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I wonder how confident Accordia is? Is it already a done deal, something the public does not yet know. Or is the deal still very much in the molding process?
Will they turn around suddenly and propose to inject all the remaining golf course into the trust incl the orix ones... With all the recently announced restructuring and actions, surely the mother (MBK) has great intentions, for itself.
At this juncture, the only publicly announced info is a vague indicative price and their intention to acquire all the golf course assets. I don’t think they care if the trust remains listed after that. It is like they just want their golf courses back and whatever is left of the trust is simply scrap metal. Accordia folks are not in the business of corporate deals outside of golf courses. But their parent MBK is…
Whatever the final proposal is, it is likely to involve a substantial divestment of the trust assets and should involve an EGM for unitholders to vote. And a minimal required 50% pass.
Simple exercise to have a feel if deal can pass if it comes to a vote.
Using numbers from AR 2019 (as of 17 June 2019):
Accordia sponsor: 28.85%
Public float: 58.95%
Institutions (excl accordia): 12.2% (100% - accordia and public float. Seems to be mainly Daiwa and Hibiki path).
Total: 100%
Assume only Accordia (28.85%) cannot vote and all the rest can vote (incl daiwa), 35.6% of the total units is required to vote No for no deal.
Assume somehow the institutions were swayed to vote yes to the deal, then it boils down to the retail investors vote to decide the outcome. This means for no deal, at least 60.4% of the retail investors group must vote No. That means around 391 million of the total 1.1 billion units of the trust.
(Edit, add: Above numbers assumed everyone turn up to vote)
There are around 3500 retail investors. Everyone has different backgrounds, objectives and offer price that they are willing to let go.
There are the IPO investors (S$0.97), bottom fishers (S$0.49) and somewhere in between.
There had been a total distribution of S$0.23 since IPO.
Looking at the past 5 years since IPO, both unit price and distributions has definitely been volatile. It averages a payout of around 4 to 5 cents per year. And currently it seems to be on an up cycle as reflected in the recent half year performance.
How the offer will be made will also affect unitholders vote. I.e. direct pay out of $xx/unit after the divestment or remain invest in a cash trust with uncertainties. I think typical unitholders of business trusts are less risk-taking.
A large portion of the 3500 retail investors are Japanese (info from an ex agt director during past agm) and we may not just assume everybody has the same info or outlook.
(Edit, add: Egm likely will be held in sg just like agm. This might have an impact on japanese investors voting)
Will they turn around suddenly and propose to inject all the remaining golf course into the trust incl the orix ones... With all the recently announced restructuring and actions, surely the mother (MBK) has great intentions, for itself.
At this juncture, the only publicly announced info is a vague indicative price and their intention to acquire all the golf course assets. I don’t think they care if the trust remains listed after that. It is like they just want their golf courses back and whatever is left of the trust is simply scrap metal. Accordia folks are not in the business of corporate deals outside of golf courses. But their parent MBK is…
Whatever the final proposal is, it is likely to involve a substantial divestment of the trust assets and should involve an EGM for unitholders to vote. And a minimal required 50% pass.
Simple exercise to have a feel if deal can pass if it comes to a vote.
Using numbers from AR 2019 (as of 17 June 2019):
Accordia sponsor: 28.85%
Public float: 58.95%
Institutions (excl accordia): 12.2% (100% - accordia and public float. Seems to be mainly Daiwa and Hibiki path).
Total: 100%
Assume only Accordia (28.85%) cannot vote and all the rest can vote (incl daiwa), 35.6% of the total units is required to vote No for no deal.
Assume somehow the institutions were swayed to vote yes to the deal, then it boils down to the retail investors vote to decide the outcome. This means for no deal, at least 60.4% of the retail investors group must vote No. That means around 391 million of the total 1.1 billion units of the trust.
(Edit, add: Above numbers assumed everyone turn up to vote)
There are around 3500 retail investors. Everyone has different backgrounds, objectives and offer price that they are willing to let go.
There are the IPO investors (S$0.97), bottom fishers (S$0.49) and somewhere in between.
There had been a total distribution of S$0.23 since IPO.
Looking at the past 5 years since IPO, both unit price and distributions has definitely been volatile. It averages a payout of around 4 to 5 cents per year. And currently it seems to be on an up cycle as reflected in the recent half year performance.
How the offer will be made will also affect unitholders vote. I.e. direct pay out of $xx/unit after the divestment or remain invest in a cash trust with uncertainties. I think typical unitholders of business trusts are less risk-taking.
A large portion of the 3500 retail investors are Japanese (info from an ex agt director during past agm) and we may not just assume everybody has the same info or outlook.
(Edit, add: Egm likely will be held in sg just like agm. This might have an impact on japanese investors voting)