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(26-10-2018, 10:32 PM)karlmarx Wrote: The current bear market has lasted longer than I have expected. Could this be the start of the bear everyone has been expecting?
Market indices are certainly lower, but I think the market is still very much efficient as the good stocks still aren't really cheap. I haven't been able to buy anything I've been eyeing, yet. I guess we are still some way from the kind of fear that will produce next decade's multi bagger...
Actually I am surprised this selloff took so long!
(16-07-2018, 11:02 AM)AQ. Wrote: tariffs on 200b of China imports+retaliation in Aug/Sep
Fed raising in Sep + potential 4th thereafter
US elections hence more hawkish rhetorics on Nov 6
throw in a couple more right-wing swings in elections + rise in CPI and i think we have enough to send equities into tailspin in 2H18
real rates already +ve, which is a sharp change in paradigm among global CBs.
Personally i have raised, and will continue to raise cash+safe holdings. Risk/Reward not favorable by any measure.
time to test if the 10-11yr equity dump cycles materialises.
The final straw prob came in FOMC where Powell&gang, in his hike-till-something-breaks mode, suggests hiking past neutral.
I think with Fed having plenty of ammo to reverse, fwd guidance, QE + PBoC essentially already starting stealth easing, a huge GFC is not imminent for next few mths. The current sentiment reminds me more of 2007 where people start to see cracks; whether it turns into 2008 where everything gives way remains to b seen.
The significant thing to me,other than US mids in Nov (if Dems retake house, congress should start to be lameduck+Trump impeachment tussle; otherwise it will be a strong endorsement of Trump leading to more fire&fury), is European Parliament elections in 2019. If Bannon/Farage/LePen & gang succeeds in doing what Trump did in swinging right and Nationalism overwhelms Globalisation leading to a new world order, the outcome will be a serious black swan.