Penguin International

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What is the fair value for this Penguin ?

Penguin's business is now riding on and into a sweet spot - increasing orders/revenue on the demand side (for both new-build offshore crew boats for sale, and increasing charter income from its own ferry/offshore crew boats fleet), and expanded current production capacity of up to 7 crew boats a quarter, or approx. 30 crew boats a year, on the supply side.

Based on the latest (30Jun13) NAV/share of $0.1547 and 2Q's EPS of $0.0089/quarter (or $0.036/share), Penguin's NAV/share could well hit $0.175 by 31Dec13. And based on 2Q's running rate, Penguin's after-tax FCF (before capex) could well hit $30.0m a year, or approx. $0.045/share.

A PER of 8x on a yearly EPS of $0.036 will give a FV estimate of $0.288; and a multiple of 6.5x on a FCF/share of $0.045 will give a FV estimate of $0.2925. Are these FV estimates too far-fetched?