SingTel

[Drizzt]

hi corydorus, i say arpu will fall because in developed markets, they are moving towards 3g or lte. basically its a data based protocol which is why they are promoting internet via mobile network. voice delivery on such a network is a small cost to the telco.

the popular whatsapp, pingchat and skype,fring have made voip and messaging a very possible medium of communication. in actual fact what my friend talked abt that voip will replace traditional voice is very near.

sms is totally redundent now with whatsapp.

given that out of 44 bucks u pay 20 bucks for data and 5 bucks for caller id, u likely pay 19 bucks for voice. when the necessity for voice decreases, would people pay 19 for voice?

i written abit in this article on at & t going to have free us to us voice calling. it goes to show this future may not be far away >> http://www.investmentmoats.com/stock-mar...d-singtel/

hope this helps

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Drizzt, I read your article with great interest.

There is one thing i cannot understand. I would think Singapore and Australia are considered Developed Market.
"ARPU for voice will fall." seems doesn't match with current result. What will be the ignition ?

thanks for the indepth analysis.

Hi Dizzt,

Great analysis you have there, i will take time to dig more info from your website.

1 thing i like about Singtel is their ventures into oversea market. Yes there always have risks but so far their returns have been nice, although not super. I do hope that these oversea market can be the future growth drivers, am i expect too highly? To console myself at least they are still buying telco business, not some funny property or F&B business

If they only resting on local market then i will be concerned, 5m population market there is how much more they can get. Buying m1 or starhub is like just collect your dividend and don't expect too much. Well i can be wrong.

Regarding the lawsuit i guess these type of civil lawsuit will drag on for long time, even there is outcome usually the settlement can be milder. (need not settled in court)

As for the dividend, i don't stress too much on dividend. I treat it as a bonus, 5% is a nice bonus.

hi there, the 5% yield for me is good. heres why. its lower than starhub or m1 but its backed by a more diversified cashflow. this 5% is 2bil and since 2003 their free cashflow have been able to give that. ask me which of the 3 telco likely to carry this tradition.

if they follow what starhub do which is giveout all their fcf, their yield will be around 7.7% which is what starhub is yielding

the kicker is really in all its problems. singtel is doing what telefonica france telecom does in spanning out. if they are great managers, that fcf from these emerging mkt ventures could be the real kicker.

take a look at their cashflow contribution, i notice that these emerging mkt cashflow have been growing this workyear.

on the last note, most of the rich men around the world like li ka shing and carlos slim based their empire on telcos. if telcos are dying, u should see them diversifiying fast