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25-11-2016, 04:03 PM
(This post was last modified: 25-11-2016, 04:35 PM by specuvestor.)
Malaysia is an enigma where word and actions are diverting. EPF can pay 6.4% interest while KLCI yield is 3%. US$100b reserve yet allow IMDB to default and the first to scare the market 2 weeks ago on offshore MYR convertibility as well as non repatriation of sales. Seems like EPF is big beneficiary of weaker MYR
http://www.pionline.com/article/20160503...nt-program
Yet Malaysia is expanding 4.1% in 2016, probably top quartile performing emerging markets. When I visit Malaysia I feel that Malaysia is inflationary. even though the official numbers say less than 2%. I actually think it is stagflationary.
MYR is no longer a large weight in SGD basket I presume, and I sense CNY has probably the biggest non-USD influence. We have moved from 1:1 MYR 50 years ago to 1:3 now, and I do not sense Malaysia economic growth nor inflation / interest rate policies affecting us as much as say 25 years ago. If Malaysia is really going 4% growth <2% inflation with 3.5% unemployment rate (Economist's dream of NAIRU) then I reckon SGDMYR will go 2.50 next few years or so. Obviously I am skeptical.
http://www.pionline.com/article/20160503...nt-program
Yet Malaysia is expanding 4.1% in 2016, probably top quartile performing emerging markets. When I visit Malaysia I feel that Malaysia is inflationary. even though the official numbers say less than 2%. I actually think it is stagflationary.
MYR is no longer a large weight in SGD basket I presume, and I sense CNY has probably the biggest non-USD influence. We have moved from 1:1 MYR 50 years ago to 1:3 now, and I do not sense Malaysia economic growth nor inflation / interest rate policies affecting us as much as say 25 years ago. If Malaysia is really going 4% growth <2% inflation with 3.5% unemployment rate (Economist's dream of NAIRU) then I reckon SGDMYR will go 2.50 next few years or so. Obviously I am skeptical.
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward
Think Asset-Business-Structure (ABS)
Think Asset-Business-Structure (ABS)