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11-10-2024, 03:52 PM
(This post was last modified: 11-10-2024, 03:56 PM by specuvestor.)
After a surprising 50bp cut in Sept to play catch up for not cutting end July, US inflation will likely be flattish on a YoY basis in 4Q especially with brazil drought and rising oil price, so market expecting rates to go 3% next year probably unfounded.
Sep CPI 2.441%
Sep Core CPI 3.311%
As of 10 Oct Cleveland Fed expecting
Oct CPI 2.55%
Oct Core CPI 3.34%
Sep PCE 2.06%
Sep Core PCE 2.62%
Oct PCE 2.19%
Oct Core PCE 2.71%
Sep CPI 2.441%
Sep Core CPI 3.311%
As of 10 Oct Cleveland Fed expecting
Oct CPI 2.55%
Oct Core CPI 3.34%
Sep PCE 2.06%
Sep Core PCE 2.62%
Oct PCE 2.19%
Oct Core PCE 2.71%
(12-09-2024, 07:05 PM)specuvestor Wrote: CPI came in almost as expected with hopes of 50bp cut in Sept evaporated but market is still looking at 50bp cut in Nov and Dec which I disagree. Best case is to head towards 4% fed funds with 25bp cuts as headlines inflation probably hit 2% by 4Q. Fixed Income market is still irrational after a 2 year negative yield curve trying to flip to more reasonable positive.
Aug CPI 2.531%
Aug Core CPI 3.197%
As of 11 Sep Cleveland Fed expecting
Sep CPI 2.29%
Sep Core CPI 3.11%
Aug PCE 2.33%
Aug Core PCE 2.77%
Sep PCE 2.09%
Sep Core PCE 2.66%
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