Jeremy Grantham says stocks could be heading for a ‘melt-up'

[weijian]

I still remember Apple traded close to PE of 10 in 2016. 

This post has always been at the back of my mind, somehow I cannot shrug off the thought of missing out on a fantastic stock at a bargain price/valuation(granted hindsight is 20/20).

In any case, with Facebook now trading at around 12x P/E, will I let history repeat itself ?

Strangely enuff, at this pt in time, I am still not convinced to take up a position.

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Mark Zuckerberg issues dire economic warning to Meta employees
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/8983faa4-f8e...-dire.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META?p=META

One of the most dangerous behavioral traps that we can fall into, is to "try to re live and make right a past regret". it explains why investors buy into the "next" alpha stock after missing out on the real one (those people getting into Rivian after missing out on Tesla), or the tendency for girls who suffered from abusive dads, to marry guys similar to their dads later on in life.

P/E is a convenient and useful tool. But it is also frequently criticized as been "to the man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail" syndrome.

Even when we put business models aside, "Apple at P/E=10" and "FB at P/E=12" are entirely different animals. Apple at P/E=10 came as a result of "stable earnings with little growth" (there was even a slight drop in 2016) and share price responded accordingly. "FB at P/E=12" came as a result of "increasing earnings but with huge share price drop".

Your hesitance is probably much justified.