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09-12-2011, 08:29 AM
I wonder whether the lastest residential property demand cooling measures from the government would hurt Casa's business volume and profitability in a big way going forward. After some thoughts, my own conclusion is unlikely. Why? Because Casa's range of home appliances (mainly diffrerent ranges of mid-price imported cookers, cooker hoods, fridges, freezers, water heaters and, to a smaller extent, washing machines and dryers, etc.) are mostly targeted at HDB new flats, new condo projects targeted at the masses, and the general replacement market. So based on the massive number of newbuildings underway, overall demand from these segments should be sustainable in the next 3 years.
Based Casa's FY11 EPS of $0.0324, assuming profit contribution from the 27.39%-owned associate Fiamma Holdings Bhd just stays at the same level, we are talking about Casa deing able to deliver a total EPS of close to $0.10 in the next 3 FYs. From this, we can expect a total dividend payout of $0.03, assuming Casa just keeps the yearly dividend payout at $0.01.
Based on the last done share price of $0.12, a total EPS of $0.10 over the next 3 FYs will translate into a total potential gain of 83.3% (or 27.8% annualized), of which 25% (or 8.3% anualized) would be in the form of dividends. Going into this 3-year investment journey, based on Casa's 30Sep11 NAV/share at $0.2189 (of which over $0.04 is represented by net cash), we also have the comfort of solid asset-backing. The coming $0.01/share Final dividend for FY11 itself is already bringing a 8.3% gain more or less upfront.
Based Casa's FY11 EPS of $0.0324, assuming profit contribution from the 27.39%-owned associate Fiamma Holdings Bhd just stays at the same level, we are talking about Casa deing able to deliver a total EPS of close to $0.10 in the next 3 FYs. From this, we can expect a total dividend payout of $0.03, assuming Casa just keeps the yearly dividend payout at $0.01.
Based on the last done share price of $0.12, a total EPS of $0.10 over the next 3 FYs will translate into a total potential gain of 83.3% (or 27.8% annualized), of which 25% (or 8.3% anualized) would be in the form of dividends. Going into this 3-year investment journey, based on Casa's 30Sep11 NAV/share at $0.2189 (of which over $0.04 is represented by net cash), we also have the comfort of solid asset-backing. The coming $0.01/share Final dividend for FY11 itself is already bringing a 8.3% gain more or less upfront.