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11-01-2014, 12:41 PM
Nice to hear from a fellow member here who hopes for Tesla to succeed (maybe there are other people here). Appreciate if you could elaborate more of your view on the company or the Citron report you cite?
Citron Research is a short-only newsletter, Tesla is a prime target since the stock ran up almost 500% last year from 1 Jan to 1 Oct'13. . The letter quoted was published in Sep'13, around the time when Tesla share price was at it's historical high around 190 so it was a good call as the share price has since came down and is now around 140-150. However, the current price were more driven from fire events that happened during that period rather than Citron's report. Before investing in Tesla one has to look at the probability of the company to realise expectations built into the stock price.
It's difficult to predict the future with 100% certainly, but this is true as with all high-growth companies staking claim on market share in new industry (e.g. Apple, Amazon, Starbucks). For these companies, there is always a chance of great success or failure.
Today, Tesla 's share price is highly priced if you look at it in terms of conventional value metrics (2013 9M revenue is $1.4M vs market cap of $18M around 10X annualised P/S ). There is high expectation for the upcoming 3rd gen Model E (US$35k model in 2017) to be a huge success and bring EV market to a tipping point.
However, Elon Musk, the Tesla Motors team, and their customers are anything but conventional. (1) Elon Musk has been compared to that of the late Steve Jobs, and he has already made a huge significant impact in the world (look no further than Space X) (2) The people working for the company are the best in their field (3) Technological leadership in EV, battery and charging (3) It's customers and fans are one of the most enthusiastic you could ever find in any industry (similar to Apple).
Citron Research is a short-only newsletter, Tesla is a prime target since the stock ran up almost 500% last year from 1 Jan to 1 Oct'13. . The letter quoted was published in Sep'13, around the time when Tesla share price was at it's historical high around 190 so it was a good call as the share price has since came down and is now around 140-150. However, the current price were more driven from fire events that happened during that period rather than Citron's report. Before investing in Tesla one has to look at the probability of the company to realise expectations built into the stock price.
It's difficult to predict the future with 100% certainly, but this is true as with all high-growth companies staking claim on market share in new industry (e.g. Apple, Amazon, Starbucks). For these companies, there is always a chance of great success or failure.
Today, Tesla 's share price is highly priced if you look at it in terms of conventional value metrics (2013 9M revenue is $1.4M vs market cap of $18M around 10X annualised P/S ). There is high expectation for the upcoming 3rd gen Model E (US$35k model in 2017) to be a huge success and bring EV market to a tipping point.
However, Elon Musk, the Tesla Motors team, and their customers are anything but conventional. (1) Elon Musk has been compared to that of the late Steve Jobs, and he has already made a huge significant impact in the world (look no further than Space X) (2) The people working for the company are the best in their field (3) Technological leadership in EV, battery and charging (3) It's customers and fans are one of the most enthusiastic you could ever find in any industry (similar to Apple).