Covid-19

[specuvestor]

Think indication is getting clearer that it’s more infectious but less serious

Hopeful for a better 2022!!


<Bloomberg>
T cells, the body’s weapon against virus-infected cells, were primed enough by vaccination that they defended against omicron in separate studies from Erasmus University in the Netherlands and the University of Cape Town in South Africa.

The findings could help explain why the wave of omicron cases hasn’t so far caused a surge in mortality from South Africa to the U.S. and the U.K. Unlike antibodies, T cells can target the whole of the virus’s spike protein, which remains largely similar even in the highly mutated omicron.

Covid Deaths Fall in U.S. Even as Omicron Spread Continues

The Dutch researchers looked at 60 vaccinated health-care workers and found that while their antibody responses to omicron were lower or nonexistent compared with the beta and delta variants, T cell responses were largely unaltered, “potentially balancing the lack of neutralizing antibodies in preventing or limiting severe Covid-19.”

The study from the University of Cape Town’s Institute of Infectious Disease and Molecular Medicine looked at patients who had recovered from Covid or been vaccinated with shots from Pfizer Inc. and partner BioNTech SE or Johnson & Johnson. They found that 70% to 80% of the T cell responses they assessed held up against omicron.

Recent weeks have brought evidence that the new strain can erode vaccine protection, prompting governments to push for booster shots to raise the level of antibodies that can fight off the variant.

But immune protection has several layers. While antibodies block infection, T cells kill infected cells, preventing the virus from spreading and causing worse disease, Wendy Burgens, one of the University of Cape Town study authors, wrote on her Twitter account Virus Monologues. “They can’t prevent you from getting infected, but they can minimize the damage that comes afterwards,” she said.

T cells are white blood cells that can remember past diseases, kill virus-infected cells and rouse antibodies to marshal defenses. People infected with another coronavirus that was responsible for the SARS outbreak in 2003, for example, were found to still have a T-cell response to the disease 17 years later.

Last year experts were saying more transmissible should be less potent. Turn out Delta was both and there was a third factor: period of incubation and infectiousness. Delta was about 3 days average while the original wuhan was more like 7-14 days hence you can see the policy changes as well

So far Omicron seems even more infectious but milder than Delta. Let's see more data on the period

Flattening the curve not only releases stress on the medical system but also on individual imuunity system by reducing viral load. If you meet 1 person with COVID a day is different from say meeting 5. Hence the exponentiality upwards AS WELL AS downwards.

PS it's actually quite interesting and instructive to read what we posted 18 months ago in this thread. That's how VB is useful for reflection with minimal noise.

Those who know a bit of biology will know that the intention of viruses is to profligate themselves. So over time, they will evolve to milder variants while maintain their infectiousness. The Omicron variant is exhibiting such a behavior now, less deadly but more transmissive.

[specuvestor]

HK vaccination is about 3/4 and China is mainly non mRNA. That's why they have to keep to COVID zero policy

OTOH if SG follows the international script we should peak some time these 2 weeks, which is why it is unlikely that the government will tighten further

(Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong’s current social distancing rules aren’t enough to bring the city’s record-setting Covid wave under control, and nearly 1,000 residents may die by mid-June if there aren’t changes, according to researchers from the University of Hong Kong.
Mitigation measures are needed to cut transmissions by 85% -- a level akin to what Shanghai achieved during its city-wide lockdown in early 2020 -- to get through the outbreak while minimizing deaths, said Gabriel Leung, dean of medicine, and Joseph Wu, who specializes in mathematical and statistical disease modelling at the university. The ultimate number of deaths depends on how long the city sustains the curbs now in place and any changes to them, the researchers said. 
“In the absence of a city-wide lockdown, the fifth wave is unlikely to be containable even with the current most stringent public health and social measures,” they said in a write-up of their findings. Officials should “urgently consider” the feasibility of a full lockdown, they said. 

