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With the seemingly end of MCU Phase 3, some good discussion about the next few years for Disney.
Disney, IP, and "Returns to Marginal Affinity"
The Bear Case for Disney Affinity
Regardless, if there’s a bear case for Disney in the years to come, it’s that relative affinity will decline. It’s well known that Disney’s revenues (especially in its motion pictures group) will drop substantially in CY 2020, 2021 and 2022 as compared to 2018 and 2019, but a reduction in affinity would be far more consequential.
While the current heights of the Marvel Cinematic Universe were themselves hard to imagine years ago, it seems likely the future will be more modest. The MCU’s two central characters, Iron Man and Captain America, have exited the franchise. The third lead, Thor, doesn’t have a film due till 2022 (five years after his last). In addition, the franchise’s recent performance was supercharged by the fact that it was the explicit culmination of a 22 film arc. It will take years for Marvel to build equivalent audience investment – and even then, it’ll be attempting to do something again, rather than something never seen before.
In addition, Marvel’s forward slate contains fewer films per year and is comprised of significantly less popular characters and IP. It will be nearly a year after the last film in the “Infinity Saga”, Spider-Man: Far From Home, until another MCU title launches. And this title, 2020’s Black Widow, focuses on one of the least popular of the original Avengers and is set in between films the audience has already seen. It’s then another six months until Marvel releases its next film, The Eternals, which is based on virtually unknown IP. The next title is Shang-Chi and The Legend of the Ten Rings, based on another little-known Marvel superhero, followed by a sequel to Doctor Strange (the lowest performing of Marvel’s last four films that focused on a new MCU character). It’s not until H2 2021, two and a half years after Avengers: Endgame, that a major sequel with a large fandom is released (Thor: Love and Thunder). And not for nothing, the DC universe seems to have finally hit its stride after years of languishing.
Over the next few years, Star Wars will also transition from having one major film release per year, to having only a single TV series. While Disney has suggested that a temporary pause/reduction in “Star Wars” content is good for the franchise’s overall health, it’s hard to imagine affinity for the IP will grow during this period.
And at Pixar, it looks like the next two to three years will consist of original films, not sequels to existing IP like Toy Story or The Incredibles. This is good in the sense that it allows Disney to generate new IP (and Pixar has done this several times already), but Disney isn’t prepped to exploit it right away. It takes time to build theme park attractions and scale merchandise sales, among other things.
The Bull Case for Disney Affinity
Still, there’s reason for optimism. For one, Disney’s storytelling expertise and existing franchise affinity provides an outsized chance that its original IP and spinoffs will work. Guardians of the Galaxy, for example, proved that Marvel is capable of turnings the most obscure and odd title into a major franchise. It will be hard for The Eternals to replicate this level of success, but the precedent is there. Similarly, Black Panther shows how a successful adaptation of a diverse character such as Shang-Chi might perform.
It’s also worth noting that the Marvel Cinematic Universe itself was built on runner-up IP. Marvel Studios would almost certainly have built around Spider-Man (the most popular comic book character in the world), X-Men, and Fantastic Four (“Marvel’s First Family”) if it had the choice, not then-unknown characters such as Hawkeye, Thor and Black Widow. But it didn’t and built an empire all the same. There’s no better case study on the power of quality storytelling. And to this end, the popularity of Doctor Strange has grown substantially since his 2016 debut.
https://www.matthewball.vc/all/marginalaffinity
Disney, IP, and "Returns to Marginal Affinity"
The Bear Case for Disney Affinity
Regardless, if there’s a bear case for Disney in the years to come, it’s that relative affinity will decline. It’s well known that Disney’s revenues (especially in its motion pictures group) will drop substantially in CY 2020, 2021 and 2022 as compared to 2018 and 2019, but a reduction in affinity would be far more consequential.
While the current heights of the Marvel Cinematic Universe were themselves hard to imagine years ago, it seems likely the future will be more modest. The MCU’s two central characters, Iron Man and Captain America, have exited the franchise. The third lead, Thor, doesn’t have a film due till 2022 (five years after his last). In addition, the franchise’s recent performance was supercharged by the fact that it was the explicit culmination of a 22 film arc. It will take years for Marvel to build equivalent audience investment – and even then, it’ll be attempting to do something again, rather than something never seen before.
In addition, Marvel’s forward slate contains fewer films per year and is comprised of significantly less popular characters and IP. It will be nearly a year after the last film in the “Infinity Saga”, Spider-Man: Far From Home, until another MCU title launches. And this title, 2020’s Black Widow, focuses on one of the least popular of the original Avengers and is set in between films the audience has already seen. It’s then another six months until Marvel releases its next film, The Eternals, which is based on virtually unknown IP. The next title is Shang-Chi and The Legend of the Ten Rings, based on another little-known Marvel superhero, followed by a sequel to Doctor Strange (the lowest performing of Marvel’s last four films that focused on a new MCU character). It’s not until H2 2021, two and a half years after Avengers: Endgame, that a major sequel with a large fandom is released (Thor: Love and Thunder). And not for nothing, the DC universe seems to have finally hit its stride after years of languishing.
Over the next few years, Star Wars will also transition from having one major film release per year, to having only a single TV series. While Disney has suggested that a temporary pause/reduction in “Star Wars” content is good for the franchise’s overall health, it’s hard to imagine affinity for the IP will grow during this period.
And at Pixar, it looks like the next two to three years will consist of original films, not sequels to existing IP like Toy Story or The Incredibles. This is good in the sense that it allows Disney to generate new IP (and Pixar has done this several times already), but Disney isn’t prepped to exploit it right away. It takes time to build theme park attractions and scale merchandise sales, among other things.
The Bull Case for Disney Affinity
Still, there’s reason for optimism. For one, Disney’s storytelling expertise and existing franchise affinity provides an outsized chance that its original IP and spinoffs will work. Guardians of the Galaxy, for example, proved that Marvel is capable of turnings the most obscure and odd title into a major franchise. It will be hard for The Eternals to replicate this level of success, but the precedent is there. Similarly, Black Panther shows how a successful adaptation of a diverse character such as Shang-Chi might perform.
It’s also worth noting that the Marvel Cinematic Universe itself was built on runner-up IP. Marvel Studios would almost certainly have built around Spider-Man (the most popular comic book character in the world), X-Men, and Fantastic Four (“Marvel’s First Family”) if it had the choice, not then-unknown characters such as Hawkeye, Thor and Black Widow. But it didn’t and built an empire all the same. There’s no better case study on the power of quality storytelling. And to this end, the popularity of Doctor Strange has grown substantially since his 2016 debut.
https://www.matthewball.vc/all/marginalaffinity