What do you really know about investing?

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#28
(18-06-2014, 10:54 AM)Temperament Wrote: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-qui...link=MW_TD

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Don't get greedy
If you don't know your hurdle rate (or choose to ignore it), you put yourself at risk of losing your retirement. Consider this real life example:
In 2002 , a 70-something-year-old couple came in to see me, and told me their story. In 1998, they had a million dollars. Their cost of living was $50,000, and they had $15,000 coming to them from Social Security. This couple's investments needed to generate $35,000 a year to make up the difference. $35,000 is 3.5% of a million dollars, so leaving some room for inflation, their hurdle rate was about 4%. If they made 4%, they would probably cover their cost of living for the rest of their lives.
They had their money in Treasurys, CDs and cash. Interest rates at the time were 6.5%, so they were making $65,000 a year. They were well above their hurdle rate with relatively no risk. They spent $35,000 of their returns a year and banked the other $30,000. If you look at their situation mathematically, you can see they would never run out of money.
But what did they do? They saw that the technology stocks were making 20%-25 %. All of their friends were telling them about all the wonderful returns they were making.They started thinking about all the money they were leaving on the table by only making 6.5%. The market kept going up, and after two years, the couple finally succumbed to the mermaids' song. They put all their money into technology stocks at the beginning of 2000. We all know what happened next. In a little over a year, the dot-com bubble burst. The couple lost 90 % of their money. Their million dollars became $100,000.
Moral of the story
Don't take more risk than you need to accomplish your goals. It makes zero sense to take one iota more risk than you need to. If you can win the game with 4%, be happy. You're fortunate if that's all you need to make. You can invest very conservatively. You don't have to take a lot of risk. That's a good thing. Don't get mad at yourself because you're only making 6% when you could make 20%. Instead, be happy that making 6% exceeds your hurdle rate.

NB:-
Is it really for retiree only to invest this way?

Excellent reminder.

I think most of us fall prey to Greed easily, no matter how many times we tell ourselves not to.

I totally agree that not taking more risk than we need makes complete sense. Just that in the face of Greed, we often cannot seem to find our sense.
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RE: What do you really know about investing? - by gutman - 18-06-2014, 11:18 AM

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