a valuebuddies, just like you.)

"Did you buy and sell the same shares in the same transaction?"
"Yes, I did."

"Do you known, it's illegal to do that?"
"Yes but I have my reason."

*** skip the details as it's my trade secret ***

I guess my reason must be valid or they just wanted to call me for recording purposes.

Times will tell.

How do you buy and sell the same shares in the same transaction? Use one trading account to buy and another trading account to sell? Creating false market?

[Boon]

Every risk and threat raised is real and probable but there is no point to keep dwelling on just the negative factors because every company in this business is doing the same thing and bearing the same risk. For the kind of business they are in, it is not a stock meant for the faint hearted – just look at the recent 20% price correction. In the future there will be even more heart stopping moments with news of product controversy or breaches of rules. That notwithstanding, is it still a worthy company in ascendant? With their experience and market knowledge gained in Taiwan one has to make a judgement whether in China they can navigate the choppy waters and make inroads in a potentially enormous but challenging and perilous environment.
Have been a stake holder since 2005 and I keep my faith.

Much has been said about the business practice of the company and it served value to all readers in highlighting the pitfalls of investing in the company. The risk/award ratio is left to one's own judgement. The forum serves as a good platform for exchanging of information and views on a company. There is no right or wrong in expressing one way or another.

“Every risk and threat raised is real and probable” but…………………………..
 
-      how real and probable?
-      how about risk and threat not being identified and raised yet?
  
Have we managed to identify and raise EVERY risk and threat?
 
Have we got to the BOTTOM of the issues raised to fully understand the nature of the issues and their implications?
 
Despite being repeatedly dwelled on, some forummers still don’t seem to understand the issues………………….
 
Analyzing and dwelling on the issues, especially approaching from different perspectives, may lead to uncovering of more issues…………………
 
“every company in this business is doing the same thing and bearing the same risk.”
 
If every company in this business is doing the unlawful thing  - does BWI has to follow ?
 
Is Amway China doing it? Not that I know of!
 
“With their experience and market knowledge gained in Taiwan one has to make a judgement whether in China they can navigate the choppy waters and make inroads in a potentially enormous but challenging and perilous environment.”
 
Without dwelling more into the issues:
 
How does one make a judgement or a better judgement?
 
“Much has been said about the business practice of the company and it served value to all readers in highlighting the pitfalls of investing in the company. The risk/award ratio is left to one's own judgement. The forum serves as a good platform for exchanging of information and views on a company. There is no right or wrong in expressing one way or another.”
 
Absolutely speaking, in the context of judgement, even if there is no such thing as “right” or “wrong” - relatively speaking, to enable one to make a better judgement (more right than wrong) - one has to keep dwelling to get to the bottom of the issues.
 
Question: Have we reached the bottom?
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