Hong Kong will record 954 deaths in the omicron wave by mid-June if the current containment measures remain in place, according to their analysis, which was presented to reporters on Thursday. The data hasn’t yet been peer-reviewed or published. 
The deaths toll could surge to 3,000 in a “larger outbreak” or 5,000 in dire circumstances if the rules aren’t maintained, according to two scenarios they detailed using computer modelling. Both involve hospitals coming under significant pressure, and the death toll could rise by another 50% to nearly 7,000 if medical centers are overwhelmed, they estimated.
The projections come as Hong Kong recorded three Covid deaths in the ongoing omicron outbreak, after five months without any fatalities. The city’s hospitals are already overwhelmed due to a policy of isolating everyone who’s infected, including asymptomatic people, a practice it’s unlikely to sustain as cases surge.

[¯|_(ツ)_/¯]

Hi Specuvestor - happy CNY... wishing you and your family a peaceful and prosperous year!

Given the current situation, I decided to preserved my bullets instead of doubling down.  I am mindful that the dragging of C19 WFH is impacting both economy and personal healthy (again both physically and mentally).  

Do take some time to exercise and take care of those you care.
And, thank you very much for helping me all these years and hope to see you again.

Gratitude.


Watch Ghib Ojisan received a Health Risk Warning SMS, tested positive and go home to quarantine (he was staying in Amoy Hotel):
C19 is very common. It's just a matter of time...

[weijian]

Omicron is following as per script so far.

Omicron variant no more severe than original strain: WHO

The BA.2 variant of the Omicron coronavirus strain is not more severe than the original, the World Health Organization said on Tuesday.

Based on a sample of people from various countries, "we are not seeing a difference in severity of BA.1 compared to BA.2," Maria Van Kerkhove, a senior WHO official, said in an online question and answer session.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/governm...strain-who

[specuvestor]

Thanks Chialc

Comparison with HK is interesting cause we are of similar size and one of the 4 tigers. How policies will shape us for the next 25 years

(Bloomberg) -- In pursuit of a tough Covid Zero strategy to fight its worst ever coronavirus outbreak, Hong Kong is ceding ground to Singapore, a rival Asian financial and transport hub that’s been easing pandemic-linked restrictions to get its economy back on track.
Key data compiled by Bloomberg Economics economists Tamara Mast Hendersonand Eric Zhu show that some businesses, weary of stringent quarantine rules and the inability to travel freely, have been shifting to Singapore. The analysts have cut their economic growth forecast for Hong Kong by 0.6 percentage point to 1.4% this year, and expect Singapore’s gross domestic product to grow 4.7%.

--snip--

Bank deposits show the clearest sign of a shift. Deposit growth in Hong Kong has roughly halved in the last three years, dropping to an average of 4.3% year on year from 9.1% in the prior three years. Singapore’s deposit growth grew on average 7.3% between 2019 and 2021, about double the pace in the previous three years, according to data from the cities’ monetary authorities.
Foreign currency deposits in Singapore grew at an even faster pace: 82.7% year on year between January 2019 and June 2021.

[weijian]

This is totally expected and let's see what happens. The Europeans conquered North/South Americas partly by overwhelming the natives with germs (in addition to their guns and steel).

China locks down technology hub Shenzhen as Covid-19 cases jump

China approved the antiviral pill Paxlovid developed by Pfizer last month, a move seen by many as evidence of that planning.

The introduction of rapid antigen tests on Friday may also be a sign, with other countries shifting toward use of at-home tests when their lab testing systems were overwhelmed by broader circulation of the virus.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/governm...cases-jump

[specuvestor]

Shenzhen lock down seems to be ending in 7 days instead of 14 or more days. China is indeed moving to less draconian measure

https://www.scmp.com/tech/policy/article...industrial

This is totally expected and let's see what happens. The Europeans conquered North/South Americas partly by overwhelming the natives with germs (in addition to their guns and steel).

China locks down technology hub Shenzhen as Covid-19 cases jump

China approved the antiviral pill Paxlovid developed by Pfizer last month, a move seen by many as evidence of that planning.

