The Hour Glass

[weijian]

i am quite worried about youngsters spending tens of thousands on watches, but i'm just an old folly...
i rather they spend the money investing in the companies making/selling such products...

youngsters, being young and with their longest run-way, they will have the most fulfillment being value investors then all things else!

It is dependent on their source of money. If youngsters are using their parents' money or from dubious sources, or even getting into debt to spend on their horological hobbies, then there is a cause for concern. It will be unhealthy.

But if their thirst for horology drives them to improve their earning power - whether is it accelerating their careers or creating side hustles, then it would be a great plus. They will need to save to buy these luxury watches and that cultivates a saving habit rather than spending it on merry and drink. As an old folly myself, I know merry/drink would probably be a waste of money but luxury mechanical watches are not. The latter is timeless and are probably great investments if done right, isn't it?

Personally, I think having a "long run-way" is over-rated. Warren Buffett's newspaper boy career and his first pinball machine at 17, is only unique for the Omaha Oracle. He is the Oracle because there are not a lot of people like him. End of the day, different people have different strokes. Different background, different make and different paths. There is no right, and there is no wrong.

Finally, now back to the luxury mechanical watch. This industry is getting more anti-fragile.

(1) Smartwatches are getting the smartphone-only millennials to get used to wearing something on their wrist. They will be ripe as potential customers to sell to when their earning power or interests intersect with horology.

(2) As long as watchmakers remember the 2015 oversupply situation and do not step out of line, focusing on quality over quantity, the long term tail wind from an image-conscious Asian population will allow robust growth.