(25-11-2018, 10:31 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: On top of that revenue looks flat and profits are on the edge of becoming losses.
I wouldnt be that optimistic on their pork business as Aussie side experiencing bad drought conditions and pushing grain prices through the roof. This is mentioned in the latest q3.
I expect them to go into loss making quarters... At some point they will be unable to pay the unsustainably high yearly dividend as well.
All these points are very fair and valid. It would be foolish to think that QAF will not run into losses, or that based on this FY's earnings, past FY's dividends will be maintained.
I am of the opinion that the market is likely to have taken all these into account, in the pricing of QAF. In most cases, stock prices follow information releases. It is unlikely for QAF to be priced at present levels if there were not any announcement of negative developments.
Our task (or mine, at least) is to decide whether such negative developments will impair the company's future earnings permanently, thereby reducing the long-term value of the company.