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12-10-2013, 06:47 PM
China seems to be going towards US's old path.....inefficiency, huge oil imports and possibly trade deficits in the future......
While US is gaining from shale gas....less oil imports and lower trade deficits and maybe trade surplus when they start to export their gas.....factories are setting up in US to take advantage of the cheap gas......
So instead of looking at China.....one might start to look at US......US currency might appreciate while RMB.......if those Chinese in china has an opportunity, they would straight away convert their RMB into other currencies and get it out of china....which is why China is trying to 'control' the convertibility of RMB(because they know many people wants out)....hence RMB in the medium term might depreciate.....
While US is gaining from shale gas....less oil imports and lower trade deficits and maybe trade surplus when they start to export their gas.....factories are setting up in US to take advantage of the cheap gas......
So instead of looking at China.....one might start to look at US......US currency might appreciate while RMB.......if those Chinese in china has an opportunity, they would straight away convert their RMB into other currencies and get it out of china....which is why China is trying to 'control' the convertibility of RMB(because they know many people wants out)....hence RMB in the medium term might depreciate.....
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