The introduction of rapid antigen tests on Friday may also be a sign, with other countries shifting toward use of at-home tests when their lab testing systems were overwhelmed by broader circulation of the virus.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/governm...cases-jump

[specuvestor]

On the other hand, across the shores HK has also passed the peak infections and I think will likely see ~8k deaths eventually. SG was under pressure past 6 months on our balanced COVID policy with no less naysayers on either side of the fence. The results of sound policy is quite evident now. Personally I think SG could have done much better in execution on the infrastructures our previous leaders had built, but the difference in approach is already quite glaring

HK vaccination is about 3/4 and China is mainly non mRNA. That's why they have to keep to COVID zero policy

OTOH if SG follows the international script we should peak some time these 2 weeks, which is why it is unlikely that the government will tighten further

Comparison with HK is interesting cause we are of similar size and one of the 4 tigers. How policies will shape us for the next 25 years

(Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong will lift a ban on flights from nine countries including the U.S. as of April 1, and cut the time incoming travelers need to spend in hotel quarantine in half provided they test negative, Chief Executive Carrie Lam said Monday. 
Most social distancing measures and other curbs will remain in place to continue to curb the outbreak, Lam said. Those measures will be lifted in stages starting on April 21, providing there is no rebound in infections. The city first will resume dining-in at restaurants for dinner, allowing as many as four people to eat together, and reopen gyms, massage parlors, gyms and public entertainment centers. 
Plans for compulsory mass testing for the entire city will be put on pause, Lam said, citing challenges and the stress it would cause. Mass testing needs to be conducted at the start or near the end of a Covid outbreak in order to help eliminate transmission, she said. The government will keep monitoring the situation and consider the mass testing when necessary, she said. 
The sweeping changes in how Hong Kong handles its outbreak come after a mid-term review of the Asian financial hub’s approach, following Lam’s acknowledgment that people’s tolerance was fading and financial institutions were losing patience. 
The adjustments follow Chinese President Xi Jinping’s pledge to reduce the financial impact of its Covid-fighting policy. Xi signaled a shift in the country’s longstanding strategy, which Hong Kong also follows, that has minimized fatalities but weighed heavily on the economy.
Hong Kong reported 246 deaths and 14,149 new confirmed Covid-19 cases on Sunday, the lowest daily toll in more than three weeks, down from more than 50,000 a day earlier in the month.
In the second phase of lifting domestic curbs, other venues including bars and sports facilities, will reopen, with a maximum headcount of eight people per table, with longer opening times. In phase three, most restrictions will removed and only mask and vaccination requirements will remain in place.

[weijian]

Some time back, I learnt that one had to have the expectation that once folks are using OPM (Other People's Money), leakages and inefficiencies are prevalent. Buffett's concept of "stewardship" is rare unless there is skin in the game.

'Biggest fraud in a generation': The looting of the Covid relief plan known as PPP

The prevalence of Covid relief fraud has been known for some time, but the enormous scope and its disturbing implications are only now becoming clear.

Even if the highest estimates are inflated, the total fraud in all Covid relief funds amounts to a mind-boggling sum of taxpayer money that could rival the $579 billion in federal funds included in President Joe Biden’s massive 10-year infrastructure spending plan, according to prosecutors, government watchdogs and private experts who are trying to plug the leaks.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/justice...p-n1279664

[dreamybear]

It seems as we are slowing normalizing post-Covid, not only are online sales slowing, the overall consumer spending seems to be softening as well. Might be a good idea to think about the impact to our investments(companies).

Interestingly, the 2nd article below also featured Lever Style, a Hong Kong-listed maker of apparel for leading global brands which piqued my curiosity. Its website does feature a no. of well-known partners. Meanwhile, its valuation* can be considered attractive at P/E 7x, P/B 0.88, Yield 6.5%. But somewhat ironically, based on what was mentioned in the article, I think the financials/prospects may soften further due to the macroeconomic conditions.

-------------
Amazon aims to sublet, end warehouse leases as online sales cool
https://www.straitstimes.com/business/co...sales-cool

Pandemic-driven trade boom is fading, say Asia manufacturers
https://www.straitstimes.com/business/ec...-is-fading

https://www.leverstyle.com/en/partners/
*http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/quote/detail-quote.aspx?symbol=01346